Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

Can just tell the GFS is going to blow up that Norway shortwave into a full blown low and link it to the azores low. What is its fascination with doing things like that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

Honestly don’t see what’s wrong with this run so far. Looks good to me, perhaps even better than 12z as we go further down line. Cold just delayed initially by a few hours if that.

Edited by bradythemole
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire
Just now, Ayrshire weather said:

Hmm not liking this so far....

h850t850eu.png

Looks darn cold to me if I’m honest. Certainly better than blow torch southwesterlys. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

GFS at day 5

gfs-0-114.png?18 

 ECM

ECM1-120.GIF?21-0

So it is further north than the ECM, I don't think anymore needs to be said here. Deep cold arrives on this run Monday morning (-10C into the south east by 7am).

Heavy snow moving in on Tuesday as that wave pushes west.

So the GFS is further south this run compared to the 12z, but that was verging on being a little too far north giving the cold pool enough room to develop complications, this run looks cleaner and the advection of cold air is even stronger from the north east.

I must admit, very little confidence in how this will pan out, to be honest there is no real trend with the models tending to throw long fetch easterlies and then quickly cut them out on the next run.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
4 minutes ago, Fred Sykes said:

Quite a slack flow though isn't it? looks cold, but not very snowy

give me strength...hope it's not going to be like this for the next 40 odd minutes if the GFS descends into one.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Monday/Tuesday uppers are generally 1C 'less cold' than the 12z. We are talking minor differences here and certainly not worth getting upset about.

We have a minor southerly correction on this ONE OPERATIONAL run but on the whole it is still looking just fine for cold. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Giravn
  • Location: Giravn
2 minutes ago, AmershamMike said:

Why?! For goodness sake explain yourself man

The slightly milder Air to the west seems to be acting like a wall... it's a great chart just wish that slightly milder Air would break down to allow the cold to flood in a more westerly direction

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Also whilst we are no longer getting the -15C in this first easterly blast, -10C down to -12C is still plenty cold enough for snow and cold and there will still be decent showers in north sea from this, especially as the pressure starts to drop.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

nothing wrong with the 18z. As we were. Also for the eagle eyed this run the same as the 12z has heavy snow  showers hitting London.   Panic ! 

Edited by weirpig
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

The pub run at T150 unleashes a herd of undead frozen, wildebeests of cold galloping directly at the UK across a frozen sea, what next, a full blown zombie apocalypse?

One such beast pictured here

gfs-1-150.png?18

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Shanklin, isle of wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and more snow
  • Location: Shanklin, isle of wight
13 minutes ago, tinybill said:

this for monday

gfs-2-168.png

I see a little disturbance in the channel there for us southern coastal folk! Will be wonderful not having to check if the dew point is favourable!!! ??

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
4 minutes ago, Snowmaggedon said:

This is so confusing to follow from a newbies perspective. Conflicting posts every minute. Is this run North or South? 

The upper high is more NE as it focuses on the northern part of the upper high, most other models are quickly strengthening the western end of the upper high and transferring to an Iceland/Greenland high.

Whilst verynice, the GFS op is a very different evolution to many other models in how it deals with the upper high, nearly all models focus on developing the western end, where as the GFS is really dragging its heals with this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

gfs-0-156.png?18

And some people dismiss the GFS and its "westerly" bias. It manages a westerly across the south even in the grips of a long fetch easterly flow. :rofl:

I will add it will still be very cold. 

I must admit, the GFS is making a right meal out of that shallow system which most other models sweep through quite quickly.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...