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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
    6 minutes ago, Youcan'tbecirrus said:

    Many thanks Dan. If I am understanding correctly then, with regards precipitation, in the coming days we shouldn't be looking so much at what there is on the near continent as any precipitation will be determined by the high/steep lapse rates & sst's over the north sea ie in this instance, the low countries might see very little snowfall whereas we "could" see more and therefore the references to lake effect snow.        

    Yes that's true, although there could also be troughs or small areas of low pressure that develop and get caught up in the flow that develop over the continent, so look out for those too.

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    Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

    Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

    Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    I keep referring to it but that wave is on a par with 1987 levels of cold- 

    This will reinforce the cold with heavy snow arriving over the ENE

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    Posted
  • Location: Arklow on the East coast of Ireland
  • Location: Arklow on the East coast of Ireland
    21 minutes ago, jamieson87 said:

    The second chart here, what is this showing? Ground temperature? 

    It’s showing temperatures up at 850 hpa height or roughly 5000ft above sea level

    -10 at this time of year in strong sunshine might equate to zero or 1 c on the ground

    its also significant as it passes over the sea

    the colder it is relative to sea surface temps and the longer the track the more and the heavier showers you get

    You’d need a minimum of a 13c difference and preferably greater than a 50 miles sea track 

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
    17 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    Very consistent from the GFS out to 120 with cold air powering west.

    Feels like it takes an age for the -10C line to arrive, yesterday it’s was arriving Sunday afternoon today it’s on for Monday afternoon, but at least it gets here eventually. 

    Surface high looks like building further N on the 06z vs 00z and there are plenty of troughs in the isobars of the Ely flow to enhance the snow showers next week.

    What I like most about the 06z that’s an improvement on the 00z is a more pronounced 500mb cold pool / upper low moving west toward the UK, which would enhance snowfall potential as it crosses the N Sea from mid-week. Differences apparent upstream on charts below for 00z Weds 28th

    C4025BD1-0A0C-47DC-914B-589106D6A07E.thumb.png.8764a31b0717d046e2f9419d8ce7ccfb.png00z 0D8DF3B0-3C9B-409A-A136-332131E72290.thumb.png.b4cf768be1e12f909af0364f76b52bbf.png06z

    shaping up to be a good run so far

    Edited by Nick F
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    I keep referring to it but that wave is on a par with 1987 levels of cold- 

    This will reinforce the cold with heavy snow arriving over the ENE

    But it also delays the deep cold. Any delay is bad news in my book.

    The 6z takes till next Wednesday to bring the deep cold easterly. 

    Edited by karyo
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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)

    So the GFS 6z shows the first pulse of v. cold air arriving on Monday:

    gfsnh-1-126.png?6

     

    850's then drop back slightly before a second pulse of very cold air floods back into the UK:

    gfsnh-1-174.png?6

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    the 06z drifts a little towards the ec theme but in a way that is still good for uk cold/snow. Hopefully this is where the middle ground will be.  What we don’t want is a gfs step by step movement in a single direction, run by run. 

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    Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
    18 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    gfs-2-138.png?6

    Is that a Polar low off Norway? 

    Might be wrong but a classification of a polar low is a rapidly deepening cyclone native to the arctic. Technically then they can only really originate directly north from us.

    Nice to see precip charts are picking up on moisture as we get closer and closer to the beast from the east. Proper skiing snow, powdery and blowing around in the wind with drifting for the areas exposed to the wind.

    Edited by Optimus Prime
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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)

    Well I don't think any of us can really complain about the GFS 6z - cracking run from start to finish. Bitter cold almost the entire run, plenty of snow potential, better pulse of cold air into the UK rather than over the continent. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Deep cold already embedded at the surfave by then for 2 days - so its not delaying any cold- just deepening it -

    Relatively deep for UK standards but not nothing compared to what the models were showing yesterday, with a strong easterly and uppers -13 to -15. Of course it is still good but the shortwave development doesn't do us favours in terms of cold uppers.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kingswells, Aberdeen ~ 156m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Kingswells, Aberdeen ~ 156m asl

    Excellent run from the GFS and shows how important it is for that chunk of deep cold heading under the block to help carve the flow back towards the east. Hopefully this trend will be continued through today's runs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Hull
    Just now, karyo said:

    Relatively deep for UK standards but not nothing compared to what the models were showing yesterday, with a strong easterly and uppers -13 to -15. Of course it is still good but the shortwave development doesn't do us favours in terms of cold uppers.

    If it’s snow you’re looking for they are still cold enough! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    1 minute ago, karyo said:

    Relatively deep for UK standards but not nothing compared to what the models were showing yesterday, with a strong easterly and uppers -13 to -15. Of course it is still good but the shortwave development doesn't do us favours in terms of cold uppers.

    I don't think many will care how cold the uppers are rather than what is falling from the sky. 

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    Posted
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON

    GFS6z 

    is a snowfest bitterly cold easterly winds starting from Sunday with snow showers entering the east by late Sunday 

    then winter wonderland begins 

    :yahoo::yahoo:

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    Posted
  • Location: Live Thame (Oxfordshire), Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Thame (Oxfordshire), Work Heathrow Airport
    1 minute ago, karyo said:

    Relatively deep for UK standards but not nothing compared to what the models were showing yesterday, with a strong easterly and uppers -13 to -15. Of course it is still good but the shortwave development doesn't do us favours in terms of cold uppers.

    Crikey you are hard to please. better than a Northerly Toppler :rofl:

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
    1 minute ago, karyo said:

    Relatively deep for UK standards but not nothing compared to what the models were showing yesterday, with a strong easterly and uppers -13 to -15. Of course it is still good but the shortwave development doesn't do us favours in terms of cold uppers.

    Are you really being picky over -12c uppers compared to -14c uppers? 

    GFS shows -12c uppers into E Anglia on Monday with -10c across most of the east:

    gfs-1-126.png?6

    We then see -16c uppers closing in on the east coast by Wednesday:

    gfs-1-174.png?6

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    4 minutes ago, karyo said:

    Relatively deep for UK standards but not nothing compared to what the models were showing yesterday, with a strong easterly and uppers -13 to -15. Of course it is still good but the shortwave development doesn't do us favours in terms of cold uppers.

    Are you sure about that:gathering::cold:

    718E0371-A0E3-4B47-88DC-AD2B2E0E2B80.png

    3C2EC1AE-A2D2-4ED1-B369-567CD52C3403.png

    Edited by SLEETY
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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield
    2 minutes ago, John Hodgson said:

    If it’s snow you’re looking for they are still cold enough! 

    Absolutely! A very cold and snowy run and a marked improvement on the 00z longer term.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    The GFS 06 hrs run still not following the ECM 00 hrs run with the movement of the shortwave to the nw which is good news.

    The GFS takes that nw and absorbs it upstream the ECM took this ne then east which effects the block set up.

     

     

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

    Thank you!

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