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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


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Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Thought at one point the ecm was gona be further south with the easterly at 96 hours but all got shoved north again next frame!what a set of models tonight though!!cold starts sunday and lasts pretty much all of next week at least!!snow a plenty aswell!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    They were hiding the Ensembles......all the Ops are MASSIVE mild outliers.....?

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    iknow  its  fantasy world

    gensnh-15-1-276.png

    gensnh-15-1-288.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
    8 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    Just had to talk to the wife for an entire hour!! Please don’t let that happen again :acute:

    mean looked very good, here’s the graph 

    A8A8FBE8-639B-4165-8C0A-22B829514003.thumb.png.9a0b498df37b16debdaff3979129375d.png

     

    Omfg !! The mean is probably best we have seen on here! That is truly astonishing. Mean doesnt go above -7/-8 from 26th to the end of the run!!

     

    No wonder servers crashed!!!

    Edited by Snowjokes92
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean..oh my stars ????it's beautiful ???????:cold-emoji:

    ECMAVGEU12_120_2.png

    ECMAVGEU12_144_2.png

    ECMAVGEU12_168_2.png

    ECMAVGEU12_192_2.png

    ECMAVGEU12_216_2.png

    ECMAVGEU12_240_2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex

    I was looking for Spring and had to use the CFS (I know but heck nothing goes far enough)....

    I can`t find it!!!!!

    cfsnh-0-762.png?06

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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl

    Look into my eyes,not around the eyes but look into my eyes.

    You are going to view the most orgasmic ukmo 144 chart you'd think imaginable,when you wake you will proceed to tell nobody....................and,your back in the room....

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    Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
    8 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    Just had to talk to the wife for an entire hour!! Please don’t let that happen again :acute:

    ECM mean looked very good, here’s the graph, op on the cold side from D7 -10

    A8A8FBE8-639B-4165-8C0A-22B829514003.thumb.png.9a0b498df37b16debdaff3979129375d.png

    Anyone got the UKMO D7?

     

    My Mum said my mean is better than yours 

    Ner Ner ne Ner Ner 

    DB7163A2-99DF-46D7-93D8-DF52DF54DAD1.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
    2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    Servers crashing under weight of traffic. Anyone would think there was an impending major weather event.

    Yeah what’s all the fuss about??

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    ECM individual ensembles report: Another surreal experience. Every bit as cold as the previous two runs with a slight shift to Wednesday for the very coldest runs - but Thursday still a potential record breaker for March.

    An interesting trend is another lobe of cold stretching through Scotland and there is even a run with minus 21 uppers in that area!!!!

    Just a small cluster brings that old front in from the north mid way through next week, keeping the coldest uppers east - don't panic ... don't panic ...

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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
    6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    Servers crashing under weight of traffic. Anyone would think there was an impending major weather event.

    456  going  up!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Coney Hall Village 260ft asl, North West Kent
  • Location: Coney Hall Village 260ft asl, North West Kent
    3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

    12z ICON snow predictions

    output_BXRBTr.gif

    Thames streamer ? ??

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks

    Anyone please got ecm snow charts. I just cant believe the output. Please someone pinch me!! 

     

    I wonder if steve murr is ok after server crash. Hope hes okay!:rofl:

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    Posted
  • Location: SUNDERLAND TYNE & WEAR
  • Weather Preferences: not fussed
  • Location: SUNDERLAND TYNE & WEAR

    yes off topic apologies - I'm a complete novice weather wise in regards to charts etc, but the last few days have been compelling reading! I have learned quite a bit so thank you to all the posters and informative post  - when the site went offline :wallbash: ... just glad your back on - thanks!!! feel free to delete if not appropriate 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire/Herts border 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, crisp, calm and sunny
  • Location: Bedfordshire/Herts border 40m asl
    11 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    Just had to talk to the wife for an entire hour!! Please don’t let that happen again :acute:

    ECM mean looked very good, here’s the graph, op on the cold side from D7 -10

    A8A8FBE8-639B-4165-8C0A-22B829514003.thumb.png.9a0b498df37b16debdaff3979129375d.png

    Anyone got the UKMO D7?

     

    ‘It’s crashed!’ I squeaked. ‘What am I going to do all evening now?’  I cried.

    ‘It had just better get fixed before the 18Z comes out, that’s all I can say’ I threatened with blood pressure rising.

    Response:  “Does that mean I’ll actually be allowed to speak to you this evening? *cheeky sod* 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    Have to do a whip around soon so we can put 50p back in the server. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex

    The JMA is picturesque, HP to the West, HP to the East and a perfect funnel in between allowing a massive cold source to just....

    ...perfectly flow through...

    JN192-21.GIF?22-12

    Almost a dream.

    Edit: Or is it a nightmare of a Northerly...

     

    Edited by Stuie W
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    I had the misfortune of going on TWO, anywho fantastic NWP I’ll be incredibly surprised if there is not a Thames Streamer possibly more than one. Toasty SSTs in the Thames Estuary that caught my eye. 

    82A38DDC-2C29-4AA6-9090-59022DA9843B.thumb.png.a0b67a880b6a1d5f3274137519369135.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Plymouth, 7m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold & snow, hot & thundery!
  • Location: Plymouth, 7m asl.
    2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

    same as 87 spread over 4 days - slightly warmer by day !

    nice @tall paul

    Thanks Steve and everyone else - it's my job and sometimes it can be a thankless task, but reassuringly all local authorities will have there own kind of contingency plans given warnings of severe cold.

    On a separate note thank you to you and many other posters on here who help me chillax most evenings with your continued and excellant posts ?

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

    Thank you!

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