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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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22 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

HP further north on ARPEGE 12z compared to 0z run. Still not there but a welcomed northward correction.

image.png

Yes, ARPEGE is being really stubborn with the placement of that HP but it is very slowly getting dragged North.

I looked through the GEFS and can only find one member that looks like it out of 20, so hopefully it will soon ditch this and keep moving Northward. I rate the ARPEGE and often follow it in the summer; it's precipitation charts are usually the most accurate at short range. Not sure what it is like at these mid ranges though; it's very different to UKMO and ECM at Day 5 but surely the latter two will have a better handle on it?

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45 minutes ago, Purga said:

UKMO at 144hrs is **#!$xing well RIDICULOUS !

image.thumb.png.6b27e42e809e98a6c1e3eda16ddb6d9a.pngimage.thumb.png.889ec760ff667bb6b7c328e24234c703.pngimage.thumb.png.2cf969dd4282e1d7ba5190579f40a3a7.png

:cold::cold::bomb::blink2::clap:!!!

On my gravestone will read:

Here Lies Jonny Gill,

Nobody knows a lot about him,other than he witnessed THAT ukmo 144 chart.

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Totally amazing model output. This is going to be a very memorable event. It also looks quite possible now that next week is just the start and that we get further reloads of brutal cold after that as well.  Really think the met office need to be warning the public more strongly than at present, as this is dangerous weather which is now almost certainly on its way !  This is once when the tabloids headlines will more than verify !

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4 minutes ago, Paul said:

We have them on the viewers (GFS and Netwx Models) in NW Extra if you still have a sub :) 

Looking a tad chilly on them

mondayeve-wc.png

If this had happened a couple of weeks earlier they might have been the actual max temps.

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Just now, Long haul to mild said:

Yes, ARPEGE is being really stubborn with the placement of that HP but it is very slowly getting dragged North.

I looked through the GEFS and can only find one member that looks like it out of 20, so hopefully it will soon ditch this and keep moving Northward. I rate the ARPEGE and often follow it in the summer; it's precipitation charts are usually the most accurate at short range. Not sure what it is like at these mid ranges though; it's very different to UKMO and ECM at Day 5 but surely the latter two will have a better handle on it?

Maybe a couple of French coldies have compromised some of the data - it's a perfect run for most of France!

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I admit, when I saw the chart for Monday I was worried the high would be too far south and the coldest air south of the UK but it went on to be another stellar run.

Models all seem to disagree with how exactly things go next week but the outcome is the same in every case - Severe cold and shed loads of snow.

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5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

And T240 it keeps coming 😜

IMG_1728.PNG

Now I'm actually a bit scared. I think the country can just about recover from 4/5 days of this. But the ECM op gives just the hint that this may go on 2 or 3 weeks, because it gets the Greenland High in the right spot, and once it gets there it might be hard to shift. If uppers stay below minus 10 for two weeks, there will be big consequences across the country. Just how long will the schools be happy to stay shut for when there's 3 inches of snow falling every day on the east coast?

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6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

192 

Reload from the north with an even bigger cold pool lol 

you couldnt make it up !!

60D5809A-8394-47AB-892E-4D9A797E9006.thumb.png.9105dcf6b1f34b88def04c68f080b4c6.png

I think the models are getting close now, T-216 similar to where I think we heading

ECH1-216.GIF?22-0

ECH0-216.GIF?22-0

I would guess future runs will start to show that low  above Italy to a bit further east phasing with what is left of the vortex and the shortwave over the Norwegian coast, Heights around Greenland being a bit higher expanding SE towards Iceland and that low in the Atlantic being further south east and flatter.

Just guesses looking at trends of where models are progressively taking the vortex further SE into North Russia rather than Siberia and the low pressures further south in Atlantic. Also a run like that would perfectly tie in with MET update.

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This spell is shaping up as being notable for its severity and longevity. If it does deliver on both, it will be interesting that we will have had 3 such spells in the past 8 years, following a 19 year baron period.

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4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

It doesn't quite happen on this run as most of the precipitation stays in France, but this is a theme going forward in the day 8-10 range.

Yeah I quoted a bit later it may not get too far but could still be good for the south :good:

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1 minute ago, mulzy said:

It doesn't quite happen on this run as most of the precipitation stays in France, but this is a theme going forward in the day 8-10 range.

the model is developing more convective precip as it gets closer with the same pattern. presumably that flow over the north sea with those uppers later next week would have to cause streamers even without the frontal incursion. 

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Might remind me of the cold weather we used to get once more just like Dec 2010 did.  It gets mild in the ECM at T240 just -8 uppers :)GFS is a nice snow fest as low pressures push in. UKMo nice as well.

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I feel sorry for any coldie stuck in a boat in that little bubble of -6 uppers off NE scotland at T+192 hours, they will wonder what all the fuss is about!!:D...seriously though, yet another amazingly cold and snowy run from the Ecm 12z apart from the far north.:cold-emoji::D

192_thickuk.png

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Bar. It'll be cold enough to freeze the balls off an imaginary squirrel!:cold:

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These charts are stunning to look at and if they downgrade a touch,many of us will be overjoyed but if,what if this does turn out to be a massive history making few weeks............let that sink in.

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Now that’s a sign the charts are epic 😁thank god you’re back online ...ramp on folks 

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And we're back on line . Quick who's got the ecm means ? 😁

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Hello?

Echo, echo, echo....

Are we back?

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Just had to talk to the wife for an entire hour!! Please don’t let that happen again :acute:

ECM mean looked very good, here’s the graph, op on the cold side from D7 -10

A8A8FBE8-639B-4165-8C0A-22B829514003.thumb.png.9a0b498df37b16debdaff3979129375d.png

Anyone got the UKMO D7?

 

Edited by karlos1983

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Testing testing 1....2...3 

anyway ! The ecm op and mean are incredible 

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Netweather.tv needs a bigger  server like the output it's  frozen :cold:

Edited by snowice

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