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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
    2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

    ECM1-144.GIF?21-12

    People will but you can't grumble at this...........can you?

    ECM0-144.GIF?21-12

     

    Reload after reload fantastic chart from ECM

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    Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

    Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

    Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    17 minutes ago, KTtom said:

    Let' be honest, the bitterly cold air is pretty much nailed on next week. Small variations thou in the runs seems to move the emphasis of snow distribution from the south east tot more northern areas...might not go down to well bet that' the way I see it as an overall picture. Good to see a strong scandi high forecast for the following week to keep the cold locked in and as said above further snow moving in from the north east.

    Let's be honest, the bitterly cold air is pretty much nailed on next week. Small variations thou in the runs show that trying to workout the best place for snow is pointless at this time I would suggest. 

    IMG_0608.PNG

    IMG_0609.PNG

    Edited by That ECM
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    7 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

    We have what I call the "dreaded" one cluster after D11 - which I always translate as "we don't have a clue!"

    I was very nervous that the fastest growing eps cluster from yesterday was going to spoil my breakfast and it most certainly has. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

    ECM at 168hrs is cold and frosty.

    Not what I expected with the bitter uppers not really getting across Ireland...starting to look a lot drier at this time frame anyway 

    At 192hrs the cold is getting very diluted....A world away from the uppers we saw 2 days ago

    Edited by January Snowstorm
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    Posted
  • Location: Welling/ Barbican by day
  • Location: Welling/ Barbican by day
    3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    I was very nervous that the fastest growing eps cluster from yesterday was going to spoil my breakfast and it most certainly has. 

    Come on blue. You have to explain 

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    1 minute ago, Banbury said:

    There will be moans about this but its still very cold

    ECM1-168.GIF?21-12

    ECM0-168.GIF?21-12

    Another variation of what could happen in 7 days time

    Absolutely true Marcus - very cold but sadly most on here aren’t looking for just the cold. We still have the shortwave dropping southwest next Tuesday but that’s a long way out of a small feature (though all the models now pick it up)

    as a few have been cautioning, only the cold has been guaranteed for next week, nothing else 

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
    2 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:

    Come on blue. You have to explain 

    Too right, while we arn't seeing the -15-16 850's it's still showing a notable cold spell for this time of year.

    Edited by SteveB
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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
    Just now, frosty ground said:

    Think the ECM is worse not as cold with a much larger mild sector from the north.

     

    I'm not that worried really, D8 is a lifetime away and will differ again this evening 

    D9

    ECH1-216.GIF?21-12

    Attack from the NE 

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
    1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

    Think the ECM is worse not as cold with a much larger mild sector from the north.

     

    Would hardly call it a mild sector!! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh

    Lets not mince words, compared to recent charts the ECM is a real disappointment unless you want cold, clear and icy. Time to change though

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
    2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    I bet all those who were berating Liam Dutton yesterday are regretting their comments yesterday. Looks like he could be correct. 

    Just thinking the same regarding the BBC...dry and cold....ecm has a north westerly flow by the end of next week....nothing could have been more unlikely this time yesterday?!

     

    ECMOPEU00_216_1-2.png

    Edited by KTtom
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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    6 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

    Would hardly call it a mild sector!! 

    Developing low moving south has a mild sector the air is around -5 but it is there.

    By day 10 the cold should be pulled in again for the NE.

    A variation on the position of the high which has yet to be resolved

    Edited by frosty ground
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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    ECM is a short term disappointment but looks good again at 216, however two things.  The evolution between 144 and 168 doesn't look right to me, the cold is suddenly and dramatically put in reverse.  Secondly, the overnight Met update does correlate with what the UKMO is showing (which is outstanding). 

    Remember toys in prams, think of the mods, and this isn't nailed yet.

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    2 minutes ago, KTtom said:

    Just thinking the same regarding the BBC...dry and cold....ecm has a north westerly flow by the end of next week....nothing could have been more unlikely this time yesterday?!

     

    ECMOPEU00_216_1-2.png

    For a quick comparisons that looks a bit January 2010 to me. Might not be as cold duse to the time of year.

    The north westerly is just a temporary flow as well.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    14 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:

    Come on blue. You have to explain 

    It was there if you wanted to see it jimmy - the ec op is a more extreme version but it’s out of the far less convective  snowy cluster. This op gives us around 36 hours of convective potential but heights are higher as is slp so it’s simply not good enough for widespread snowcover if you compare with the previous runs. Working on the basis that we have seen two good ec ops followed by one meh run, we’ll be back in the game come tonight on this model. However, the ukmo day 6 is headed in a similar direction (though the upper ridge slightly better aligned). More runs needed and ed’s salt deposit losing some of its value! 

    all based on ec output I should add !

    54B9635C-85F6-4AB9-9B04-EF46B35C7E0C.thumb.jpeg.4ab1ac06f51399404c1c9a237fac1cea.jpeg

    as for the ecm following the gfs @frosty ground...... really? you  think they are alike?

     

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
    1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

    For a quick comparisons that looks a bit January 2010 to me. Might not be as cold duse to the time of year.

    The north westerly is just a temporary flow as well.

    Temporary it was but D10 

    ECH1-240.GIF?21-12

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

    Looks like we’re getting to a decent agreement on how and when the coldest conditions reach us. Everything beyond that is up in the air, with the models in disagreement, which is exactly what you’d expect. Nothing is looking remotely mild anyway. Won’t stop some from overreacting to any charts that aren’t stellar for cold and snow, but hey ho!

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Why are we looking so far ahead? Some of the south and across the east and infact west have woken up to frost, looks cold now from today with an easterly wind setting up further south, looking past Sunday currently is pointless. 

    With such variety in the output this morning it goes to show how useless we are at trying to forcast anything past day 3.

     

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

    Thank you!

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