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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield - 228m/748ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Sheffield - 228m/748ft ASL

    Messy 18z gfs which may not look appealing to some looking for "perfect synoptics", but the messy nature could provide quite the snowfest for many.  Snow galore if this were to verify.

    gfs-0-186.png?18

     

    @richardc1983 below - it's pointless going into specifics such as that right now.  things can and will still change at this timescale; snow is notoriously difficult to predict at range beyond whether it is cold enough to snow.  All I'll say is UK-wide snow is likely over the next week, going off current output.

    Edited by weatherguy
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    Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

    Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

    Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

    Such an unstable flow, little systems cropping up everywhere 

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    GFS raises the possibility of a fronts moving North out of France. All in FI of course but these are really reliable ways to get snow in the south.

    Edited by SN0WM4N
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    Posted
  • Location: OSLO, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storms, Heat, Thunderstorms
  • Location: OSLO, Norway

    GFS definitely struggling again at the moment it seems with inter run variability - to add to this that damn M4 is playing up again.

     

    gfs-16-192_mdx3.png

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    The GFS goes a bit crazy with the shortwaves but put that aside , even with it on LSD it still manages to improve in terms of overall pattern with the low to the sw now splitting eastwards.  

    The block over Greenland is also better placed at day 8.

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    Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

    The GFS has gone off on one here surely, extremely snowey but just looks a bit of a mess a very good mess though it has to be said

    Screenshot_20180221-222947.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cottingham
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Cottingham
    1 minute ago, richardc1983 said:

    There seems to be a lot of model discussion around London and the south can anyone advise on the Yorkshire area, particularly Leeds? Thank you 

    Buy a snow plow :D

    Or hire this man



    If the 18z is to be believed, you have a cold area of low pressure moving around your location so this run would provide a lot of snow

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    As Steve said whilst a stunning run, synoptically its very much out of kilter with every other run sadly with what it is doing with the upper high. With that being said, it IS a move closer to the general consensus compared to the 12z GFS. Still think it is weakening the high too rapidly, classic GFS problem hence why its been slowing the cold down as it weakened the upper high too fast when it first forms on the 24-25th.

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    This 18z is the best run of the day / night..and it's faced some very stiff competition!..coldies are so happy and it's not even started yet!!:D:cold:

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    Posted
  • Location: Dundee - 140m ASL
  • Location: Dundee - 140m ASL

    It's so different from ECM at the 144hrs point. The ECM just about has an easterly flow hitting Scotland whereas the GFS has the Easterly flow hitting as far as 700/800 miles further north! Incredible difference at that timescale.

    Edited by Sawel
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    Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
    6 minutes ago, richardc1983 said:

    There seems to be a lot of model discussion around London and the south can anyone advise on the Yorkshire area, particularly Leeds? Thank you 

    PIT says neither the GFS or ECM have managed to produce a model to beat the Yorkshire weather shield yet.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham

    I can't stress how UNBLEIVABLE SNOWY this would be. Maybe not for those on the south coast and hence less excitement (I don't think this will verify tho) But for the southern Midlands northwards it's a snow machine it's scary how snowy it would actually be 

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    Posted
  • Location: Whitby north yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold , snow . Hot sunny
  • Location: Whitby north yorkshire

    Let's hope the gfs op is a trend . Very very snowy 

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    Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

    Well it just keeps giving the 18z crazy amounts of snow at 216 hrs, all just for fun at this range obviously 

    Screenshot_20180221-223524.png

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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
    10 minutes ago, Jason M said:

    Great pub run....... Anybody who thinks otherwise is off their rocker.

    That said, its also complete nonsense after the initial cold push. The sheer depth of the cold pool is clearly causing GFS some issues here.

     

     

    That pub run should be on that programme "off their rockers".

    Seriously, different runs but the same theme. The cold Is coming and will bring snow for most at some point in the next 10 maybe +days.

    At least we know after the initial cold push(more to follow)and no sinking high.

    Cock on.

    Edited by joggs
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    Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
    6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    The GFS goes a bit crazy with the shortwaves but put that aside , even with it on LSD it still manages to improve in terms of overall pattern with the low to the sw now splitting eastwards.  

    The block over Greenland is also better placed at day 8.

    Then on day 9 it goes on holiday to Canada.. Sorry but after day 5 this run just went crazy.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    1 minute ago, Sawel said:

    It's so different from ECM at the 144hrs point. The ECM just about has an easterly flow hitting Scotland whereas the GFS has the Easterly flow hitting as far as 700/800 miles further north! Incredible difference. 

    It’s two issues, the ECM splits the high with the stronger block to the nw later and doesn’t meander a shortwave around for days over the UK.

    You can look it two ways it makes a drama over everything and still delivers snow and cold.

     

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    3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    This 18z is the best run of the day / night..and it's faced some very stiff competition!..coldies are so happy and it's not even started yet!!:D:cold:

    Very unlikely to verify. HP is much further north compared to ECM, UKMO and ICON. And the high is weakend far to easily. All other models show HP in the north maintaining for far longer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    I think for entertainment value, this run get's a 10 out of 10 from me.  For the likelihood of verifying beyond about 150, I would give it around a 2.  Trust me, this chart at 210 will not be appearing on the 0z (shame, looks an absolute snowfest). 

    gfsnh-0-210.png?18

    FI currently around 96, but I think at least the weekend moving into Monday should be pretty much nailed by tomorrow evening runs

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    The 18z ia bin fodder - The shortwave will not remain stationary like that over NE Britain - 

    Look at the 162 its like its been issued with 3 Upper Highs .3 developing highs about 10 shortwaves - then blindfolded & asked to throw them anywhere.

    Which it has.

    badly.

    Do you think this is all too difficult for the gfs ?

    the ec keeps jumping clusters but at least it tends to make sense as it trundles along, as does the gem

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    3 minutes ago, Sawel said:

    It's so different from ECM at the 144hrs point. The ECM just about has an easterly flow hitting Scotland whereas the GFS has the Easterly flow hitting as far as 700/800 miles further north! Incredible difference at that timescale.

    It so different to EVERY other model at this point. Note the location of the upper high, it is over 500 miles further NE ofjust about every other model. Indeed outside of the GFS, actually good agreement on the location of the upper high.

    MAYBE this is the start of a trend back towards the orginal solution which is kind of what the GFS has, we will have to watch the GFS ensembles. I suspect its rather been on the hard stuff though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dundee - 140m ASL
  • Location: Dundee - 140m ASL
    1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

    It’s two issues, the ECM splits the high with the stronger block to the nw later and doesn’t meander a shortwave around for days over the UK.

    You can look it two ways it makes a drama over everything and still delivers snow and cold.

     

    It's a superb run for these parts, I'm guessing it will be at the extreme end on the ensemble suite.

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

    Thank you!

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