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Paul

Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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Northerly starting to set in  with colder uppers approaching Britain.  Very good run  

gfsnh-0-300.png

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GFSOPEU12_348_1.png

Ending with a Greenland high after a small "mild sector" pushes through. It would ironically give a lot of snow for a time as it does.

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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

GFS shiting the main pool of cold air to our friends in mainland Europe by the end of next week still cold for the UK but a slight recovery in temps

DWfi50UXUAEX1Fj.thumb.jpg.7a20199ff60a88807acc91b9ab6cc283.jpg

Oo watch your language! It’s not that bad is it? lol 

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UKMO is the pick of the bunch for me this afternoon, strong cold easterly hitting the UK, would just hope the lower heights would nudge a bit further northwards but there is still a bit of time for this to change.

One thing to note about the GEM model is that it over do the upper air temps e.g makes cold pools more stronger and warm pools more stronger than any other model. 

The shortwave dilemma was well explained as to why we should not be too concerned about them but it' a complication I rather not see personally. 

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1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

There really is no pleasing some people, is there?

12z GFS continues to be incredible, UKMO is a solid 10/10 for me, can't wait to see the GFS We're about to see the snowiest period for possibly years.

I'll remember to say the same when peeps in SE whine about a polar maritime flow not giving them snow. :wink:

It is better for everyone if the high is further North, having it trend South is not better for anyone tbh.

People are always going to want snow to come with the cold and this sort of trend would reduce the chances for a lot of people, that's all that is being said really.

Onwards and upwards

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18 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

I’m shocked at some knee jerk comments looking very snowy 

Yes but not for the Northern half of the UK abbie, the high pressure sinks from 174 - unlike previous output where the high pressure stayed well north to allow the whole of the UK to be under the influence of easterly winds.

 

Edited by Paul

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So it seems the high has inflated too much on the gfs run. Sending everything down towards Spain and France. Not a particularly great for northern areas. Yes cold but dry. Not something we want to see in future runs. Still time for change. 

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Correct me if i am wrong but this is not the ecm is its gfs. If ecm does same do we get concerned. Saying i have slways said is get cold in first. Worry about rest later 

 

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Well  Gfs in a nutshell  Snow opp  and cold weather for nearly 2 weeks.    will it happen like that ??.  NO

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Northern Britain finally gets some snow as winds turn northerly, a very wintry finish for the north on the Gfs 12z.:)

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Come on peeps let’s not forget what we have endured over the last few years.

These charts are slightly different to earlier but who knows what the charts are going to say this evening/ tomorrow and so on. They are still great!!

It’s going to be bitter with snow around for a good week and more likely longer!! 

MNR

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Looks better for the south coast with winds off the English Channel, lake effect for us south coasters!!!

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6 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Yup, a lot of SE England imbyism going on with this thread. We're not allowed to be upset because Kent will be buried. Actually guys, we are.

A slightly odd set of statements given that the GFS doesn't deliver much snow to the south east. The majority hits NE England and Eastern Scotalnd like the previous runs (There will be chances of organised areas of snow that won't be picked up until within the 48 hour range.).

A GFS precipitation chart I know, but the point is kind of made here to be honest.

192-780UK.GIF?20-12

I will now leave and slap myself senseless for the next five minutes for posting that chart..... :rofl:

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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2 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

The lack of comment on the UKMO is rather ironic, it looks excellent yet simply because the GFS has more data available to the public everybody starts showing signs of panic on-setting. UKMO probably the best out of all models. 

GFS and UKMO are both very good up to 144. The "panic" is because of changes on the GFS beyond the range of the UKMO. They cannot be compared at that point.

 

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Well the GFS run isn't as much fun as the 6z run that is for sure. However, it still gets the cold easterly flow in Monday- Wednesday but then it all becomes a bit MEH after that . 

The UKMO is a great run up to 144hrs. The ECM will be interesting later.

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Shortwaves are likely to form because of the depth of cold that’s why you need a strong block to force the cold air westwards.

The GEM has less forcing on the pattern at T144hrs, the UKMO more with a stronger block further to the nw with those core heights .

You can’t get the cold without the block but it is a juggling act to make sure the coldest air hits the UK.

The actual cold pool is a lot bigger than what we often see with easterly set ups.

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Yesterday's runs were showing copious amounts of snow events in the South around 1st/2nd March; what's the bet the big fat HP ends up sitting over UK after a couple of days next week?

 

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Is there any chance at all that the  spike of a smaller second SSW affect the models again for a few days. I just know that it affected models before and could do again as they re adjust, as the second wave of warming is currently happening, and the next few runs, including the 12z may become confused. I know it’s a strat post, but it’s related to the models, of and a big IF they affect them again, just to stop toys being thrown.

638A95E9-BFE5-4D93-92ED-5154E4DE18A2.png

Edited by Justin123

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UW144-21.GIF?20-17

This is fantastic and would see winds go northeasterly by 168

ICON also very good

 

 

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144+ is la la land anyway. Up to then GFS is excellent. Anyone expecting continued repeats of runs such as the 6z aren’t in the real world.

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I do think the main message will be the snow risk will be the further south and east you are however there is still time for variations regarding this and anywhere in eastern areas could see snow.

The size of the high could be an issue but there is alot to sort out before then, can be a double edge sword of a big block like that bit again there will variability with each run and the angle which the cold pool arrives is far from sorted yet.

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