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Paul

Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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The High is becoming a little  issue on this run  However always gonna be a few differences run to run.  However i dont think it will stop the bitter  air in coming again over Europe.  edit   Bugger 

Edited by weirpig

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2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

You may recall from 2010 a similar situation where it looked like the pressure was too high over Eastern Scotland, however I believe Dundee was buried with thunder snow etc. Wait for the high res models to come in range before you panic.

In this case we're under the 'orange' part of the high pressure, in 2010 we were under the 'green' - still conducive for snowfall. Anyhow. one run, let's see the ensembles and what ECM has to say. PS - the ECM run this morning (especially the latter part) is the best output I've ever seen for Eastern Scotland.

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6 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

The PPN is okay for the north at that point but it's the way that GFS goes that is the danger, the high is now squeezing out the cold flow from Europe, now -9/10 as opposed to reaching -15.

gfs-0-192_hyq3.png  gfs-1-192_geh0.png

Aye but at least it's not backing off to anything more marginal. A few weeks ago we'd have given our back teeth for -9 uppers, think the fantasy style uppers have spoilt our expectations?

Whatever it's a belting end to the meteorological winter!

Edited by JeffC

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Still an amazing run but we all want perfection now we have this Amazing synoptic on our doorstep

Edited by Mucka

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The high was an issue on the 06z GFS and UKMO as well but seems to have been glossed over.

ECM had a very different solution so maybe that is going to steady the ship later but GFS and the way it increases blocking from t144 down to t0 is a direction we don't want to see this time. 

Hopefully a temporary blip.

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Bit concerning for "severe cold" but still plenty of room for "cold". However it's a single run and I've got a sneaky suspicion this is at the very mildest end of the runs.

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The GFS run is fine, the general evolution is pretty much in the same vein as the 06z output, just slight differences in the reverse zonal flow we see as the cold air from the east interacts with low pressure in the Atlantic. This will change from run to run.

The GEM to be honest I must say I am a little dubious, the cold pool is much more intense earlier on which seems to be the issue which causes it to become slow moving and amble around despite strong forcing from the blocking high to our north. 

The Arpege is fine, it is hard to tell how much of a delay there would be with the cold but that air can only go in one direction, deeper into Europe and eventually the UK.

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1 minute ago, JeffC said:

Aye but at least it's not backing off to anything more marginal. A few weeks ago we'd have given our back teeth for -9 uppers, think the fantasy style uppers have spoilt our expectations?

Whatever it's a belting end to the meteorological winter!

The difference between the two can make a big difference as regards convection. Snow can fall, yes,but that isn't the reason we would benefit from the colder uppers we were getting before this run.

Let's look at the ensembles and see where it lies though.. 

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To be fair..you wont get a perfect setup in every single run on every single model. 

From what i can see it looks to me like sustained cold, awful temps, bitter biting winds too...and sustained snowfall pushing in from the north sea. If youre cornwall, devon etc then youll feel the pinch. If youre along the eastern counties and SE you'll certainly know about it. At last..

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9 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

You may recall from 2010 a similar situation where it looked like the pressure was too high over Eastern Scotland, however I believe Dundee was buried with thunder snow etc. Wait for the high res models to come in range before you panic.

Yes 12 hours of thundersnow as the winds turned Easterly. Gave over 40 cms before they turned back into the NE a couple of days later. We need these uppers to be under -12C and with enough wind strength though which most models do give us. The HP must not get any closer as it retrogresses!

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GEM is frustrating. 

 

gem-0-168.png?12

 

Need to lose that shortwave southeast of Scandinavia. UKMO is fine. GFS is a drier run and overall less cold than previous but it is only one op run. 

 

Warning signs very much in the ballooning of the high. We have been here before...

 

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The Gfs 12z is not as cold or snowy as the 6z  next week...much less extreme but still wintry.:)

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

What exactly is the problem here... I’m struggling 

C8EC25BE-3505-4F57-AF6C-300E2D0D5745.thumb.gif.66ad6496d119b5d9cb706bfd6e56a3fe.gif4136FE9B-C69D-4ABA-A9C2-F50BDAB13380.thumb.gif.0a822427ebe1429eb989b459f75f0943.gif75D757EB-25C1-4D50-88E9-401216420DA4.thumb.gif.bfaeb0eaa8de2ccf353bcecf70268978.gif26A9ACE4-5BDC-4501-A20F-E105AE4BD0A6.thumb.gif.f9f5a83fa0d49000ca40275f0b919d7d.gif

Yep  Week Saturday  under a North Easterly  and bitter uppers.  I suppose we can sometimes get a little greedy with whats on offer

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GFS shiting the main pool of cold air to our friends in mainland Europe by the end of next week still cold for the UK but a slight recovery in temps

DWfi50UXUAEX1Fj.thumb.jpg.7a20199ff60a88807acc91b9ab6cc283.jpg

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

What exactly is the problem here... I’m struggling 

C8EC25BE-3505-4F57-AF6C-300E2D0D5745.thumb.gif.66ad6496d119b5d9cb706bfd6e56a3fe.gif4136FE9B-C69D-4ABA-A9C2-F50BDAB13380.thumb.gif.0a822427ebe1429eb989b459f75f0943.gif75D757EB-25C1-4D50-88E9-401216420DA4.thumb.gif.bfaeb0eaa8de2ccf353bcecf70268978.gif26A9ACE4-5BDC-4501-A20F-E105AE4BD0A6.thumb.gif.f9f5a83fa0d49000ca40275f0b919d7d.gif

I think it's the fact it's not a nationwide snow maker, plenty of people will be a little worried as pressure it much closer and more influential on this run

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Just now, karlos1983 said:

What exactly is the problem here... I’m struggling 

C8EC25BE-3505-4F57-AF6C-300E2D0D5745.thumb.gif.66ad6496d119b5d9cb706bfd6e56a3fe.gif4136FE9B-C69D-4ABA-A9C2-F50BDAB13380.thumb.gif.0a822427ebe1429eb989b459f75f0943.gif75D757EB-25C1-4D50-88E9-401216420DA4.thumb.gif.bfaeb0eaa8de2ccf353bcecf70268978.gif26A9ACE4-5BDC-4501-A20F-E105AE4BD0A6.thumb.gif.f9f5a83fa0d49000ca40275f0b919d7d.gif

The high pressure to the north is inflating and pushes down on the system over us in succeeding frames. This keeps thinks okay for snow for a while but the coldest uppers are then cut off and by Wednesday the spell is cold but mostly dry.

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Its still an extremely good run, but by T+180 the high pressure is already retrogressing up towards Greenland. We're still all in around -12C 850hPa air, but the winds are more south-easterly by that point with the main cold pool aiming itself towards the continent rather than us. Its a subtle change compared to the 06z GFS, but would have large implications for the amount and duration of the heavy snow showers.

GFSOPEU12_180_1.png

I think the best way to describe this run is good but not great.

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Gfs heading down cluster 2 route!

gem going shortwave crazy 

whilst things remain good to day 5/6, the mid range is clearly far from a ‘done deal’. 

arpege - who knows !!!!

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Just now, ukpaul said:

The high pressure to the north is inflating and pushes down on the system over us in succeeding frames. This keeps thinks okay for snow for a while but the coldest uppers are then cut off and by Wednesday the spell is cold but mostly dry.

Variation of the ongoing theme! Little shifts here and there are to be expected! All looks fine from where I’m sitting!

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3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

What exactly is the problem here... I’m struggling 

C8EC25BE-3505-4F57-AF6C-300E2D0D5745.thumb.gif.66ad6496d119b5d9cb706bfd6e56a3fe.gif4136FE9B-C69D-4ABA-A9C2-F50BDAB13380.thumb.gif.0a822427ebe1429eb989b459f75f0943.gif75D757EB-25C1-4D50-88E9-401216420DA4.thumb.gif.bfaeb0eaa8de2ccf353bcecf70268978.gif26A9ACE4-5BDC-4501-A20F-E105AE4BD0A6.thumb.gif.f9f5a83fa0d49000ca40275f0b919d7d.gif

Basically with the high sitting over the UK we see the coldest air - that's been sitting over the UK the past few runs go straight through France and Spain, making this a much less severe event and taking parts of northern UK out the game.

Quote

 

 

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Looking at the GFS this afternoon, I have to say given the time of year it's snow I want to see now...with this being said I think I'd take the GEM solution. Let's concentrate on getting some precipitation injected into the cold. The GFS is pretty poor in this regard given what we have witness it churn out previously.

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