Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

[tight isobar]

Wow.. mint!!

like to see the high drift direcly northward..

To aid prolongmemt..

Cracking ecm

 

 

 

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

They’ve already had 2 sliders they can bugger off ?

We've had snow from the north, south and west this winter. It's about time it came from the east.

?

Hopefully this run will calm people a bit. All we've learned these past few days is that much is to be resolved but cold and snow (for some) is certain.

[DOdo]

41 minutes ago, DOdo said:

The models have wobbled and thats to be expected under the present circumstances. My bet is Friday is when we will have a better idea of how cold it will become. I wouldnt see the wobbles as being  negative. Gut feeling the ECM wont make it any more clearer At leasr it stays cold

At least its wobbling in the right direction Classic so far

[snow mad]

Now that’s what I call a cold pool. -2024

[nick sussex]

It’s all about timing here.

Just enough delay to the OB to get the deep cold west. The ECM is great so far.

[snow mad]

2 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

-2024....Day after tmw scenario...

Beat me to it!

[Snowy L]

1 minute ago, snow mad said:

Now that’s what I call a cold pool. -2024

It was showing -2028 on the 00z, massive downgrade

Edited February 21, 2018 by Snowy L

[Stuie]

All looks a bit marginal to me....

Friggin` cracking.

[Banbury]

Just now, Stuie W said:

All looks a bit marginal to me....

Friggin` cracking.

Just for learners it’s not marginal snow for all where ppn falls 

[Summer Sun]

Bit of a southward shift at t192

[Southender]

Bloody ECM throwing out another mild outlier. One day it will trot out a proper cold run!.....Jesting obviously. Beautiful and clean and more importantly we are all in the game. Share the love people ?

[Radiating Dendrite]

5 minutes ago, Weather Wonder said:

Its about time i did a post on here which takes more than a couple of minutes to type so here we go.

Going to start off by quoting @Paul will save me alot of time posting charts and all from an unbiased source

So now we have the previous outputs we can start to come to a conclusion here, i will start with the most obvious.

There is NO strong easterly flow as was previously modelled.. this is key as it will push showers well inland and allow the colder sub -10 uppers to arrive quicker and remain over the british isles. For the majority of the southeast in particular for heavy settling snow the charts at the moment are just not enough.

As above the slack flow off the continent also increases the risk of shortwaves developing hence the varied outputs we are seeing now, the fact the models cant decide on the stregnth of the block is even more concerning.

This should go without saying but with March around the corner and the increasing stregnth of the sun we all need low temps to sustain snow cover for more than a day or too,m -5/-10 850s just wont cut it this time of year without a cold high pressure being in situ more so in the south and would be difficult in the north withouth altitude in this setup as currently modeled.

With the output downgrading the potential consistantly i think we should all be a bit more realistic, im not saying its not going to snow but based of the input, the best most places can hope for is a four day cold snap with a chance of snow a high posibilty but severe snow away from favoured spots is unlikely IMHO

 

 

Think you may need to check out the ECM - not a slack flow on that model. 

[Chris.R]

12Z on “Tableaux GEFS” at T183: less -12 or below members (now 9) but those remaining are colder; the lowest now -16.0. That’s for my location again. 

[winterof79]

For those not sure what the Secondary warming is doing here is your answer. Sister vortex today and later in the run.

Good night sweetheart and say hello to prolonged winter synoptic.

[Stuie]

Just now, Banbury said:

Just for learners it’s not marginal snow for all where ppn falls 

Sorry, forgot about them in my excitement / humour mate. I did say cracking though!

[Banbury]

Something from the NE

[Snowy L]

 

This is almost a copy of 5th Jan 2010. One of the best ever snow events in Liverpool and it produced this satellite image:

 

[Purga]

THis could be the pre-cursor to a massive snowfest!

Too far out but fascinating evolution now...

[SMU]

192 sees the Greenland high forming & a feature bringing snow south from the North-

double digit negative numbers over England the night before as skies clear & the easterly flow eases off- Deep snow by then & mega low dewpoints...

[Aiden2012]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Bit of a southward shift at t192

I'm assuming because the high pressure is off to Greenland and the flow is turning northerly could be wrong though 

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Bit of a southward shift at t192

Looks a bit like jan 2010 to me 

[matty40s]

2 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

It was showing -2028 on the 00z, massive downgrade

Pillock of the Day awarded 

Although some are saying the NW and North are missing out, they aren't, the cold is so far below norms that even they are getting a sideswipe off the main incoming Easterly.

The ECM has finally grabbed the idea that this isn't going to be affected by the Atlantic

[tight isobar]

Classic scenario of a drifting hp cell!!

Moves west then sinks a tad..

Taking the colder air on a southerly track.

I would'nt be concerened atm..

As the high modeling will change and minor exactions will have mass-ramifications.

We need a drift northwards...in an-ideal case.

Edited February 21, 2018 by tight isobar

[MattTarrant]

This is rather large upgrade in terms of cold, however, synoptically its cutting a fine line! This development of the omega block will continue to cause model volatility up until late tomorrow, if not into Friday. 

Edited February 21, 2018 by MattTarrant

[nick sussex]

Can the UK squeeze out an extra 12 hrs of that easterly flow, just enough to get the purple blob west.

Very exciting ECM run regardless.