Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

[Quicksilver1989 6,028]

1 minute ago, Steel City Skies said:

Looks like a second pulse of very cold uppers waiting in the wings (N Sea) at 150hrs...

Yup and a low pressure cell forming over Northern England 

Cold air will get caught up in it. The only reason why we haven't got -15C uppers yet is because the westward movement is slower. That isn't a bad thing in this case because its heading to us anyway 

[The Moving Planet 1,139]

1 minute ago, iowpompeylee said:

I see a little disturbance in the channel there for us southern coastal folk! Will be wonderful not having to check if the dew point is favourable!!! ??

That's been showing very consistently for a few runs.

[vizzy2004 1,707]

WOW look at that area of -22c uppers just off the coast of Norway heading for my back garden (I hope).

[bradymk 2,154]

Snow moving southwards with that small low pressure system over UK at 162/168. Going to drag some very cold uppers down across us again now...

[Snowy L 6,936]

Deep cold doesnt even make it to West Europe on this run and just stays in Scandinavia. The positive is the Azores low is having a better go at undercutting.

[Ice Day 7,151]

OK, for the 'newbies' as they call themselves, this run is absolutely stonking, not as good as some over the last few days, but better than others.  At 162 we have a countrywide cold event with snow chances pretty high for everyone.  This it in a nutshell.  Stop worrying and enjoy the ride.

 

[Steel City Skies 2,677]

Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yup and a low pressure cell forming over Northern England 

Cold air will get caught up in it. The only reason why we haven't got -15C uppers yet is because the westward movement is slower. That isn't a bad thing in this case because its heading to us anyway 

Yes it's actually stopping the very cold air reaching UK shores. Still, plenty of snow for central/northern England anyway!

[Banbury 2,884]

Stunning 

 

[weirpig 10,238]

Just now, Snowy L said:

Deep cold doesnt even make it to West Europe on this run and just stays in Scandinavia. The positive is the Azores low is having a better go at undercutting.

Yes but.   Who wants deep cold when we have all of these kinks and shortwaves over us ? 

[ITSY 1,955]

Just now, Ice Day said:

OK, for the 'newbies' as they call themselves, this run is absolutely stonking, not as good as some over the last few days, but better than others.  At 162 we have a countrywide cold event with snow chances pretty high for everyone.  This it in a nutshell.  Stop worrying and enjoy the ride.

 

Wow. Find me a better February chart for snow this side of 2009. (NB, you can’t). This place is a right joke sometimes. 

[Snowy L 6,936]

Just now, weirpig said:

Yes but.   Who wants deep cold when we have all of these kinks and shortwaves over us ? 

True, t174 is a joke and why 18z has earned its pub run reputation. Wouldnt mind that though

[inghams85 1,011]

Absolutely insane snow amounts on this run I'd imagine with shortwave forming in situ over the British isles. If it's snow you want how can you not be happy with this?! ?

[Met4Cast 12,211]

Do you guys want -15c uppers and have it fairly dry or shortwaves/fronts moving across bringing widespread snowfall but uppers are a little more moderated? I know which one I would prefer, but some people in here don't seem to be able to make up their minds.

Incredible 18z run yet again, no change to the broad theme, bitterly cold, risk of widespread/significant snowfall next week. Lovely!

[nick sussex 64,012]

The GFS 18 hrs run takes a little longer to clear shortwave energy to the nw.

But even with this it’s better than the earlier 12 hrs run as there’s more forcing later on to disrupt more energy east into the Med rather than ne.

Edited February 21, 2018 by nick sussex

[SMU 80,650]

The 18z ia bin fodder - The shortwave will not remain stationary like that over NE Britain - 

Look at the 162 its like its been issued with 3 Upper Highs .3 developing highs about 10 shortwaves - then blindfolded & asked to throw them anywhere.

Which it has.

badly.

Edited February 21, 2018 by Steve Murr

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks 2,986]

GFS 18z run looks perfection for cold and snow to me.

I just want the cold to hurry up now.  Not because I am impatient but because every six hours I have such an exhausting read in the model thread!

Everyone will be off to the regionals come Sunday to ramp / complain *delete as applicable* about their snow chances but in here should be a far more relaxing read.  Phew!  

Edited February 21, 2018 by Kentish Snowman

[ITSY 1,955]

Just now, ITSY said:

Wow. Find me a better February chart for snow this side of 2009. (NB, you can’t). This place is a right joke sometimes. 

I take it back. 174. Europe’s parting gift to the UK - death by snow. Snexit. 

[Jason H 542]

3 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Stunning 

 

Look at that Northern blocking. That's a stunning chart! Snow possible anywhere over the UK!

Edited February 21, 2018 by Jason H

[I remember Atlantic 252 7,568]

Certainly an interesting feature, but GFS hanging on to it over us too long, but potential snowfest somewhere

[kold weather 12,065]

174hrs and the pattern is slowly evolving with the upper high shifting westwards, looks like its weakening the high way too rapidly however when compared with just about every other run, and this is a well known GFS flaw.

What it means is the GFS probably is shifting the cold uppers too far north, the pattern likely to be further SE as the upper high will probably be further SE as well, as poer nearly every other model...

Massive snow risk country wide on this run and plenty cold.

[karlos1983 21,819]

GFS 18z be like “you don’t actually expect me to be able to resolve this SSW stuff do ya”  

 

[Steel City Skies 2,677]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

The 18z ia bin fodder - The shortwave will not remain stationary like that over NE Britain - 

Look at the 162 its like its been issues with 3 Upper High, 3 developing highs about 10 shortwaves - then blindfolded & asked to throw them anywhere.

Which it has.

badly.

Alright own up, who spiked the 18z's pint? 

[MattStoke 6,455]

Messy snowfest for most from mid next week on this run, with some spots (e.g. SE) very snowy before then.

Bitterly cold with no marginality despite the lack of really deeper uppers. You don't need very low uppers in an easterly to get snow to sea level or for it to be bitter.

[Ayrshire weather 105]

Simply stunning! 

[Jason M 3,229]

Great pub run....... Anybody who thinks otherwise is off their rocker.

That said, its also complete nonsense after the initial cold push. The sheer depth of the cold pool is clearly causing GFS some issues here.

 

 

Edited February 21, 2018 by Jason M