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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
53 minutes ago, Southender said:

 Please, if you do not understand how to read the models correctly either ask a question or read up on things

And some very pompous posts here too it seems! Some people have opinions from experience the way the runs will go. Steve Murr gets lauded here for his positive outlook, but in the past, has had to admit defeat more often than not. Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge fan of Steve's and most of the hardened model watchers here, but just because Steve posts positive stuff, he rarely gets lambasted. However, the way of the pear has been the curse for many potent easterlies in the past, and we've been burned too many times!!!

Moving on, the timing was always up for grabs, and with the 2nd warming thrown into the mixer, the reality is, we won't have any firm idea until the 12's tomorrow or even Friday. We will need to get this with 72hrs of Monday's real cold arrival, because it's an incredibly unusual set up, and the models are quite obviously struggling... Again, the meso-scale examination by us all that are seeking the holy grail, makes it seem even more flip-flop.

Patience and time and less of the sniping at both the experienced and less experienced posters and this will make the ride into the deep cold more enjoyable.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

I’m a little dubious of the GFS 12 hrs run .

It’s not the correction north as that’s within the envelope of solutions but it’s lack of interest in developing an Omega block .

Thats the reason milder conditions move up from the sw.

Differences in timing in terms of the evolution to the Omega block are likely but a no show from it are highly unlikely.

 

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Dundee - 140m ASL
  • Location: Dundee - 140m ASL

Whilst GFS is a good run in general and the GEFS are excellent, it's the UKMO showing high pressure to be a bit too dominant at 120 and 144hrs. I really don't think the UKMO will be far wrong at 120hrs. However, the high pressure is retrogressing to Greenland on the UKMO output so down the line we could be looking at good easterly/north easterly so people's nerves will be shot by then! Over to the ECM now.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire

Keep calm everyone, the beast is coming to pay his visit next week, severity of cold and snow is to be determined.

GEFS Mean at 168 shows how things could set up perfectly for us, potential disruptive snow, esp in east.

Ukmo, although not as good, would still give England and Wales a good shot at snow showers, with ofc the potential for streamers.

21_168_500mb (1).png

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Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

I’m a little dubious of the GFS 12 hrs run .

It’s not the correction north as that’s within the envelope of solutions but it’s lack of interest in developing an Omega block .

Thats the reason milder conditions move up from the sw.

Differences in timing in terms of the evolution to the Omega block are likely but a no show from it are highly unlikely.

 

You should know from previous situations(think March 2013) to be sceptical of GFS ouput showing a quick return to milder conditions

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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
8 minutes ago, Nick123 said:

I'm so confused. Are things looking good??

The thing to remember is many probably like me we’re hoping to see an exceptional spell of cold weather with the main cold pushing through the Uk with -15to -20 uppers and great snow showers. The UKMO has shifted this into France which is a shame. Nevertheless -10 uppers are still “freeze” worthy with temps 2 or 3 by day. Don’t know about the snow but I would imagine this is a dryer run.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
20 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

This is the point i made earlier and is what the ukmo 12z shows although southern uk would still be in the firing line whereas further north would be dry and bright with light winds and not as cold...of course I want to see the high further north with a nationwide freeze but me wishing that won't make any difference, whatever will be will be!:)

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

We..I should say all coldies won't want to see any more southward adjustment of the high or it will be just dry and chilly under high pressure with light winds and a great big fuss about nothing so hopefully it won't be the trend!:)

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
8 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Repeat after me: This is not the thread for Met Office or media forecasts.

Where can I find them on this forum?

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The difference between the mean, control and Op begins around the 28th the mean remains cold for a while with only a slow rise through early March but staying below 0

graphe_ens3_bxj4.thumb.gif.2faa134a394c0d4de2bd0c2433044b3a.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
5 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

The thing to remember is many probably like me we’re hoping to see an exceptional spell of cold weather with the main cold pushing through the Uk with -15to -20 uppers and great snow showers. The UKMO has shifted this into France which is a shame. Nevertheless -10 uppers are still “freeze” worthy with temps 2 or 3 by day. Don’t know about the snow but I would imagine this is a dryer run.

Not a dry run and 850s of -10 with -12 on East coast

Screenshot_20180221-175011.png

Screenshot_20180221-175200.png

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey / Kent border
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow
  • Location: Surrey / Kent border

4 sets of ENS, look at all the volatility, no one can be sure at this point!

18Z Last Night...

5a8db19f55f02_ScreenShot2018-02-21at17_49_59.thumb.png.1c2a4cf615d837d526a7f9f586551488.png

0Z this morning...

5a8db1c800cde_ScreenShot2018-02-21at17_50_13.thumb.png.9c98ca32eebebf3a1258c1e03ce6d634.png

6Z...

5a8db205c474f_ScreenShot2018-02-21at17_52_45.thumb.png.975e8a29db99b69fb2e21849b78df68f.png

And finally the 12Z

5a8db235d6d52_ScreenShot2018-02-21at17_49_38.thumb.png.84308d5eb24cb5a3b24195642352f851.png

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Posted
  • Location: Lucan Co Dublin
  • Location: Lucan Co Dublin

The models have wobbled and thats to be expected under the present circumstances. My bet is Friday is when we will have a better idea of how cold it will become. I wouldnt see the wobbles as being  negative. Gut feeling the ECM wont make it any more clearer:smile: At leasr it stays cold

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

Ensembles show the 12z is rather milder compared to the spread in the later stages of its run.

gefsens850London0 (1).png

gefstmp2mmaxLondon (1).png

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Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East

Shame the mods have had to remove so many of the clairvoyant’s posts today ! We could have compared them to the harsh reality next week 

anyway , this ecm run looks 12 hours ahead to me ?

sorry just trying to lighten the mood after 2 hours of carnage! 

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

Small 850hpa temperatures changes up to T96 on the GFS and ECM, ECM maybe 6 hours behind in bringing in the cold, but a deeper cold pool over Russia.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Looks better to our NW to me regarding flattening of the high

Screenshot_20180221-181729.png12z

Screenshot_20180221-181909.png00z

Edited by winterof79
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