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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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Icon takes aim of colder wedge of uppers/850s @the uk..

Very nicely placed-alignment...

As the beast begins to ROAR!!

ICON 6Z...

 

Edit, it just gets better as she rolls..

Some staggering cold euro wide!!!

Over to the gfs 6z...

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icon-1-99.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Messing around with shortwaves mid Atlantic as per gem 

A little worry as i think it’s been very good this winter. Has been showing this for a couple of runs now. Only a minor worry for now though. 

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6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Comparing ARPEGE 12z to 00z the -8 line is only clipping the SE corner on this run

Today 00z

arpegeeur-0-102.thumb.png.68eb85f7615b814314d21ee78ac11a7f.pngarpegeeur-1-102.thumb.png.ec84346d5bdf9bf719bc55bd5a0fd715.png

Last night 12z

arpegeeur-0-114.thumb.png.5491d3baf7712c60bcd439d39e91f438.pngarpegeeur-1-114.thumb.png.aec9b8703d6fdbb51168bddabb888d13.png

 

but the -12 line is much closer....

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16 hours ago, frosty ground said:

19th ECM 12zECM1-216.GIF?00EDM1-216.GIF?00
20th ECM 12zECM1-192.GIF?00EDM1-192.GIF?00
21st ECM 0zECM1-168.GIF?00EDM1-168.GIF?00

22nd ECM 0z ECM1-144.GIF?22-12EDM1-144.GIF?22-12

So the high moved west from the 19th to the 20th, then the high moves back west from the 20th to the 21st......

The upper high actually migrates (north over those three runs, the 21st looks more like the 19th.

there is no trend, so to predict anything from that is well..... a folly. (or a troll)

Added the means too......

Just wondering if Ian would like to actually reply to this post, rather than ignoring it. i've even added todays 0z run.

There was  no trend was there Ian?

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Nowt wrong here...

Another stella run in the offing.

Deep cold penertrating uk bound....

 

Edit gfs 6z @120.

A very open reverse-mobile-flow...

Again: deep cold eyeing uk shores

 

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gfs-1-108.png

gfs-0-120.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Every GFS run the high seems to get saggier and more reluctant to cut off, I know it's fussy I'd just like to see a cleaner evolution.

Its a mess of shortwaves as usual when it comes to getting HLB

Edited by Weathizard
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1 minute ago, SizzlingHeat said:

The low in the Azores is concerning for prolonging the cold. Looks to make inroads towards tail end of the week again....

Too progressive perhaps? Though it has been a recent trend to introduce less cold uppers to the south towards the end of next week. Too far out to really worry about anyway.

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2 minutes ago, supernova said:

Nice perspective from WRF. Tomorrow's run likely to become a popular screensaver...

tempresult_weg2.gif

Yes and in the last few frames you can see a surge of even colder air heading our way with what appears to be little to stop it

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1 minute ago, Comandante said:

Too progressive perhaps? Though it has been a recent trend to introduce less cold uppers to the south towards the end of next week. Too far out to really worry about anyway.

Well it's been sniffing around the ops for some time now. If only it could go straight under the block instead of swinging winds round to SE direction eventually ushering in milder air. Just have to keep watch on this one.

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2 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

The low in the Azores is concerning for prolonging the cold. Looks to make inroads towards tail end of the week again....

If you can guarantee that uppers won’t get above zero and surface flow will remain se then it can get as close as it likes! However, it’s the ultimate ‘high risk = high reward ‘ on this upcoming pattern and if we get it to run up the channel and pull the deep cold back in behind then as long as it doesn’t rejig the neg NAO too far west it’s the best evolution !

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