Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

Unbeleivable!!!

Gfs...

Trumps its sister suite 12z/6z..

Quite simply stunning!!!

gfs-0-150.png

gfs-1-156.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Gfs getting better now finding more features that the other models have. (Icelandic shortwave ). We may have found a point where it is likely to be more reliable on the upcoming pattern 

That short wave has made it all the way round the high by 162

gfs-0-162.png?12

heading south?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

GFS T162 -16 850s widespread in the south ?

IMG_1723.PNG

Fantastic way to start the new season!  :yahoo:

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

GFS T162 -16 850s widespread in the south ?

IMG_1723.PNG

In a scenario such as this and the exposed English Channel, if you could be anywhere outside would you recommend venturing to the east coast of the Isle of Wight and/or the Channel Islands?

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1987, 1991

Well the charts this afternoon look on par with the charts of those 2 years IMO- later in year obviously 

There must be a high degree of confidence in something exceptional next week with a direct hit from the Beast From the East !

I suppose the strongest SSW recorded for time of year would lead to historic cold somewhere 

 

Edited by kev238
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

More to it than just the flow and the instability Daniel but we are getting closer to having five numbers and the bonus ball ....... won’t see the last number drawn until early next week !

I know but it’s fairly common sense.. the Estuary is above average. Vigorous convection.

A9E89920-B476-4F07-80FF-E1801FD77667.thumb.png.77a1ffcbf93d67d54d4983ce045453b2.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

Surely if all these crazy charts verify it will make 2010 look like a damp squib?

2010 will be a tough act to beat for a lot of people. Firstly (IMBY) we had 7-8 inches from a front coming in from the North Sea on the Sunday, then another 4 days after this with heavy convective snow which dumped another 8-9 inches. However, it's definitely looking like a very significant spell for many!

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Snowbound said:

In a scenario such as this and the exposed English Channel, if you could be anywhere outside would you recommend venturing to the east coast of the Isle of Wight and/or the Channel Islands?

If some of the more dramatic daytime minima forecast actually happen, you could probably get there on foot, if you're any good on ice-skates... 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Chart of the week...

Absolute ripper!

Lovely straight, clean flow... 

Chart of my lifetime. The UKMO from 96 to 144 is simply Incredible. If anyone is wondering why the sudden upgrade, my boiler broke this morning so you can thank me for that.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

That short wave has made it all the way round the high by 162

gfs-0-162.png?12

heading south?

That is an incredible Chart. An easterly non stop from St. Petersburg to Newfoundland. That will make for some interesting transatlantic crossings as flights usually fly west an hour quicker than the other direction.  Is the High Retrogressing west at T162 . Seems to be sat over southern greenland now as opposed to Northern Iceland which would be the optimal position

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, karyo said:

Fantastic way to start the new season!  :yahoo:

Unless solar cycles 25, 26 and 27 stick us in some kind of ice age..... I may never see charts like this again on the south coast! ????

Edited by Fingers
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Meanwhile, from our Canadian friends, two charts for your perusal!

GEMOPEU12_144_1.png

GEMOPEU12_168_1.png

Edit:  the GEM is an absolute stonker!

Edited by mulzy
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A look at the max / min temps from the Gfs 12z next week...Brrrrrrrrrrrilliant:D:cold-emoji:

12_123_uk2mtmp.png

12_138_uk2mtmpmin.png

12_147_uk2mtmp.png

12_162_uk2mtmpmin.png

12_171_uk2mtmp.png

  • Like 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

A look at the max / min temps from the Gfs 12z next week...Brrrrrrrrrrrilliant:D:cold-emoji:

12_123_uk2mtmp.png

12_138_uk2mtmpmin.png

12_147_uk2mtmp.png

12_162_uk2mtmpmin.png

12_171_uk2mtmp.png

Below freezing across most of the land and at coastal areas . Quite incredible .

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS has another go at a "warm up"  next weekend and fails miserably.

No doubt low res it will go on to show daffs in bloom.

Channel low anyone?

Edited by Southender
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good day for the daffodils,coldest march 1st on record -3c max.

Rtavn1681.gif

Edited by Snowyowl9

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Norrance said:

The longer Sea track will see us alright with these temperatures! At least those to the East of the mountains.

Absolutely, very similar to 2010 and that was record snowfall for Edinburgh, we had 18 inches ! With the steep lapse rates would be intense shower activity :-)

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's one for you all how about a trend 

2010 Once in a hundred(100) years

2013 March once in 50 years

2018 Feb /March  ?????? once in 8 :)

These events are becoming more common

Edited by winterof79
  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hmm is that another Scandi high building in GFS FI?

gfsnh-0-198.png?12

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Southender said:

GFS has another go at a "warm up"  next weekend and fails miserably.

No doubt high res it will go on to show daffs in bloom.

Channel low anyone?

If some of these outrageous charts come off, there'll be no daffs left to bloom due to frostbite!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Models are upgrading this  cold weather as it enters the reliable time frame,normally it’s the other way around 

yeah this is where we want it to stop now thou.

the models over last couple of days progressively have been  dropping parts of the vortex further East run to run. now into Russia than Scandie., remember a couple of days the ECm dropping a low between the block to our north now this happening much further East

this  is ideal as putting a bit of  pressure on the  middle of the block around T-150 squeezing everything to increase flow and keeping the low pressure in Atlantic South. I expect nearer the time we will that low disrupt more anyway.

However if the models take the Vortex any further Eastward than the angle at the moment we won't get that squeeze at T-150.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Staring in utter disbelief at the ukmo  144 chart.

Lump in throat,tears welling.

Better feeling than Having my kids,I won't lie.

If I have a drink tonight,I will at some point burst into tears?

Overwhelmed or what,sh*t a brick.

Edited by joggs
  • Like 2
  • Sad 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...