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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


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Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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Posted
  • Location: Dundee - 140m ASL
  • Location: Dundee - 140m ASL
    2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    It so different to EVERY other model at this point. Note the location of the upper high, it is over 500 miles further NE ofjust about every other model. Indeed outside of the GFS, actually good agreement on the location of the upper high.

    MAYBE this is the start of a trend back towards the orginal solution which is kind of what the GFS has, we will have to watch the GFS ensembles. I suspect its rather been on the hard stuff though.

    It's certainly a great run for many no doubt but as you say, clearly on the sauce!

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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

    Sod’s law the clusters are late ...............

    Just rang last orders.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    It won't be long now until the short range model output discussion becomes more interesting!!..the stunning / insane output continues with the 18z..all roads lead to very cold and snowy:cold::D

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Do you think this is all too difficult for the gfs ?

    the ec keeps jumping clusters but at least it tends to make sense as it trundles along, as does the gem

     

    Two warmings in succession one of which was unprecedented hardly surprising output and not beyond possibility.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield

    LOL! The 18z just turns into a big revolving snow-making machine next week.

    18_225_mslp500.png?cb=379

    giphy.gif

    giphy.gif

     

     

     

    Edited by Steel City Skies
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    2 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

    LOL! The 18z just turns into a big revolving snow-making machine next week.

    Before it probably disappears up it’s own ............

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    Still snowing next Sunday on the pub run . It's proper peed up tonight ?

    IMG_1709.PNG

    Edited by ICE COLD
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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    I think asking whether the ecm clusters had come out yet is definitely model related. However, the post was removed. Unbelievable! 

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    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
    6 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    Even the face in the systems over the UK looks confused by this run :D

    IMG_0348.PNG

    GFS making a tit out of this?

    Edited by snowice
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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Do you think this is all too difficult for the gfs ?

    the ec keeps jumping clusters but at least it tends to make sense as it trundles along, as does the gem

     

    yep all to difficult

    look at 3 days ago with GFS creates massive wave over southern Scandi - barely there now -

    its a case of yes - a shallow system will problably develop & be around for 12 hours - but not turn into a ferris wheel of revolving snow -

    Anyway onto 00zeds 

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    Just now, blizzard81 said:

    I think asking whether the ecm clusters had come out yet is definitely model related. However, the post was removed. Unbelievable! 

    Looks like all the Icelandic ecm stuff from the 12z suite is missing so perhaps some processing issues up there this evening 

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    The UKMO has the 510 dam line just over the Channel in Belgium at T120hrs on the fax chart! :)

    Also a trough coming into East Anglia , ne England and towards the se.

    Its a wonderful looking chart, and not surprised there is a trough in the flow, its a very cold and pretty unstable flow for sure, snow showers merging into a longer spell of snow just in time for rush hour based on the fax chart.

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  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

    Looks like all the Icelandic ecm stuff from the 12z suite is missing so perhaps some processing issues up there this evening 

    Probably the most eagerly awaited ecm clusters and it goes awol. You couldn't make it up could you?

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

    yep all to difficult

    look at 3 days ago with GFS creates massive wave over southern Scandi - barely there now -

    Anyway onto 00zeds 

    Will be interesting to see where this sits in relation to the ensembles. Its certainly exceptional looking (looks a little like Dec 10) but the upper high is in a totally different place to all the other models and thus this has a large impact on what happens. Its also FAR weaker by 192hrs as well. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Some newbies could be forgiven for thinking the clusters are everything before long. It seems to be the new thing. Are they better than the means?

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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
    1 minute ago, inghams85 said:

    With the level of cold over Scandinavia moving West to East disturbances and lows are more likely than a clean easterly flow in my opinion 

    West to east?

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincs
  • Location: Lincs
    2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    Some newbies could be forgiven for thinking the clusters are everything before long. It seems to be the new thing. Are they better than the means?

    The clusters give context to the mean

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

    Some newbies could be forgiven for thinking the clusters are everything before long. It seems to be the new thing. Are they better than the means?

    I think most 'newbies' would appreciate being informed that the clusters exist. They can only add to the learning process. 

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

    Thank you!

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