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Paul

Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

GFS 12z T96 

IMG_1717.PNG

That looks superb. Nice widespread uppers. This run could be stonking

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10 minutes ago, North Norfolk coast said:

Yes kinks in the isobars showing a possible trough feature moving through off the North sea.

yes, all day and all of the night.

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Tbf -as regards the AZHP, and its ebb of milder sector/sectors, 

With the overwellming horizontal flow its just going to be barrelled out...

Along with miniscule shortwave-features!!

No-worrys from me on those factors..

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1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

:cold:ukmo at 120

IMG_0363.GIF

wow!!!! it doesn't get much better surely

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Make no bones about the upcoming week.

Once the showery activity starts with the initial push of cold it will just continue to pile snow onto windward facing hills up the Pennine Chain with orographic snowfall becoming prevalent

icon-0-120.png?22-12

icon-0-165.png?22-12

 

Edited by winterof79
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GFS complicating matters with that low west of IcelandIMG_0363.GIF

IMG_0365.PNG

Edited by Weathizard

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Just now, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Ukmo perfect for England and Wales, not so great for Scotland. 

UW120-21 (6).gif

Not sure about that, you can see a kink over Northern Ireland that has crossed Northern England Southern Scotland. Surly a bringer of snow

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GFS T120 very cold uppers waiting in the wings ?

IMG_1719.PNG

Edited by ICE COLD
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2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

:cold:ukmo at 120

IMG_0363.GIF

That's excellent. I'm at risk of labouring a point but we want that Azores Low to scoot through into the Med quickly. Otherwise it might inflate heights over Spain and Portugal

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Just now, karyo said:

The Aprege continues to have the High pressure too dominant and further south than the other models. The 12z is a small improvement to the earlier version though.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegee_cartes.php?&ech=114&mode=0

Only ever rated the Arprege when it is showing 2ft of snow:hi:

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2 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Ukmo perfect for England and Wales, not so great for Scotland. 

UW120-21 (6).gif

You could see the slight difference on the GFS and UKMO 96 hour chart in the angle of the flow so I'm not surprised its a bit further southwards but still very cold though with snow showers more widely from Northern England downwards.

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What a chart that is!! Would that be better for keeping the Azores low further south at t168 and t192 and stop the introduction off the less cold uppers reaching the southwest and prolonging the cold? 

6B5308E7-1FA7-4056-B76E-7190193AFB52.png

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2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Phwaor! UKMO 144 is a humdinger

UW144-7.GIF?22-17UW144-21.GIF?22-17

Superb! The Azores Low disrupts and heads more East dampening down my minor worry about that Low moving NE. That is a stunner

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WOW did the UKMO just do that? The capital would be buried great flow!

6680771F-2AC4-4243-98F6-CC348956F0E8.thumb.gif.ced3415e48244717046c009ac1070c85.gif9853BEBA-3139-49E2-8AE0-057323E1E6BE.thumb.gif.e873b29468e10153dfe548133e77b417.gif

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To my mind, if the charts this afternoon verify then this will be a historic event for the very end of winter! 

You would have to imagine there will be a lot of snow showers and drifting!

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2 minutes ago, Fingers said:

What a chart that is!! Would that be better for keeping the Azores low further south at t168 and t192 and stop the introduction off the less cold uppers reaching the southwest and prolonging the cold? 

6B5308E7-1FA7-4056-B76E-7190193AFB52.png

Yes, it's far better than the already brilliant Icon

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1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

There's your dry Easterly!

gfseu-2-126.thumb.png.2b93d891cd3fdc64ba8582875662822b.png

gfs-2-120.png?12

Northern England (Eastern and Central) look like it could do very well out of a feature that is now showing across most of the models. 

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