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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


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Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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Posted
  • Location: Hereford.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms, sun, anything photogenic.
  • Location: Hereford.
    4 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

    Beautiful ecm mean, phew ;)

    EDM1-168 (1).gif

    How does this compare to yesterday's? Does this suggest the op is one of the 'milder' solutions?

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)

    So this mornings runs certainly dont want to see the very cold uppers reach us and given the size of change to 12 hours ago it shows how come sunday/monday things could be a long way from what we are all hoping for. Imo it will be friday evening sat morning until we have a firm idea of the beginning of next week.

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

    I bet all those who were berating Liam Dutton yesterday are regretting their comments yesterday. Looks like he could be correct. 

    Using a freely avilable and notoriously poor snow depth chart shouldnt inspire confidence in the tweet. One should question what info he has access to.

     

    Of course the nothing is decided part is spot on.

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Eps mean looks good but that op cluster is v visible on the spreads - let’s hope it’s not the largest any longer ! 

    Totally agree. We need to see a big swing away today from that worst case scenario cluster if we are to experience a truly historic spell of weather next week. The old saying, if it seems too good to be true then it probably is has been ringing in my ears all week. Let's see if the weather can put that saying to bed next week. 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Petherton 41 metres (134 feet)
  • Location: South Petherton 41 metres (134 feet)

    Those uppers are still conductive of snow even at sea level and temperatures will struggle above freezing 

    Edited by shane303
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    EC Mean an absolute carbon copy of UKMO @ 144..

    That will do nicely thankyou very muchly!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    Using a freely avilable and notoriously poor snow depth chart shouldnt inspire confidence in the tweet. One should question what info he has access to.

     

    Of course the nothing is decided part is spot on.

    I was referring to his other tweet about the main thrust of the beast from the east being deflected to our south. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    ecm to me actually looks snowier for more parts of the UK next week than previous runs.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    4 minutes ago, MKN said:

    So this mornings runs certainly dont want to see the very cold uppers reach us and given the size of change to 12 hours ago it shows how come sunday/monday things could be a long way from what we are all hoping for. Imo it will be friday evening sat morning until we have a firm idea of the beginning of next week.

    What charts are you looking then if you don’t think the uppers are not very cold sun into mon then ,unreal comments in here as usual 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire
    3 minutes ago, Barry Reynolds said:

    How does this compare to yesterday's? Does this suggest the op is one of the 'milder' solutions?

    It would suggest the Op is somewhat of an outlier, yes. Here is yesterdays 12z mean chart at 168, and today's side by side. If anything, i prefer the 0z. :)

    EDM1-168 (1).gif

    Screenshot_20180221-080225.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

    Awful mean. Below -10c 850's for at least Sun night to Fri night.  :wallbash:

     

    ecmt850.120.png

    ecmt850.168.png

    ecmt850.216.png

    Edited by Southender
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Location: Cambridge
    2 minutes ago, Mark Bayley said:

    ECM is towards the top of the 850hpa spread for London

    graphe_ens3.php?mode=0&x=318&y=142&run=0

    Omg it almost makes it as high as minus 5 at day 8. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

    We are likely to see high pressure retrogress toward Greenland, with the easterly flow changing to a northerly. The models this morning seem to be keen to do this rather quickly. I’d be surprised if we didn’t stay in the easterly flow for longer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Braintree, Essex
  • Location: Braintree, Essex
    4 minutes ago, Mark Bayley said:

    ECM is towards the top of the 850hpa spread for London

    graphe_ens3.php?mode=0&x=318&y=142&run=0

    just for once I wish the op run was from the bottom end of that chart!

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    7 minutes ago, Mark Bayley said:

    ECM is towards the top of the 850hpa spread for London

    graphe_ens3.php?mode=0&x=318&y=142&run=0

    Could even call it an outlier beyond 1 March, I actually see white space on the graph there between the op run and the spread.

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    26 minutes ago, Doctor96 said:

    I am from the north east of England and GFS to me is a bit disappointing this morning , i hope this is not the start of a trend to have the high further south , yes its cold but for us in north of uk not fantastic cold  like the early models were suggesting 

    I'm over near Stokesley and to be fair, the models would have to be showing a great deal further south at this point to put us out of the game. That is a very large cold pool, and we are a very small island in comparison. GFS is always progressive in its solutions right up to T-48hrs on some occasions. We won't miss out, but I would like to see a N.E breeze developing to get those convective showers on the go for us.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    11 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    Ecm was One of the warmest runs out of the entire set,not a surprise 

    By warmest you mean less severe..it was still cold / very cold:D

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
    2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

    Could even call it an outlier beyond 1 March, I actually see white space on the graph there between the op run and the spread.

    Absolutely. A bonafide outlier.

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

    Thank you!

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