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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


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Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
    3 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

    No. A strongly negative NAO is highly indicative of a Greenland high.

    Thanks mate, I thought it basically showed stalling of the normal oscillation not a swift reversal towards the area mentioned.

    Cheers.

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    Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

    Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

    Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    At the end of the day, based on the 12z runs, all coldies across the uk should be winners, the South of Britain from the Easterly and the North from a Northerly following retrogression..the only losers in all this are those looking for a return of mild!:)

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Just going through the ECM ensembles run by run,currently upto 00z 27th and alot of very good runs, at least in terms of pressure distribution many look roughly in the same ballpark as the operational run, maybe just a smidge higher on average.

    Anyway still got a large amount of runs thrusting cold air westwards onthe 27th, though with the note that there are some runs that disrupt the easterly early,.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellington, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Wellington, Somerset
    2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    Wrong thread.....Do not get the worriers going again.Many thanks.

    You have mis - interpreted my comment, Its a positive because its represents how vast the cold pool is! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    1 minute ago, MattTarrant said:

    You have mis - interpreted my comment, Its a positive because its represents how vast the cold pool is! 

    Sorry Matt it was regarding the post you replied to anyhoo all looking rather cold next week.:)

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    Posted
  • Location: Nutts Corner
  • Location: Nutts Corner
    3 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    Wrong thread.....Do not get the worriers going again.Many thanks.

    I’m worried....worried that the wife doesn’t believe me and won’t have the higher tog duvet out for Sunday night.

    Who wouldn’t be happy with GFS precipitation charts.....something for all where the white fluffy stuff that falls from the sky is concerned.

    I am looking forward to next week never mind the warming occurring again and the consequences of such 

    ECM:yahoo::cold:

    D9998B1D-7B22-4440-AA32-6153FF3A6612.png

    2E52E7FF-886B-4D05-BA95-84C11C3D3723.png

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Evidence that the poorer eps cluster is strat driven?  (and therefore probably due to the second warming causing some issues which the GFS suite probably won’t clearly see quite yet (as per last week)

    comparing the T180/T192 from the 12z/00z run clearly shows the increased pressure on the polar ridge on the earlier run compared with the noon one at 50 hpa

         651753DF-11F5-4320-B827-D7F6D19A733C.thumb.jpeg.1e8e5b59cdc412927c9563e6ed0c8202.jpeg1943A9CA-5381-4373-9951-30ACEE9D62D3.thumb.jpeg.d68a50e079871c1586bc2bc95cfb19c1.jpeg  

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    The first warming was harder for the models for the models to get a grip of compared to the second. The second warming is similar to a wave 1 on the residual daughter vortex over Hudson Bay.

    The first warming has helped produce the synoptic pattern over Eurasia assisting with the formation of the Scandi block. The retreat of the Hudson Vortex is very much related to the second warming. The benefit here is that a Greenland block can set up and prolong the cold spell. The risk - that it drifts too far west and a -ve west based NAO sets up.

    Could the second warming cause the high to drift further north next week, allowing the deepest cold and instability to affect the UK? Or would the response be somewhat slower?

    Presumably, the more messy output the past couple of days is a result of the second warming throwing the models into chaos.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The fact is, the GEFS mean / ECM 12z ensemble mean are fantastic if you're a coldie, a horror show if you're not!..I already posted the GEFS 12z mean earlier so below is the Ecm..very very cold!:cold-emoji:

    ECMAVGEU12_120_2.png

    ECMAVGEU12_144_2.png

    ECMAVGEU12_168_2.png

    ECMAVGEU12_192_2.png

    ECMAVGEU12_216_2.png

    ECMAVGEU12_240_2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Two things I'm seeing in terms of what the ECM ensembles areforecasting past 144hrs:

    1: Quick shift westwards of the high pressure towards Iceland/Greenland, very strong agreement on a 48hrs easterly followed by an attempt to shift the focus northwards...

    2: deepening of pressure over Iberia, much more noteable on the 12z suite overall. 

    Such a NE flow would be VERY likely to have embedded LPs within it and given the depth of cold at the surface, likely big snow possiblities. A risk of course milderair crops up from the south.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Evidence that the poorer eps cluster is strat driven?  (and therefore probably due to the second warming causing some issues which the GFS suite probably won’t clearly see quite yet (as per last week)

    comparing the T180/T192 from the 12z/00z run clearly shows the increased pressure on the polar ridge on the earlier run compared with the noon one at 50 hpa

         651753DF-11F5-4320-B827-D7F6D19A733C.thumb.jpeg.1e8e5b59cdc412927c9563e6ed0c8202.jpeg1943A9CA-5381-4373-9951-30ACEE9D62D3.thumb.jpeg.d68a50e079871c1586bc2bc95cfb19c1.jpeg  

     

    I've lost it here. So the 41% cluster (poor one)was related to the increased pressure on the ridge.(Strat driven)

    Then came the  noon one with less pressure on the ridge  and a better ECM run.

    Where does that leave the poor cluster?? Higher % or lower because I read it as lower for some reason

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    Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)

    Pleased to see snow showers streaming a long way inland according to the ECM for Monday. 

    180221_1200_120.thumb.png.b0c4098696f644f3d5fc5759ffc2541e.png180221_1200_126.thumb.png.1696bb0b3b29c8da8458c2be73a652fd.png180221_1200_132.thumb.png.63bd1a85d135d10553445ca57d659b51.png

    Edited by supernova
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham

    There is sharpening evident already on the ICON. One thing we need to keep an eye on us any upgrades in the nearer time frame from Sunday because I dont think this period is even done yet. Could still be upgraded 96-120 in my opinion 

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    I've lost it here. So the 41% cluster (poor one)was related to the increased pressure on the ridge.(Strat driven)

    Then came the  noon one with less pressure on the ridge  and a better ECM run.

    Where does that leave the poor cluster?? Higher % or lower because I read it as lower for some reason

    Those strat charts are derived purely from the ec op. The clusters are ensemble driven. 

    I wouldn’t have a strong opinion on what percentage the poor cluster will be later. It’s clearly still there.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Those strat charts are derived purely from the ec op. The clusters are ensemble driven. 

    I wouldn’t have a strong opinion on what percentage the poor cluster will be later. It’s clearly still there.

    Here's hoping the cluster reduces massively. I will add for newbies that the EPS clusters are not the be all and end all, but we would like the poor cluster to do one.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Those strat charts are derived purely from the ec op. The clusters are ensemble driven. 

    I wouldn’t have a strong opinion on what percentage the poor cluster will be later. It’s clearly still there.

    I think my gut would be it is lower having eyeballed all the ensemble runs, though as you say its very much still on the table. I'd say though there is decent ensemble agreement on the broad synoptics through to 28th now, but there is still variations. (easterly from 26-28th, followed during the 28th by a shift into another airmass) Less inthe way of flabby UK highs this run (just a few).Beyond that and you may as well throw a dart, I suspect the biggest shift maybe towards lower pressure over Iberia this suite.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    image.thumb.png.a6ac06953be528cd1d22e2cbd3190d1e.png

    image.thumb.png.36886aed31dc30bdd568f44f9f252c42.png

     

    Cold and Easterly driven for the foreseeable/reliable

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    The pub run - well it's the new going out, isn't it?  What do we want from this one, it has got a hard act to follow after the last few nights, but I'd settle for broadly following the ECM 12z, and then maybe some outrageous snow charts in the latter frames, just for fun.

    given ECM ens I expect a good one!

    ICON rolling, similar to the last run so far:

    icon-0-69.png?21-18

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
    4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    Here's hoping the cluster reduces massively. I will add for newbies that the EPS clusters are not the be all and end all, but we would like the poor cluster to do one.

    You are going to have to explain further (for me anyway) regarding the poor cluster from those charts. ( a Rolph Harris job) as this is really over my head.

    Thanks.

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    Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
    Just now, Mike Poole said:

    The pub run - well it's the new going out, isn't it?  What do we want from this one, it has got a hard act to follow after the last few nights, but I'd settle for broadly following the ECM 12z, and then maybe some outrageous snow charts in the latter frames, just for fun.

    ICON rolling, similar to the last run so far:

    icon-0-69.png?21-18

    I would like to see the Azores low moving east instead of North in the mid-range. Not a crazy request seeing as winds reversed by 30m/s just a few days ago.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Icon looking good! Better angle coming by the looks of it..

    1E40BDD1-6D99-4B97-A9CC-BCA272099BBA.thumb.png.1934cd3f4c17f95aa4341b17c6fab55a.png15BFDC16-AD8C-4EF4-9429-FA9681B18DA8.thumb.png.95ea93be29b353c675a3efdd5a711649.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)

    Early stages of ICON showing a larger/bigger continental cold pool and better alignment for the cold to advect West faster.

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

    Thank you!

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