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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


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Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    216 Another record perhaps - While the reload 'loads "" ' then -20c at the surface ( shawbrook springs to mind )

    5956483F-E313-4365-9A21-4F20957FD956.thumb.png.d445d30c47ba04406a40d93ae42290ae.png

     

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    Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

    Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

    Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    The feature running across the south remains a bit high risk as the uppers across the channel demonstrate. We should be ok but folk in southern counties wouldn’t want it deepening or been modelled much further north

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    Posted
  • Location: Stunning Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Stunning Shropshire
    1 minute ago, Rickoza said:

    Looks like reload to me after the worst of this one passes through.  Going to be a busy time at the football with all the up-and-coming postponements I'm sure.

    ...........yeah, might have to go into next season at this rate!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Yep..the feature dumps its load..!!!

    The helps converts another easterly in flow....

     

    ECM1-216.gif

    ECM0-216.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

    Wow just wow gfs ukmo ecm absolutely epic. If these come anywhere close we will be digging ourselves out this time next week. :cold:

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
    Just now, chionomaniac said:

    WOW Just another Amazing run from the ECM this time. Deep cold, Bitter winds. Multiple snow chances. Iberian low. It has it all!

    My salt must have tripled in price!

    Who the hell wants frozen salt?

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    Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

    An astonishingly cold and off the scale 850 hPa temperature anomaly across the majority of Great Britain on Wednesday:

    ECMOPEU12_144_34.thumb.png.eda6389b8926414e052a279aa4dc9cac.png

    Indicating cold upper air temperatures ranging between -15°c and -18°c. Very close to January 1987.

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    Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East

    ***** warning ⚠️ ***** warning ⚠️ *****

    given current model output 

    this app may implode next week 

     

     

    6E9C570B-BEB3-4627-948D-845A3E3DCDFA.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees

    I wonder if this is how January 7th 1987 would have been if the internet and Netweather had been around!

    This is amazing but it's also starting to get a little worrying, especially for the elderly and homeless.

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore
    20 minutes ago, Crashlanding said:

    Chart porn defo on the cards here so the anticipation is killing me!

     

    are there any models on here (i cant find any, maybe looking in the wrong place) for Wind Chill temps? 

    potentially a eventful week on the way!

    We have them on the viewers (GFS and Netwx Models) in NW Extra if you still have a sub :) 

    Looking a tad chilly on them

    mondayeve-wc.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
    9 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

    Is that just for southern and central areas 

    Not at all, look at 850s winds and instability, good for much further north. I think the 12z is less of a snowmaker at that point, however, but it would lock in extended cold, so swings and roundabouts.

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    Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
    4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    WOW Just another Amazing run from the ECM this time. Deep cold, Bitter winds. Multiple snow chances. Iberian low. It has it all!

    My salt must have tripled in price!

    I think your salt has risen higher than the zimbabwian inflation rate ! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
    6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    216 Another record perhaps - While the reload 'loads "" ' then -20c at the surface ( shawbrook springs to mind )

    5956483F-E313-4365-9A21-4F20957FD956.thumb.png.d445d30c47ba04406a40d93ae42290ae.png

     

    Was just thinking that, t192 looks incredibly cold overnight for Scotland.

    ECMOPEU12_192_1.png

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

    This Is all looking quite ridiculous lol, seriously how are we all going to cope? I CANT BLOODY WAIT!!! Bring it on..

    think this is going to be like 91 but I was only 11 so looking forward to this jobby 

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    216 Another record perhaps - While the reload 'loads "" ' then -20c at the surface ( shawbrook springs to mind )

    5956483F-E313-4365-9A21-4F20957FD956.thumb.png.d445d30c47ba04406a40d93ae42290ae.png

     

    lowest I can find is -16.9 in the e Scottish glens @ T162

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, wild or foggy/frosty autumns and cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    I'll admit it, a little bit of wee nearly came out when I saw this...

     

     

    ECMOPEU12_192_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
    9 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

    The feature running across the south remains a bit high risk as the uppers across the channel demonstrate. We should be ok but folk in southern counties wouldn’t want it deepening or been modelled much further north

    That's incorrect. May I very strongly suggest that you read the following post:

    It's very well written and highly informative. In fact, anyone with the slightest bit of interest in cold and snow would do well to read it. :)

    Edited by Buzz
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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    2 hours ago, Fingers said:

    Can anyone post country wide 850’s for the coldest days in 87, 91, 10 and 13? Interested to see where this is predicted to sit!! It looks completely bonkers!

    Did this a while back. 1987 got virtually minus 20 uppers. 1991: minus 16. 2010 can't remember exactly at the moment but I think around minus 12. 2013 briefly hit minus 14.

    The forecast spell best matches 1991, but it will be better because the cold pool is far bigger this time.

    @feb1991blizzard you may have to change your name to march2018blizzard!!

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    State of emergency is not even out of the question on that ECM run. No doubt about it, that run would cause absolute chaos. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
    23 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

    Blizzard pushing up from the South...

    ECH1-168.GIF.thumb.png.3e756218fa875998686b2a6499050012.pngECU0-168.GIF.thumb.png.58f79de20dcbaa34c0e55eb886951b7c.png

    It doesn't quite happen on this run as most of the precipitation stays in France, but this is a theme going forward in the day 8-10 range.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm dry summers
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
    22 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

    HP further north on ARPEGE 12z compared to 0z run. Still not there but a welcomed northward correction.

    image.png

    Yes, ARPEGE is being really stubborn with the placement of that HP but it is very slowly getting dragged North.

    I looked through the GEFS and can only find one member that looks like it out of 20, so hopefully it will soon ditch this and keep moving Northward. I rate the ARPEGE and often follow it in the summer; it's precipitation charts are usually the most accurate at short range. Not sure what it is like at these mid ranges though; it's very different to UKMO and ECM at Day 5 but surely the latter two will have a better handle on it?

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

    Thank you!

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