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Paul

Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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Blizzard pushing up from the South...

ECH1-168.GIF.thumb.png.3e756218fa875998686b2a6499050012.pngECU0-168.GIF.thumb.png.58f79de20dcbaa34c0e55eb886951b7c.png

Edited by Day 10

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168 ECM is epic and the incoming low pressure down south appears to be coming from a better angle 

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2 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Blizzard pushing up from the South...

ECH1-168.GIF.thumb.png.3e756218fa875998686b2a6499050012.png

Hmmm and something coming in from the north.

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5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

same as 87 spread over 4 days - slightly warmer by day !

nice @tall paul

Daytime maxes for the Jan 87 event were probably a one in 200 year event in the context of the 20th century climate, so would go some to beat that. 1990/1 has actually had several similarities already to this winter with a noteable cold spell in early December.

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Interesting how mild it is next week in the far north of scotland on the Ecm 12z, only -8 /-9 uppers (850's):D

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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Hmmm and something coming in from the north.

Yep it may not make it very far, awaiting next frame with interest. Good angle however far it may get. Could be good for the south and southwest though.

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2 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Daytime maxes for the Jan 87 event were probably a one in 200 year event in the context of the 20th century climate, so would go some to beat that. 1990/1 has actually had several similarities already to this winter with a noteable cold spell in early December.

Yep Dec 90 had a big Midlands snowstorm, almost the same date as this winter also.

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Just now, ICE COLD said:

ECM 192 . My face is hurting because I'm smiling so much . :D

IMG_1726.PNG

Or because it's frozen solid :rofl:

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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Interesting how mild it is next week in the far north of scotland on the Ecm 12z, only -8 /-9 uppers (850's):D

I mean that is one impressive mild sector there. -8C in a mild sector. Most cold snaps/spells at this time of year, -8/9C is the peak of the cold, not a mild sector!!

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ECM0-192.GIF?22-0

+192 - uppers mixing a tad, but that's more than fine, because this is what's causing it...

ECM1-192.GIF?22-0

blizzard conditions for many.

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ECM1-144.GIF?22-0   ECM1-168.GIF?22-0

ECM0-144.GIF?22-0   ECM0-168.GIF?22-0

I suspect a wave will move through England Wednesday night along with the coldest 850s embedded in that very deep cold pool. I wonder whether anyone with precipitation charts from the ECM could perhaps confirm that but I suspect there would be some very heavy snow moving through at that point. The easterly here is vavious and then after this we could see fronts slowly moving north but how far they get looks uncertain here as the associated low is slowly trundling east on this run.

I think this will remain fridgid out to day 10. The JMA is also beyond epic tonight.

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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Blizzard next Friday? Oh go on then ECM you little tease you.

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2 minutes ago, weatherguy said:

At 168 the perfect retrogression has occured:

ECH1-168.GIF?22-0

Siberian cold pool about to be resupplied....oh my.

I think we are going to hit the jackpot looking at ECM/UKMO tonight, as this  t-168 chart ticks down toward 1st March, I am expecting future runs to show that low coming up from the south west to be further East as well as the vortex dropping in from above further east. By 3rd march we be under north easterly with Greenland/Iceland high and eastern European trough with massive reload of cold uppers with us staying locked in throughout. its been trending that way for 2 days now

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2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Give me strength...

The snow potential is alarming!!!!!

ECM1-192.gif

Is that just for southern and central areas 

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Just now, Thunder Snow said:

Is that just for southern and central areas 

On this run...yes but at that time frame its a vunerable quote...

Although this feature is ever more present now...through data/output!!!

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The extensive low pressure not getting that far north is indicative of how dense the very cold air is. T+192 London and Home Counties buried in a screaming ENE’ly very very low heights just imagine...

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ECM 216 still a bit of a chill :cold-emoji:

IMG_1727.PNG

Not chilly bloody freezing 😁

Edited by ICE COLD

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2 hours ago, North Norfolk coast said:

That is very insane, and quite worrying if you have no choice but to be out and about that day...

I think it’s going to be more than a day 😮more like a week 🤪

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