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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

    You know that excellent post/article John Holmes has produced regarding all the parameters needed for snow. 

    Forget it.

    It’s going to be snowing on the beaches. 

    ‘so long as thas got something’s moist over thas head is gona be white’

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    Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

    Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

    Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Ecm @96..

    And the back feed-cold looks well alingned ..as the flow is: 

    I think by now we can guess where we are heading....yet another peach in the making!!!

    ECM0-96.gif

    ECM1-96.gif

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire/Herts border 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, crisp, calm and sunny
  • Location: Bedfordshire/Herts border 40m asl

    Gosh these outputs have given me pause for thought. Anyone else struck at how small, vulnerable and defenceless Britain and Ireland look with these huge Siberian Snow Devils advancing upon us?  (I’m not ashamed to admit I’m beginning to feel some trepidation and unease if any of these deliver all those kinky snow lines).

    Oh and if the models do deliver such awesome/phenomenal/Just Wow/:help: (take your pick/delete as applicable) snowfest chaos and there are the inevitable power cuts, no-one will be able to come in here and obsess about how quickly the GFS brings in the mild.  We’ll have to actually go outside in it. Hmm, have you thought about that ? ?

     

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    Edited by Soaring Hawk
    Spilling mistake
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Truly Epic GEFS 12z mean next week..the BEAST is very hungry and wants to devour the uk!!:D:cold-emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees

    With this cold spell now looking increasingly likely to verify, if the UKMO have got this modelled correctly where do we think this will sit in the pantheon of easterlys? On a par with '91? '87? Dare I suggest '47?  :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Here comes another special ECM run...120hrs is just amazing and the pulse of upper cold air is coming our way, looks likeits shifted northwards a little over the past 3 runs which is no bad thing for the north.

    Also 120hrs has that nice feature drifting westwards across N.England with a decent easterly flow.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    3 minutes ago, Anti-Mild said:

    With this cold spell now looking increasingly likely to verify, if the UKMO have got this modelled correctly where do we think this will sit in the pantheon of easterlys? On a par with '91? '87? Dare I suggest '47?  :D

    same as 87 spread over 4 days - slightly warmer by day !

    nice @tall paul

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield - 228m/748ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Sheffield - 228m/748ft ASL

    Oh sweet jesus.  +144 is a peach.

    ECM1-144.GIF?22-0ECM0-144.GIF?22-0

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex

    Corcking ECM, no North correction, looks head on!

    ECM0-144.GIF

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire/Herts border 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, crisp, calm and sunny
  • Location: Bedfordshire/Herts border 40m asl
    1 hour ago, starstream said:

    Do a good deed, if you can afford it and you think an elderly person is struggling , or even if they're not..... pop a tenner in an envelope and a note with an anonymous good wishes, keep warm note.

     

    And pop in to make sure they are warm enough and have enough food. Meals on Wheels, if they can deliver are often late in adverse weather conditions. Older adults are frightened to go out in icy conditions in case they fall and break something so often stay indoors alone. Isolation and loneliness is a health hazard as much as physical problems. 

    Sorry mods, I probably shouldn’t have put this here. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    144hrs on this ECM is almost back to where it was forecasting 48hrs ago. So we've had several days of runs where the models forecasted either too far north or south, and in truth they are coming to an agreement bang in the middle.

    Hope everyone is ready for the coldest spell since Dec 10...

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

    Finally I know how the Greeks feel most winters!

    ECM and UKMO - spot the difference!

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    Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
    5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    same as 87 spread over 4 days - slightly warmer by day !

    nice @tall paul

    Sounds perfect to me 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bamford, Rochdale
  • Weather Preferences: Summer - Storms Winter - Blizzards
  • Location: Bamford, Rochdale

    Chart porn defo on the cards here so the anticipation is killing me!

     

    are there any models on here (i cant find any, maybe looking in the wrong place) for Wind Chill temps? 

    potentially a eventful week on the way!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield - 228m/748ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Sheffield - 228m/748ft ASL

    At 168 the perfect retrogression has occured:

    ECH1-168.GIF?22-0

    Siberian cold pool about to be resupplied....oh my.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

    Blizzard pushing up from the South...

    ECH1-168.GIF.thumb.png.3e756218fa875998686b2a6499050012.pngECU0-168.GIF.thumb.png.58f79de20dcbaa34c0e55eb886951b7c.png

    Edited by Day 10
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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

    Thank you!

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