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Paul

Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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Gfs  Shows how easy these showers will push inland   nearly in Wales

gfs-2-162.png

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Models starting to come together on finer details. 

UKMO from yesterday compared to today's.

UW144-21.GIF?19-12 UW120-21.GIF?20-17

GFS same time

gfs-0-144.png?12 gfs-0-120.png?12

 

 

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1 minute ago, Hegzyy said:

uhhh ohh, ARPEGE high res model, more likely to get these things correct

Let hope it has an off day and it discards the shortwave in later output.

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The elongation of the high pressure is really not doing us any favours for those in the northern half of the uk.

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4 minutes ago, karyo said:

So far from the 12z's ICON and UKMO are great but the Aprege is a disappointment with a clear shortwave developing in Scandinavia!

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegee_cartes.php?&ech=114&mode=0

That ties in with GEM's idea of a trough developing in same area.

I am sure as we head closer to next monday things will pop up that are not shown now... for better or WORSE!!!

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15 minutes ago, Altostratus said:

That is one crazy ICON run. At 180hr there is pocket of -28C 850hPa air almost within touching distance of the BI!

Not touching distance being up in Scandi, but a damn cold pool of air over Europe just the same. Just look at the projected 2m temps.

icon-1-180.png

icon-9-180.png

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Just now, doctor32 said:

That ties in with GEM's idea of a trough developing in same area.

I am sure as we head closer to next monday things will pop up that are not shown now... for better or WORSE!!!

This is for worse unfortunately as the shortwave cuts off the cold air from the east. It may be temporary but we can do without it.

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

This will not be a dry easterly with scattered snow showers

as per ukmo 120-144 - there will be non stop snow in the East & SE , NE & this will push across England & become more broken / spread - so yes if you live in the west It wont be quite as good to start with.

As mentioned now by me / Nick L etc etc this is lake effect snow. 1 day of perfect allignment will bring ~20-40 cms of snow in the best areas - up to 10 on average-

The flow looks to be sustained 2-4 day poss longer.... do the maths....

Agree, such a long track over warmer than usual waters in north sea and expected much colder than normal 850's...

Some big snow showers (thundersnow) and prolonged in places :D

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1 minute ago, karyo said:

This is for worse unfortunately as the shortwave cuts off the cold air from the east. It may be temporary but we can do without it.

GFS has shown this feature for ages. It actually heads west and gives scotland a good snowfall.

gfs-2-120.png?12

Over norway

gfs-2-156.png?12

Impact on scotland.

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The GFS and UKMO looks great again so far. The GEM looks good. There is a concern with the APERGE with that shortwave. Let's hope it's a one off, if you are a coldie, and changes on the next run.

Now over to the ECM later.

IMG_1697.PNG

IMG_1698.PNG

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15 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Precipitation at this point probably limited to The Wash and further south, but there's plenty of instability and cold upstream for T168/T192.

GFS 12Z now not far away from the ECM 00Z

The PPN is okay for the north at that point but it's the way that GFS goes that is the danger, the high is now squeezing out the cold flow from Europe, now -9/10 as opposed to reaching -15.

gfs-0-192_hyq3.png  gfs-1-192_geh0.png

EDIT: This is what was warned about earlier, people should be looking at the way that goes before suggesting this is as good a run. Lower uppers being squeezed back to continental Europe equals shorter for everyone.

Edited by ukpaul

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The HP is getting too big for its boots..

h500slp.png

Wants to start playing silly beggars manoeuvring around and trying to cut off the direct continental feed 

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4 minutes ago, Sawel said:

The elongation of the high pressure is really not doing us any favours for those in the northern half of the uk.

Also it will more likely introduce warm sectors during the transition to Greenland high. Just one run though.

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4 minutes ago, Sawel said:

The elongation of the high pressure is really not doing us any favours for those in the northern half of the uk.

You may recall from 2010 a similar situation where it looked like the pressure was too high over Eastern Scotland, however I believe Dundee was buried with thunder snow etc. Wait for the high res models to come in range before you panic.

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1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Also it will more likely introduce warm sectors during the transition to Greenland high. Just one run though.

Hope the ensembles paint a better picture. This is the first output I've looked at in a few days and felt disappointed.

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2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Also it will more likely introduce warm sectors during the transition to Greenland high. Just one run though.

A bit like the 06z did.

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Hmmm, still a great GFS run, but a little heart stopping towards the end of high res. The HP is being a bit of a pain in the 'arris this time around. No Thank You, don't start playing silly beggars now.

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1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

You may recall from 2010 a similar situation where it looked like the pressure was too high over Eastern Scotland, however I believe Dundee was buried with thunder snow etc. Wait for the high res models to come in range before you panic.

If they show the same as the Aperge I think I will give that a miss lol

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5 minutes ago, pandit-scholar said:

The GFS and UKMO looks great again so far. The GEM looks good. There is a concern with the APERGE with that shortwave. Let's hope it's a one off, if you are a coldie, and changes on the next run.

Now over to the ECM later.

IMG_1697.PNG

IMG_1698.PNG

Sorry, didn't wait to see the high in the next frame, which becomes the "enemy". Some of the UK could end up being in the block with the continental Europe seeing the "worst" of the cold as a result. 

But still too early and the finer details will change from run to run I suppose.

Edited by pandit-scholar

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