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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


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Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    1 minute ago, Steel City Skies said:

    Looks like a second pulse of very cold uppers waiting in the wings (N Sea) at 150hrs...

    Yup and a low pressure cell forming over Northern England :D

    Cold air will get caught up in it. The only reason why we haven't got -15C uppers yet is because the westward movement is slower. That isn't a bad thing in this case because its heading to us anyway :cold:

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    Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

    Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

    Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14
    1 minute ago, iowpompeylee said:

    I see a little disturbance in the channel there for us southern coastal folk! Will be wonderful not having to check if the dew point is favourable!!! ??

    That's been showing very consistently for a few runs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors

    WOW look at that area of -22c uppers just off the coast of Norway heading for my back garden (I hope).

    156-7UK.GIF?21-18

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

    Snow moving southwards with that small low pressure system over UK at 162/168. Going to drag some very cold uppers down across us again now...

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    Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent

    Deep cold doesnt even make it to West Europe on this run and just stays in Scandinavia. The positive is the Azores low is having a better go at undercutting.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield
    Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

    Yup and a low pressure cell forming over Northern England :D

    Cold air will get caught up in it. The only reason why we haven't got -15C uppers yet is because the westward movement is slower. That isn't a bad thing in this case because its heading to us anyway :cold:

    Yes it's actually stopping the very cold air reaching UK shores. Still, plenty of snow for central/northern England anyway!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    Just now, Snowy L said:

    Deep cold doesnt even make it to West Europe on this run and just stays in Scandinavia. The positive is the Azores low is having a better go at undercutting.

    Yes but.   Who wants deep cold when we have all of these kinks and shortwaves over us ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Location: Cambridge
    Just now, Ice Day said:

    OK, for the 'newbies' as they call themselves, this run is absolutely stonking, not as good as some over the last few days, but better than others.  At 162 we have a countrywide cold event with snow chances pretty high for everyone.  This it in a nutshell.  Stop worrying and enjoy the ride.

    gfsnh-0-162.png?18 gfsnh-1-162.png?18

    Wow. Find me a better February chart for snow this side of 2009. (NB, you can’t). This place is a right joke sometimes. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
    Just now, weirpig said:

    Yes but.   Who wants deep cold when we have all of these kinks and shortwaves over us ? 

    True, t174 is a joke and why 18z has earned its pub run reputation. Wouldnt mind that though :)

    GFSOPEU18_174_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham

    Absolutely insane snow amounts on this run I'd imagine with shortwave forming in situ over the British isles. If it's snow you want how can you not be happy with this?! ?

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    The GFS 18 hrs run takes a little longer to clear shortwave energy to the nw.

    But even with this it’s better than the earlier 12 hrs run as there’s more forcing later on to disrupt more energy east into the Med rather than ne.

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    The 18z ia bin fodder - The shortwave will not remain stationary like that over NE Britain - 

    Look at the 162 its like its been issued with 3 Upper Highs .3 developing highs about 10 shortwaves - then blindfolded & asked to throw them anywhere.

    Which it has.

    badly.

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Posted
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)

    GFS 18z run looks perfection for cold and snow to me.

    I just want the cold to hurry up now.  Not because I am impatient but because every six hours I have such an exhausting read in the model thread!

    Everyone will be off to the regionals come Sunday to ramp / complain *delete as applicable* about their snow chances but in here should be a far more relaxing read.  Phew!  :D

    C6BC6054-43CC-456E-9164-9E2239B6D5EC.png

    Edited by Kentish Snowman
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Location: Cambridge
    Just now, ITSY said:

    Wow. Find me a better February chart for snow this side of 2009. (NB, you can’t). This place is a right joke sometimes. 

    I take it back. 174. Europe’s parting gift to the UK - death by snow. Snexit. 

    C6BC6054-43CC-456E-9164-9E2239B6D5EC.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
    3 minutes ago, Banbury said:

    Stunning 

    gfsnh-0-174.png?18

     

    Look at that Northern blocking. That's a stunning chart! Snow possible anywhere over the UK!

    Edited by Jason H
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    Certainly an interesting feature, but GFS hanging on to it over us too long, but potential snowfest somewhere

    gfs-0-168.png?18

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    174hrs and the pattern is slowly evolving with the upper high shifting westwards, looks like its weakening the high way too rapidly however when compared with just about every other run, and this is a well known GFS flaw.

    What it means is the GFS probably is shifting the cold uppers too far north, the pattern likely to be further SE as the upper high will probably be further SE as well, as poer nearly every other model...

    Massive snow risk country wide on this run and plenty cold.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    GFS 18z be like “you don’t actually expect me to be able to resolve this SSW stuff do ya” :drunk: 

    601D0643-38C8-4D7E-A418-05E808DEC6A8.thumb.png.a8d051167d0e283373fabef6ac6f9ece.png8ABD7FD9-3345-4560-95D2-AA8C076DC5A5.thumb.jpeg.ce81e683668bbfb833f2a0eb98cb3e3d.jpeg

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield
    Just now, Steve Murr said:

    The 18z ia bin fodder - The shortwave will not remain stationary like that over NE Britain - 

    Look at the 162 its like its been issues with 3 Upper High, 3 developing highs about 10 shortwaves - then blindfolded & asked to throw them anywhere.

    Which it has.

    badly.

    Alright own up, who spiked the 18z's pint? :friends:

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

    Messy snowfest for most from mid next week on this run, with some spots (e.g. SE) very snowy before then.

    Bitterly cold with no marginality despite the lack of really deeper uppers. You don't need very low uppers in an easterly to get snow to sea level or for it to be bitter.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

    Great pub run....... Anybody who thinks otherwise is off their rocker.

    That said, its also complete nonsense after the initial cold push. The sheer depth of the cold pool is clearly causing GFS some issues here.

     

     

    Edited by Jason M
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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

    Thank you!

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
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