Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    9 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    As per usual, ecm offers jam at day 9. It's beyond the joke now. 

    Jam tomorrow? Let's see more runs from here but this is not D9!!

    IMG_0610.PNG

    Edited by That ECM
    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 4k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

    Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

    Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
    12 minutes ago, Surrey said:

    Why are we looking so far ahead? Some of the south and across the east and infact west have woken up to frost, looks cold now from today with an easterly wind setting up further south, looking past Sunday currently is pointless. 

    With such variety in the output this morning it goes to show how useless we are at trying to forcast anything past day 3.

     

    The posts arent predicting the weather they are just showing the model output , people are commenting on model variation 

    Edited by Banbury
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

    Just to point out that ICON and GEM are still looking great, and the GEM has been outperforming the GFS lately.

     

    icon-0-144.png

    icon-0-168 (1).png

    gem-0-144.png

    gem-0-168 (1).png

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
    4 minutes ago, Banbury said:

    The posts are predicting the weather they are just showing the model output , people are commenting on model variation 

    I get that bit, but we shouldn't get to hung up on it, the GFS had a slight wobble yesterday and we went into meltdown. 

    The other issue is we are now looking east for our weather as opposed to the west. This is totally different and quite a rare thing now. 

    We have also been spoilt by some astonishing charts over the past 3 days and trying to compare anything to them is pretty useless some of the stuff churned out was once in 100 year stuff that has such a low chance of verifying. 

    I woukd urge massive caution anything past Sunday at the moment because of how dynamic and also the mechanics in place driving the current weather pattern. 

    Also worth noting re any snow fall we need the high RES models to be in touch and we won't know that till T24-36 and even then we get it massively wrong 

    Edited by Surrey
    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    3 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

    Just to point out that ICON and GEM are still looking great, and the GEM has been outperforming the GFS lately.

     

    icon-0-144.png

    icon-0-168 (1).png

    gem-0-144.png

    gem-0-168 (1).png

    And add to this the GEFS by mid next week also look better than the Op, many still have that strong flow dragging in some serious amounts of snow.

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
    8 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

    Still some variations on a theme by the models this morning, but for sheer entertainment value I pick:

    the GEM 850s at +186h:

    image.thumb.png.8c31a996c583cf33df2d7ffa88543d72.png.   You won't see this again for a few years....

    how about the GFS 500s at +336h....

    image.thumb.png.83faa4935f6af4ead5beb4f3ce468126.png   Is the vortex paying us a visit?  Get the tea and biscuits ready....

    the ECM still determined to ruin the party:

    image.thumb.gif.13c492b77c071f87f5843e11a3a3a795.gif

    But here comes the cavalry - the UKMO comes to the rescue....

    image.thumb.gif.cc745e7358ba90148c7da1cdccf4f6ee.gif

    Still on track for the coldest start to March for many a year!

     

    ECM 144 to168 looks wrong the way it moves the Hp cell  almost 180 degrees to the NW just looks wrong. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)

    Ensembles for London marginally less jaw dropping but frankly still pretty incredible. ECM and GFS might have made us pause for thought this morning but hiccups are best cured by a short sharp shock and we’ve definitely got a cold one of those coming :good:

     

     

    F548D4CC-4BDE-4E4A-B3A6-AEB111455500.thumb.png.21b27b33bb7a88671ad1132d895dda73.png

     

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East

    I’m struck by how many people on here are clairvoyant , their powers seem to increase after the T144 hour mark ! 

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    1 minute ago, Raythan said:

    I’m struck by how many people on here are clairvoyant , their powers seem to increase after the T144 hour mark ! 

    Oh yes, with the amount of people here who can make guaranteed forecasts beyond the reliable its a wonder there is any uncertainty in predicting the weather at all. Every major meteorological agency across the world should just post here whenever they have jobs going.

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
    40 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    It was there if you wanted to see it jimmy - the ec op is a more extreme version but it’s out of the far less convective  snowy cluster. This op gives us around 36 hours of convective potential but heights are higher as is slp so it’s simply not good enough for widespread snowcover if you compare with the previous runs. Working on the basis that we have seen two good ec ops followed by one meh run, we’ll be back in the game come tonight on this model. However, the ukmo day 6 is headed in a similar direction (though the upper ridge slightly better aligned). More runs needed and ed’s salt deposit losing some of its value! 

    all based on ec output I should add !

    54B9635C-85F6-4AB9-9B04-EF46B35C7E0C.thumb.jpeg.4ab1ac06f51399404c1c9a237fac1cea.jpeg

    as for the ecm following the gfs @frosty ground...... really? you  think they are alike?

     

    Double take at this bit Blue. The big three all banging the drum for an inflated high in the transition to retrogression would be a concern. Is that a fair interpretation?

    Edited by supernova
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
    9 minutes ago, supernova said:

    Ensembles for London marginally less jaw dropping but frankly still pretty incredible. ECM and GFS might have made us pause for thought this morning but hiccups are best cured by a short sharp shock and we’ve definitely got a cold one of those coming :good:

     

     

    F548D4CC-4BDE-4E4A-B3A6-AEB111455500.thumb.png.21b27b33bb7a88671ad1132d895dda73.png

     

    Really?

    The majority below -10c for 5/6 days

    Edited by snowblizzard
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
    30 minutes ago, Surrey said:

    I get that bit, but we shouldn't get to hung up on it, the GFS had a slight wobble yesterday and we went into meltdown. 

    The other issue is we are now looking east for our weather as opposed to the west. This is totally different and quite a rare thing now. 

    We have also been spoilt by some astonishing charts over the past 3 days and trying to compare anything to them is pretty useless some of the stuff churned out was once in 100 year stuff that has such a low chance of verifying. 

    I woukd urge massive caution anything past Sunday at the moment because of how dynamic and also the mechanics in place driving the current weather pattern. 

    Also worth noting re any snow fall we need the high RES models to be in touch and we won't know that till T24-36 and even then we get it massively wrong 

    Oh indeed. A balanced reasonable post to read thank you thank you thank u u 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
    1 minute ago, snowblizzard said:

    Really?

    The majority below -10c for 5/6 days

    Not sure I understand. Was saying how incredible they were, if only fractionally less spectacular than yesterday?

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Yarm , Middlesbrough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Yarm , Middlesbrough

    I am from the north east of England and GFS to me is a bit disappointing this morning , i hope this is not the start of a trend to have the high further south , yes its cold but for us in north of uk not fantastic cold  like the early models were suggesting 

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
    3 minutes ago, supernova said:

    Not sure I understand. Was saying how incredible they were, if only fractionally less spectacular than yesterday?

    Well, I think there was much more scatter after 2/3 March in yesterdays, todays look generally lower and more tightly grouped - improvement!

    Edited by snowblizzard
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

     

    6 minutes ago, supernova said:

    Double take at this bit Blue. The big three all banging the drum for an inflated high in the transition to retrogression would be a concern. Is that a fair interpretation?

    The issue here is the likely retrogression from Scandi to greeny ridge and how the behaviour the moving vortex the interacts with this

    the easterly now pretty much agreed to arrive by Monday morning by how long for and what depth of cold/convection ???

    the ecm clusters yesterday grew the route of retrogression closer to the Monday 00z op run which depressed the mood in here for a couple hours. With the op repeating it today, you would expect the mean to begin responding to this route. That largest cluster from yesterday had the upper ridge much too close to w Scotland to allow the type of continental flow we seek. 

    New eps dribbling out now 

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Feels bitter already lol,at least models agree the sub zero air arriving Monday after that it’s still open to lots of uncertainty,i very much doubt the ECM Op has a handle on things later on,it’s been junk most the winter

    Was it not showing UK in mild SW winds when the other models were showing the start of the Easterly trend in their later output a week or so back I seem to recall:gathering:

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wellington, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Wellington, Somerset
    1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

    I bet all those who were berating Liam Dutton yesterday are regretting their comments yesterday. Looks like he could be correct. 

    We were not berating him, simply concern raised at his use of an unreliable snow graphic to show his point on the 12z ECM. His overall point however of suggesting people to calm a little in regards to snow is valid, shown by a slight wobble from GFS & ECM this morning. I do believe,  however, that the models are struggling somewhat with the regression signal & how it interacts with the western advection of the cold air. ECM now has heights to high which somewhat cuts of the feed, a pattern it keeps intermittently attempting. Hence, 144hr + to be viewed with even more caution than normal until ECM ensembles start to settle a little. 

    Bluearmy suggesting the same above. 

    Edited by MattTarrant
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow and thunderstorms :)
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl
    9 minutes ago, Doctor96 said:

    I am from the north east of England and GFS to me is a bit disappointing this morning , i hope this is not the start of a trend to have the high further south , yes its cold but for us in north of uk not fantastic cold  like the early models were suggesting 

    You  related?? :friends:

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex

    Been abit worried that the models seem to be pushing the real cold back by a day, seems like it's arriving on Monday now. From this mornings runs that seems to be the favoured day compared to recently when Saturday night/Sunday was forecasted. Is this something to worry about or is this the models just getting to grips with exactly where the high pressure will set up? 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

    Thank you!

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

      UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2021-05-13 09:41:14 Valid: 13/05/2021 0600 - 14/05/2021 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - WEDS 13TH MAY 2021 Click here for the full forecast

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather 1

      Cool & showery theme to continue for the foreseeable as low pressure sticks close by

      Showers or longer spells of rain to end the week and through the weekend. Some sunny spells too, but staying on the cool side, with temperatures generally remaining below average. Staying unsettled next week too. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      Weekend plans: Day trips and evenings out

      Little change by this weekend with further heavy showers. There will be some warm sunshine in between but temperatures remain in the teens with more of a breeze. Still cool for sitting out. Read more here

      Jo Farrow
      Jo Farrow
      Latest weather updates from Netweather
    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...