Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, Sawel said:

2010 will be a tough act to beat for a lot of people. Firstly (IMBY) we had 7-8 inches from a front coming in from the North Sea on the Sunday, then another 4 days after this with heavy convective snow which dumped another 8-9 inches. However, it's definitely looking like a very significant spell for many!

No forgetting fading light and temperatures.  But in terms of snowfall, it might beat 2nd Feb 2009 for dumping snow?  Either way as people have said, this is going to be a huge event.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well if any lows do manage to get into UK there will be a lot of snow before any breakdown and if any lows get to the E of the UK or disrupt there won't be a breakdown

gfs-2-204.png?12gfs-2-210.png?12gfs-0-210.png?12

Edited by Mucka

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I keep seeing an uptick in precip intensity running down the north sea and then into UK ( tues?) I wonder if we might be treated to that rare of rares?

Could the intense cold form a Polar low in the N. North Sea and send it south and on into M62 corridor?

If we keep seeing this 'pulse' of intense precipitation I'll be watching the Sat images on Monday night/tues morning!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yep and GFS finishes the UK off in style with a foot of snow.

UK closed.

Edited by Southender

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Meanwhile, from our Canadian friends, two charts for your perusal!

GEMOPEU12_144_1.png

GEMOPEU12_168_1.png

Edit:  the GEM is an absolute stonker!

If I had to choose between that and the UKMO, it would have to be the GEM..

The high doesn't get sucked West to form a West based NAO and leaves us locked in the cold air.

Looking at it again.. The UKMO looks like it might end up like the GEM

Edited by D.V.R

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Stozzy said:

Below freezing across most of the land and at coastal areas . Quite incredible .

Indeed and that's not even adding the severe wind-chill which would make it feel four or five times colder still!!..this is soooo exciting isn't it?...stunning 12z runs so far:D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can anyone post country wide 850’s for the coldest days in 87, 91, 10 and 13? Interested to see where this is predicted to sit!! It looks completely bonkers!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 'Lord Nelson! Lord Beaverbrook! Sir Winston Churchill! Sir Anthony Eden! Clement Attlee! Henry Cooper! Lady Diana! Maggie Thatcher - can you hear me, your country took one hell of a dumping 

really showing my age 

IMG_1252.PNG

IMG_1253.PNG

Edited by weirpig

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Will be very interesting to see how the models evolve as we get closer to next Monday. The charts in recent days have shown perfection for cold and some for snow in addition. Surely there will be some sort of watering down?

Cold is nailed on, now just a case of how cold.

Snow - bound to be plenty about, but frontal rather just showers would be ideal. GFS has shown to deliver the former - have the others?

Already had 12 inches here in Hereford back on Dec 9th which was incredible. Unlikely to see that amount this time around but any that falls will not disappear, even it melts in the sun and refreezes!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gem is slower in again due to the way it handles the Icelandic shortwave 

being slower in seems to mean it gets even lower uppers closer to the uk - anyway, it is consistent with its evolution and for the time being its another option on the table

looking ahead an hour and a half - we are yet to manage three consecutive wow ecm ops. Over the past few days it’s been 2 wowzers followed by a meh. Let’s see if we can break that run !

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ARPEGE sending -16 uppers towards western France -12's up to about Lincolnshire

tempresult_vlr3.gif

Edited by Summer Sun

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I keep seeing an uptick in precip intensity running down the north sea and then into UK ( tues?) I wonder if we might be treated to that rare of rares?

Could the intense cold form a Polar low in the N. North Sea and send it south and on into M62 corridor?

If we keep seeing this 'pulse' of intense precipitation I'll be watching the Sat images on Monday night/tues morning!

That’s the shortwave first picked up on the ecm mon - it’s been consistent since then in most runs of most models heading sw across the country - entry point roughly middlesborough and exit wales (somewhere )

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And the GFS wins in the end (Monday 5th March)....bless it...never gives up :rofl:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I no most will get some snow but southern England looks like it’s going to get buried...:cold::cold::cold:

623DC2D9-3990-46ED-B305-216B0C922C41.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Fingers said:

Can anyone post country wide 850’s for the coldest days in 87, 91, 10 and 13? Interested to see where this is predicted to sit!! It looks completely bonkers!

Couple of examples from 1987 and 1991. 1987 just shades it but certainly looks at least on a par with Feb 1991!

CFSR_1_1987011206_2.png

CFSR_1_1991020706_2.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Exciting for some but travel chaos for many and not great for the elderly with rising heating costs 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, BlastFromThePastbuzz said:

I haven't even seen a daff yet this year lol

Nice name.....almost 😜.

I just opened up the models (a n other model site) and started with UKMO and thought I’d try something different.  So I clicked on t850 temps to see how I would read it.  When I got to t96, then t120 and t144 I thought.......my god that is the KING of all Easterlies surely?  Went to pressure charts and Yep!  King of all Easterlies.....that is absolute perfection......and the cold is DANGEROUS levels factoring in windchill. 

I am now a casual chauffer for an ‘old folk’ holiday firm....next week have a full week booked in......I think not now.

I haven’t looked at other models yet.....can’ Stop looking at the UKMO

 

BFTP

 

 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Indeed and that's not even adding the severe wind-chill which would make it feel four or five times colder still!!..this is soooo exciting isn't it?...stunning 12z runs so far:D

And don't forget in the heavy snow showers there will be evaporative cooling going on, probably knock the temps down another couple of degrees, plus if you have already got snow cover then it will have its own low level of cold. Really day after tomorrow stuff.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS is currently showing 3 days of constant snowfall for wales at T195 onwards on latest run

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, shane303 said:

Exciting for some but travel chaos for many and not great for the elderly with rising heating costs 

Yeah, ok, fair enough we get that... but rising heating costs are down to rip off energy companies. That ain't the weather's fault

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ARPEGE sending -16 uppers towards western France -12's up to about Lincolnshire

tempresult_vlr3.gif

And to think, that's the worst 12z output so far!!:shok::D..the rest are amazing!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...