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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


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Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

    Best 144 chart ever in the history of Netweather?....bloody close if not :cold-emoji:

    UN144-21.gif

    UW144-7.gif

    Edited by Southender
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    Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

    Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

    Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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    Posted
  • Location: Dundee - 140m ASL
  • Location: Dundee - 140m ASL
    14 minutes ago, Fingers said:

    Can anyone post country wide 850’s for the coldest days in 87, 91, 10 and 13? Interested to see where this is predicted to sit!! It looks completely bonkers!

    Post World War 2, this is the coldest chart in the archives for our shores from an easterly. 1st February 1956.

     

    NOAA_1_1956020118_2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

    gfseu-2-288.thumb.png.ad9a492d633067cf5d5d859ea91a2a25.png

    Waits patiently for someone to mention the word breakdown....

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    Posted
  • Location: Immingham, NE Lincolnshire
  • Location: Immingham, NE Lincolnshire

    Amazing charts this afternoon, only yesterday I was concerned about any more southward corrections and I thought we weren't going to see anything close to 87/91, if these predictions can just hold or be slightly watered down from here the UK is in for a shock.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    I seriously doubt that I've seen better charts than these, in all the years I've been using NW! :yahoo:

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    Posted
  • Location: Ipswich
  • Location: Ipswich
    1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

    12z ICON snow predictions

    output_BXRBTr.gif

    Looks like im going to wake up to several inches for once here in sunny east suffolk. 10miles from sea btw. I think the next two days are crucial to get a real idea of snow potential. So happy that the models are so consistent which is a rare given our last few winters

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
    14 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

    UKMOOOOOOO…

    So drink it in

    Breathe it

    As I swear you'll never see anything like this ever again

     

    Until tomorrow morning...

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    Just now, mulzy said:

    Until tomorrow morning...

    When it upgrades further. lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Gravesend (by the thames) and work Borough Green deliveries on job around the South east
  • Weather Preferences: Snow November to March. Heat and sun late April to early October
  • Location: Gravesend (by the thames) and work Borough Green deliveries on job around the South east
    41 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    I know but it’s fairly common sense.. the Estuary is above average. Vigorous convection.

    A9E89920-B476-4F07-80FF-E1801FD77667.thumb.png.77a1ffcbf93d67d54d4983ce045453b2.png

    I like the ad!funny enough I'm going to Mauritius on good Fri think I'll need it after the Thames streamers!?

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    How are some going to sleep!

    The excitement is really growing, I’m extremely happy for all you long suffering coldies in the UK. :)

    Some of the 850s suggested I’m sure would be almost unprecedented in March.

     

     

    We're not! :rofl:

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    Posted
  • Location: St Asaph, Denbighshire
  • Location: St Asaph, Denbighshire
    36 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    A look at the max / min temps from the Gfs 12z next week...Brrrrrrrrrrrilliant:D:cold-emoji:

    12_123_uk2mtmp.png

    12_138_uk2mtmpmin.png

    12_147_uk2mtmp.png

    12_162_uk2mtmpmin.png

    12_171_uk2mtmp.png

    Except if you are a plant... sap production has already started so they get even more vulnerable. I love extreme weather though. It looks like this Beast is coming. ?

     

    36 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    If some of these outrageous charts come off, there'll be no daffs left to bloom due to frostbite!

    Daffs will be absolutely fine, they are incredibly tough. Tree buds are much more vulnerable as sap production has started...

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield - 228m/748ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Sheffield - 228m/748ft ASL

    Unreal output.  Utterly bonkers depth of cold heading our way!  March 2013 was a wonderful event but was exceptional as there was no huge cold pool, just perfectly positioned pressure systems to deliver snow...this is looking an altogether different beast.

    Just hoping my move up north to Sheffield hasn't lessened the amount of snow I'll see from this!

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    @Mucka mentioned he saw a new Scandi high forming in GFS 12z FI. I would not be surprised whatsoever. A record SSW followed by a secondary Canadian warming has well and truly smashed the Polar Vortex to pieces and it'll be a long, hard recovery for it. The atmosphere will be primed for height rises in Greenland and Scandinavia well into March. I have a feeling winter will show its hand well into the depths of March... It takes one look at long range temperature anomalies to see this. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Sorry if it’s been pointed out. One of the main differences between meto and gfs at t144 is the handling of the lp as it enters into scandy. 

    Meto has a completely different picture, much deeper, therefore dragging down momentum pushing the Greenland high into a better shape. Gfs barely anything. Also the low pressure over Eastern Europe which gfs has and the meto doesn’t. Rather chalk and cheese like at a relatively near timeframe. Hence much bigger differences t168 and beyond. 

    Meto far better for prolonged cold. 

    7A6571C8-7CB6-42AF-B94D-20598CFEEBB3.gif

    FF7C9C59-D10F-4B12-9D39-877A5D11867E.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    3 minutes ago, Kathryn Atkin said:

    Me too. Following enthusiStically but struggling to understand how the charts operate. Must find a dummy’s guide...

    High pressure clockwise rotation, low pressure anti-clockwise.  So the pressure over Scandinavia is High Pressure and all the isobars going straight over us from weekend onwards(more clearly) are showing wind, weather coming from the East.

     

    BFTP  

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
    17 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    12z ICON snow predictions

    output_BXRBTr.gif

    Central Scotland could do well from this setup, Forth-Clyde streamers in abundance :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Hopefully this won't verify, the other 12z output is exceptional, hope the Ecm 12z is too!:)

    arpegeeur-0-114.png

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    Another important note- IGNORE THE BREAKDOWNS IN FI. Literally days ago the models were showing us that the North might miss out on snowfall due to the high being too far south. Today, the ECM modelled Newcastle to recieve 20 inches. The models do not have the next few days nailed on, forget the next few weeks.

    Moreover, cold air and Scandi highs are very difficult to shift and the GFS is being overly progressive. If we do get a clean retrogression to Greenland, we're in this for the long haul. 

    Let's say we do have a breakdown. As I alluded to earlier, I've no doubt more HLB will develop as we head into March. The atmosphere is just primed for it at the moment. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    GFS ensembles has us sub -10 air for a good 96 hours

    graphe3_1000_261_105___.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Been out all day so only just catching up and it appears the 'tail back' of heights across Scandinavia has gained more support today. Glad to see LP no longer diving down so fast and far west to slice that apart by Tue-Wed as was the behaviour of a concerning number of runs yesterday.

    GFS making less of that tail than most, which combined with it's typical poleward LP track bias makes me even more skeptical than usual of how it manages to sweep in air with 2 m temps as high as +7*C for the far south during the night of 2nd-3rd. At the very least I'd expect to see the milder air mixed out strongly as per the ECM 00z - but even that general idea of a low drifting N seems a bit off when the jet stream is still tracking on east through the Mediterranean. Typically in that scenario we the trough unable to form a single clean circulation, as the deep cold keeps interfering with anything more than about 100 miles in diameter - so forcing the trough to 'make do' with multiple smaller circulations which don't push north so effectively and tend to 'tuck in' colder air into their relatively small, right circulations, with exciting/troublesome results if they've made it over land.

    Admittedly these 'rules' are not absolute so we can't rule out a broader circulation overcoming the odds, but while it's at more than 4 day's range, model runs performing such actions don't concern me too much. Hopefully we won't have to deal with any such solutions inside the 4 day range as I can just imagine the pandemonium as the snow/rain boundary shifts with each new run!

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

    Thank you!

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