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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    4 minutes ago, Snowjokes92 said:

    Anyone please got ecm snow charts. I just cant believe the output. Please someone pinch me!! 

     

    I wonder if steve murr is ok after server crash. Hope hes okay!:rofl:

    Not as good as you'd think tonight. Only places with more than a couple of inches are eastern counties and Scotland. But MASSIVE pinch of salt needed. The country would turn white eventually on the ECM 12Z no matter what the snow chart says.

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    Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

    Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

    Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire/Herts border 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, crisp, calm and sunny
  • Location: Bedfordshire/Herts border 40m asl
    16 minutes ago, tinybill said:

    iknow  its  fantasy world

    gensnh-15-1-276.png

    gensnh-15-1-288.png

    Another blizzard *yawns* 

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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

    ECH1-144-9.thumb.gif.448e3435a43136d6eb8dd25cd1f68212.gif

    i showed this chart to my Land Rover and a little bit of engine wee came out.

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    I had the misfortune of going on TWO, anywho fantastic NWP I’ll be incredibly surprised if there is not a Thames Streamer possibly more than one. Toasty SSTs in the Thames Estuary that caught my eye. 

    82A38DDC-2C29-4AA6-9090-59022DA9843B.thumb.png.a0b67a880b6a1d5f3274137519369135.png

     

    The North Sea will be a giant snow machine next week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, ice, cold
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
    1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

    Now I'm actually a bit scared. I think the country can just about recover from 4/5 days of this. But the ECM op gives just the hint that this may go on 2 or 3 weeks, because it gets the Greenland High in the right spot, and once it gets there it might be hard to shift. If uppers stay below minus 10 for two weeks, there will be big consequences across the country. Just how long will the schools be happy to stay shut for when there's 3 inches of snow falling every day on the east coast?

    How  much are the modes in agreement about the potential for 2-3 weeks?

    Because it looks to novice-me like most of the recent stuff has had some kind of suggestion that this is 2-3 weeks, not 4-5 days. 

    I don't suppose you could do one of your summarising things of how many models weakly or strongly suggest 1 week and how many suggest 2 or 3, could you? 

    (And if schools are closed, people are off work in every other job looking after their kids... etc., etc.)

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    You know it's a big one when the servers crash. Best easterly I've ever seen modelled from Perm (Russia) to Poznan to Peterborough to Pembrokeshire and then ending up in Philadelphia. Phantastic!! 

    In the meantime, it's time to start getting screen wash topped up, possibly snow chains for tyres and a shovel and salt. All aboard the Siberian express!! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    UKMO extended remaining easterly

    ukm2.2018030112_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.6c78c0d281370af60d76452d71af6dc9.png

    Difficult to see how that compares with the other models at 168 - ECM 12z had the Iberian low a bit flatter and with a bit more troughing to the east at that time span...

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    Posted
  • Location: Central Beds
  • Location: Central Beds
    8 minutes ago, tinybill said:

    https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

     

    just look what  happens after84hr!!! i think i should email this to bbc weather !!:shok::yahoo::cold: its  day after tomorrow  weather!!

    Looking at the precip chart, surely its overestimating the ability of the Atlantic to regain control, eventhough in deep FI?

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    While it's quiet..with only 506 members on here..:D..Here are some welcome to spring charts from the GEFS 12z..the BEAST is coming!! :cold::shok:

    0_168_850tmp.png

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    17_168_850tmp.png

    18_168_850tmp.png

    20_168_850tmp.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
    11 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Not as good as you'd think tonight. Only places with more than a couple of inches are eastern counties and Scotland. But MASSIVE pinch of salt needed. The country would turn white eventually on the ECM 12Z no matter what the snow chart says.

    Agreed thank you. Was just curious. No how unreliable they are.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    While it's quiet..with only 506 members on here..:D..Here are some welcome to spring charts from the GEFS 12z..the BEAST is coming!! :cold::shok:

    0_168_850tmp.png

    1_168_850tmp.png

    3_168_850tmp.png

    4_168_850tmp.png

    7_168_850tmp.png

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    12_168_850tmp.png

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    17_168_850tmp.png

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    20_168_850tmp.png

    A few perbs in there like the ECM 12z op run - P9, 10, 17, 18, 20 etc...we're looking for that Iberian low to become 'flatter' and move somewhat east.

    Edited by Froze were the Days
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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    EC 120 (and the rest!) show a synoptic evolution modelled that we have not seen for some 30 years, with the orientation of the high and the associated cold pool combining to create a "Tsunami" type easterly flow.

    superlatives have all been used..... so just look and behold.

    IMG_3362.thumb.PNG.8926a6d96cfc314e826adcd46c216403.PNG

    IMG_3363.thumb.PNG.2823cf9b5f2ee493e381ea8cf53e29a4.PNG

    IMG_3364.thumb.PNG.b287800492245324baeae3af90f0102e.PNG

    Ps...

    SSW....'cheers :0 

    Edited by chris55
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Late to it tonight, and just starting to view the commentry here on the ECM and then the crash.  So I knew what to expect before even looking at Meteoceil!

    In my view this is nearly nailed which is good because as resident weather geek, I've promised an update to work colleagues tomorrow.  Would like to see the ARPEGE issue sorted by the 0z runs - it's a decent model for the short timescale it runs for and I'd like it on board.

    Aside - this event is seriously unreported in my view, particularly BBC.

    looking forward to the 18z!

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)

    Site crash arrived at the worst possible time. Wife's birthday and was forced to do the hoovering. Thankfully the distraction allowed me to view the ECM in one sitting. Jeez, did we die and go to heaven?

    JMA sums up today's output pretty accurately (stella).

     

    tempresult_nnl5.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

    Looking at next week I’m wondering when the first few schools shut due to either the freezing cold or snow, I’m thinking the conditions will start to become a problem from Monday evening, probably Monday morning for the east. Although the uppers look a little marginal ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
    24 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    UKMO extended remaining easterly

    ukm2.2018030112_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.6c78c0d281370af60d76452d71af6dc9.png

    yep looks like that low to West of Spain is taking more easterly route through Med than North -East through France on the ECM.

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    Posted
  • Location: Fareham, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Severe Weather events
  • Location: Fareham, Hampshire
    1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

    Looking at next week I’m wondering when the first few schools shut due to either the freezing cold or snow, I’m thinking the conditions will start to become a problem from Monday evening, probably Monday morning for the east. Although the uppers look a little marginal ? 

    Can’t imagine it will take long for them to start closing, I was shocked to find out that some close because they can’t afford to heat the buildings in this severe weather. Shocking state of affairs!

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    Evening each:)

    Well the beast is coming,it's going to get in cold terms like Feb 1991

    Now starts the fun ,looking at charts for where the snow will fall and when 

    At the moment it's looking like Tuesday onwards starting in the east ,moving across most parts on Wednesday and lasting till at least the following weekend 

    A proper cold spell coming for most of us with some seeing more  snow than others ,bit early to say where but the east and southeast look favourite at this stage 

    Injoy the coming weather and stay safe,:cold:

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    Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
    2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    I’m. not  a mod but the thread is drifting away from model discussion and analysis - that’s not an invitation to have a punfest either unless your post is model related! 

    Indeed, it' sno fun when you come on here looking for the 192 18z and cant find it under the snizzle. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    ICON rolling out and looks almost identical to its 12z. Perhaps just a smidge south. A smidge!!!

    E64576D4-AAC8-4E96-BF52-9CCF3A4188B6.thumb.png.8962f1a1ab49697f6e1ad7985cf39117.pngD368BC77-9152-439F-846C-4B7D2F131B66.thumb.png.cd7d4829f9fee2719c2b7e66d663c724.png

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

    Thank you!

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