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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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1 hour ago, Mucka said:

Mid afternoon appraisal.

Where are we?

On the cusp of a very cold spell

Where are we going?

Into the freezer.

How long for?

At the very least for 7  days from Feb 26th but chilly before then and likely cold for a good while longer.

How much snow?

Give me the million dollars and I will answer.

But, snow showers should begin around the 27th for the E, becoming heavier and getting further inland over the next few days with potential for one or two periods of more organised snow which may get further West

Thereafter all is dependent on how the retrogression takes shape with either continued E flow with snow showers for the E and possibly more general snow attempting to push in from the SW at times or showers dying off for a time before a NE flow and bands of organised snow showers pushing SE or a slow breakdown.

The amount of snow will be dependent on how far North/South the high is, how strong the flow is, any embedded troughs for first phase, especially for the West. If you are in the East you are pretty much guaranteed lying snow at some point.

 

Yes

But what about the Quasi Polar - Scandanavian Low?

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Im trying to recall without looking if the last post I made in here was 2010... 
Grover watch tells me its going to be very cold and from all of the charts I have perused in this forum over the last couple of days (without reading much of the attending text) I dont know why some persist with practicing one foot in the grave.. Perhaps best to refer back to John Holmes post on page 23 regarding the latest 500mb anomaly chart from NOAA, and the corrosponding strong indication of Northern blocking.. what else do you need yet ? (please dont answer this)

Looking forward to posting come Tuesday on how long this will last for, when most people will be nowcasting in their regional threads and model output discussion will have some breathing space

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2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Where is this one from?

NB - I actually thin the post below should be saying Sunday (not Thursday) night  - looks like the visualisation is for T0 26-2-18, but yes a link would be good:)

12 minutes ago, Richard David McCarthy said:

Capture9.thumb.PNG.d81faaf68a793f80f3b7320b14eeef15.PNGThis is the Latest 850hpa Temperatures GFS run at 06Z 114 hours shows the blast knocking on Eastern England and Scotland Thursday night.

 

 

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Whilst I'm really excited about what the models are currently showing, which is a direct hit of Easterly winds sourced in siberia  with snow showers / drifting and severe wind-chill, penetrating frosts etc..there is still uncertainty whether the uk will be hit full on or whether the strongest thrust of severe cold will be diverted further south into france but either way, next week looks like becoming very cold but obviously i'm hoping the uk bears the brunt of it with the high further north!:):cold: 

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as the Icon 12z begins to roll out remember the models are still adjusting to the effects of the 2nd warming and the icon was most consistent with the response to 1st warming. I believe this model is the only 1 with icosahedral grid which may/may not have been reason for it being more consistent during 1st warming. we will see how performs this time over next couple of days runs.

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13 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Whilst I'm really excited about what the models are currently showing, which is a direct hit of Easterly winds sourced in siberia  with snow showers / drifting and severe wind-chill, penetrating frosts etc..there is still uncertainty whether the uk will be hit full on or whether the strongest thrust of severe cold will be diverted further south into france but either way, next week looks like becoming very cold but obviously i'm hoping the uk bears the brunt of it with the high further north!:):cold: 

That really is the big picture in a nutshell. Im no longer watching the runs that closely until 72 hr range. Its coming and it will be good either way. 

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So I saved the ICON 6z & 12z for early Monday morning (T+117 & T+111) to compare the cold air arrival as there is so much discussion on it.

Any delay? :bomb:

iconeu_uk1-16-111-0.png

iconeu_uk1-16-117-0.png

Edited by Southender
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19 minutes ago, snow freak said:

An Easterly usually is from Russia (or Siberia).

Not Siberia, that is used way too loosely.  Siberian originating air to get to us is very rare.  Most Easterlies don’t come further east than The Ural Mountains.  But folk should be forgiven as it is generally used if not exactly accurate.  This thrust though looks unusual....and I don’t think there’ll be much ‘watering’ down as some might fear.

 

BFTP

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37 minutes ago, pages said:

as the Icon 12z begins to roll out remember the models are still adjusting to the effects of the 2nd warming and the icon was most consistent with the response to 1st warming. I believe this model is the only 1 with icosahedral grid which may/may not have been reason for it being more consistent during 1st warming. we will see how performs this time over next couple of days runs.

This should help, fascinating reading about how the ICON model works. (Not 'IKON' with a 'k' as I see some refer to it) https://www.dwd.de/EN/research/weatherforecasting/num_modelling/01_num_weather_prediction_modells/icon_description.html

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looks like that gfs 06 snowy run was not far off the mark looking at a certain forecast company update:yahoo:

 

will the the gfs run this afternoon get even more extreme regarding snow.

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