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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent

    Can just tell the GFS is going to blow up that Norway shortwave into a full blown low and link it to the azores low. What is its fascination with doing things like that.

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    Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

    Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

    Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

    Honestly don’t see what’s wrong with this run so far. Looks good to me, perhaps even better than 12z as we go further down line. Cold just delayed initially by a few hours if that.

    Edited by bradythemole
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    Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire
    Just now, Ayrshire weather said:

    Hmm not liking this so far....

    h850t850eu.png

    Looks darn cold to me if I’m honest. Certainly better than blow torch southwesterlys. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
    1 minute ago, Ayrshire weather said:

    Hmm not liking this so far....

    h850t850eu.png

    Really? Looks very good to me....

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    GFS at day 5

    gfs-0-114.png?18 

     ECM

    ECM1-120.GIF?21-0

    So it is further north than the ECM, I don't think anymore needs to be said here. Deep cold arrives on this run Monday morning (-10C into the south east by 7am).

    Heavy snow moving in on Tuesday as that wave pushes west.

    So the GFS is further south this run compared to the 12z, but that was verging on being a little too far north giving the cold pool enough room to develop complications, this run looks cleaner and the advection of cold air is even stronger from the north east.

    I must admit, very little confidence in how this will pan out, to be honest there is no real trend with the models tending to throw long fetch easterlies and then quickly cut them out on the next run.

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors

    Light snow showers moving into eastern areas on Monday.

    114-779UK.GIF?21-18

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

     

    Edited by weirpig
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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    4 minutes ago, Fred Sykes said:

    Quite a slack flow though isn't it? looks cold, but not very snowy

    give me strength...hope it's not going to be like this for the next 40 odd minutes if the GFS descends into one.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield

    Monday/Tuesday uppers are generally 1C 'less cold' than the 12z. We are talking minor differences here and certainly not worth getting upset about.

    We have a minor southerly correction on this ONE OPERATIONAL run but on the whole it is still looking just fine for cold. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Giravn
  • Location: Giravn
    2 minutes ago, AmershamMike said:

    Why?! For goodness sake explain yourself man

    The slightly milder Air to the west seems to be acting like a wall... it's a great chart just wish that slightly milder Air would break down to allow the cold to flood in a more westerly direction

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Also whilst we are no longer getting the -15C in this first easterly blast, -10C down to -12C is still plenty cold enough for snow and cold and there will still be decent showers in north sea from this, especially as the pressure starts to drop.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    nothing wrong with the 18z. As we were. Also for the eagle eyed this run the same as the 12z has heavy snow  showers hitting London.   Panic ! 

    Edited by weirpig
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    The pub run at T150 unleashes a herd of undead frozen, wildebeests of cold galloping directly at the UK across a frozen sea, what next, a full blown zombie apocalypse?

    One such beast pictured here

    gfs-1-150.png?18

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield

    Looks like a second pulse of very cold uppers waiting in the wings (N Sea) at 150hrs...

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    Posted
  • Location: Shanklin, isle of wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and more snow
  • Location: Shanklin, isle of wight
    13 minutes ago, tinybill said:

    this for monday

    gfs-2-168.png

    I see a little disturbance in the channel there for us southern coastal folk! Will be wonderful not having to check if the dew point is favourable!!! ??

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    4 minutes ago, Snowmaggedon said:

    This is so confusing to follow from a newbies perspective. Conflicting posts every minute. Is this run North or South? 

    The upper high is more NE as it focuses on the northern part of the upper high, most other models are quickly strengthening the western end of the upper high and transferring to an Iceland/Greenland high.

    Whilst verynice, the GFS op is a very different evolution to many other models in how it deals with the upper high, nearly all models focus on developing the western end, where as the GFS is really dragging its heals with this.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    gfs-0-156.png?18

    And some people dismiss the GFS and its "westerly" bias. It manages a westerly across the south even in the grips of a long fetch easterly flow. :rofl:

    I will add it will still be very cold. 

    I must admit, the GFS is making a right meal out of that shallow system which most other models sweep through quite quickly.

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

    Thank you!

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