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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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Just now, danm said:

Are you really being picky over -12c uppers compared to -14c uppers? 

GFS shows -12c uppers into E Anglia on Monday with -10c across most of the east:

gfs-1-126.png?6

We then see -16c uppers closing in on the east coast by Wednesday:

gfs-1-174.png?6

Exactly, by next Wednesday! Yesterday it was showing those uppers a day or two earlier. 

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2 minutes ago, danm said:

Are you really being picky over -12c uppers compared to -14c uppers? 

GFS shows -12c uppers into E Anglia on Monday with -10c across most of the east:

gfs-1-126.png?6

We then see -16c uppers closing in on the east coast by Wednesday:

gfs-1-174.png?6

If a 2 degrees diff in uppers equates to 2 degs on the ground then that's the difference between blowing dry powdery snow and drip, drip

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1 minute ago, cheshire snow said:

Snow into Northern England by D8 cracking run snow for everyone at some

Stage next week.

C.S

Yes from 192 to 228 its a snow fest. (please note this will change if your new to this)

A bankable run if i have ever seen one!

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2 minutes ago, karyo said:

Exactly, by next Wednesday! Yesterday it was showing those uppers a day or two earlier. 

We are still getting sub -10c uppers into eastern England on Monday, so no delay. 

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10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

the 06z drifts a little towards the ec theme but in a way that is still good for uk cold/snow. Hopefully this is where the middle ground will be.  What we don’t want is a gfs step by step movement in a single direction, run by run. 

Sorry Blue, for us novices, can you briefly explain re "step by step movement in a single direction, run by run". Thanks.  

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Love that LP moving down the spine on 1st/2nd March. Look at the blooming mild sector though -7c/-8c 850's. When was the last time we saw something like that. A "mild sector" of -7/-8c with associated LP....let that sink in. Stunning.

Edited by Southender
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Just now, ptow said:

If a 2 degrees diff in uppers equates to 2 degs on the ground then that's the difference between blowing dry powdery snow and drip, drip

And which of us in the UK has been fortunate enough to see enough snow to picky over what bleeding consistency it is? I know I certainly haven't despite having a relatively snowy winter so far. 

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For me it’s not the depth of he cold per se but the temp differential caused by the uneven 850s and pockets of shallower warmer air. These will readily form waves, fronts and even low pressure systems with the warmer sector still -7 or so and -12 in the colder sector. These will produce high aptitude snow makers.  A shown by gfs

As we get into the t96-120 time range the models will readily start to play with these features. 

54F41FC1-7644-4091-AD9D-498C4518433C.jpeg

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5 minutes ago, karyo said:

Exactly, by next Wednesday! Yesterday it was showing those uppers a day or two earlier. 

Exactly what I've been saying but it either gets deleted or pushed aside!

Deep cold uppers were due Saturday, then Sunday, then Monday, next Tuesday now Wednesday! In fact I'll add it to my signature :)

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2 minutes ago, ptow said:

If a 2 degrees diff in uppers equates to 2 degs on the ground then that's the difference between blowing dry powdery snow and drip, drip

174-778UK.GIF?21-6174-101UK.GIF?21-6

Really? 

Temps at or below freezing for most central on eastern location, Dew point way below 0. Drip Drip shouldn't be an issue!
 

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If I had a pound for every time the incredible snowy charts were at 168/192 onwards I would be a very  rich man:D

The delays concern me simply because in my mind that gives more time for things to go wrong, I do think we will get there but the delaying of the 'true easterly' and the high looking a bit saggy at day 5 is my concern right now.

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2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

If you have a problem with the 06z then you should probably move somewhere with a colder climate! Very cold and snowy run.

 

tempresult_pbu3.gif

Spot on! Crazy to see people nitpicking a classic run like this :fool:

If this run verified as shown the vast majority would be very happy by the end of next week and would've perhaps even be tired of the snow! :D

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5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS 06 hrs run still not following the ECM 00 hrs run with the movement of the shortwave to the nw which is good news.

The GFS takes that nw and absorbs it upstream the ECM took this ne then east which effects the block set up.

 

 

Nick, aren't you concerned about all this deepening of the shortwaves? Of course, it looks like all snow on the 6z but we know they often eat away the cold uppers sort to speak and the mild sectors appear. 

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12 minutes ago, karyo said:

Exactly, by next Wednesday! Yesterday it was showing those uppers a day or two earlier. 

I am wondering if they are just being moderated a tad (and not by much!) as it approaches a closer timeframe rather than being delayed? I haven't had time to analyse charts this morning so I may be wrong.

Fantastic still. I'd of bitten my arm off for charts like these any year and we actually have something decent seemingly heading our way.

Edited by Chris K
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1 minute ago, Neilsouth said:

Exactly what I've been saying but it either gets deleted or pushed aside!

Deep cold uppers were due Saturday, then Sunday, then Monday, next Tuesday now Wednesday! In fact I'll add it to my signature :)

We have -13C uppers into the east on Monday afternoon on the 6z. It's getting cold if not very cold next week.

 

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5 minutes ago, karyo said:

Exactly, by next Wednesday! Yesterday it was showing those uppers a day or two earlier. 

Gota agree with you mate!!gfs  has delayed every push of cold air westwards since the 06z yesterday!!its so frustrating!!its weird cos ukmo seems persistant in bringing in the cold air earlier!!the only thing that has saved this run is the extra blast of cold air from the east at 168 hours!!i give it to the 12z for one last go to push that cold air in slightly earlier and if it doesnt then i expect ukmo to bring in the colder air midday monday aswell!!

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