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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


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Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

The real cold reaching the UK early Monday on the GFS. So we’re now only 5 days away.

Yes and better still UKMO is almost a day earlier and colder through the same timeframes this morning so still very much on track for 25th/26th as per the last couple of days.

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Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Yes and better still UKMO is almost a day earlier and colder through the same timeframes this morning so still very much on track for 25th/26th as per the last couple of days.

GFS has a hell of a lot of cold upstream by 156 behind that disturbance about to run through UK

gfsnh-1-156.png

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5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

GFS has a hell of a lot of cold upstream by 156 behind that disturbance about to run through UK

gfsnh-1-156.png

It is cold for sure but again the high is too far South for me, much further South than UKMO. Want those blues and purples over us not the greens and oranges. Sorry for getting technical again. :D

gfsnh-0-168.png

At least it isn't going to have the mental breakdown of the 18z and sink the high.

Edited by Mucka
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Just now, Mucka said:

It is cold for sure but again the high is too far South for me, much further South than UKMO. Want those blues and purples over us not the greens and oranges. Sorry for getting technical again. :D

gfsnh-0-168.png

Yeah GFS going down a different route again, dropping a trough down from the N into the troughing spreading W across Europe, cutting off the coldest flow for us for a while.

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Hmm. Rather frustrating run from the GFS, and very different to the 18z. The high stubbornly refusing to move away to the NW and the easterly flow quickly being cut off as it turns more northerly. A new variation.

Although it does look good for far eastern and south eastern parts.

Edited by MattStoke
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1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Hmm. Rather frustrating run from the GFS, and very different to the 18z. The high stubbornly refusing to move away to the NW and the easterly flow quickly being cut off as it turns more northerly. A new variation.

Frustrating indeed...but the UKMO and GEM differ from it so let's see what ECM has to say later.

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1 minute ago, Nick L said:

Might be a new variation but it's simply another flavour of wintry! 

Indeed. Some fun before the easterly feed gets cut off. Quite widespread snow for central and eastern parts for a time. As per this image.

Looks like a very different evolution to previous runs and other model output. Also doesn’t match the MO forecasts. Wouldn’t be surprised if it’s out of kilter with it’s ensembles.

F38FB7F1-2A11-474B-9009-F1A993D3B8B6.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, Nick L said:

The fact it has completely changed from the previous run means it should be met with scepticism. 

TBH Nick, if it had been anything like 18z I would of been far more sceptical! :hi:

 

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That my friends, is a stunning chart, not far from perfectly placed;

5a8cf85da0b46_UN144-21(1).thumb.gif.606b6ad1b20694bae6670cc2840f92fd.gif

UN144-7.thumb.gif.d0e1537d66bf0087bc1a8f4b9e69f8ef.gif

I always view this model first due to past experience with easterly's etc, more than happy to see that this morning.  

Snow showers for a good portion of England & Wales there, obviously focused more on eastern districts.

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Inclined not to pay much attention to that GFS update as it is so different to all the other output so far. Possibly a new trend but you’d want to see more runs go that way first. I’d be surprised if it was right. However, it’s still cold with plenty of snow potential anyway. I doubt few would be complaining if it was right!

Edited by MattStoke
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The GFS continues to try and find that solution which keeps the cold pushing into the UK from first the east and then the north. This time it appears to be too fast in turning the flow northerly as we see an area of low pressure run over the high and slip south through Norway.

gfsnh-0-144.png   gfsnh-0-168.png

Neither the UKMO or GEM entertain this idea, both pretty similar with the easterly likely to last for longer before we see the high retrogress into week 2. The GEM very much on the path of the ECM from yesterday afternoon. Worth noting that the UKMO has a snow event at day 6 as that shallow wave moves west from Scandinavia, the GEM has this as well now.

UW144-21.GIF?21-05

kink east of Scotland here

gem-0-144.png?00

GEM has a similar position. 

I see increasing confidence in the cold arriving at some point during Monday with a band of snow moving west on Tuesday in association with that shallow low. Happy that it is the GFS which has thrown the odd solution again as this is the model which is struggling for consistency regarding the shape of the high and how the cold pool spreads westwards in the 4-6 day range. The others seem a lot more consistent in regards to how this pans out. Oddly enough the control run seems a lot more consistent than the operational at the moment.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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GFS is still v good IMO, it brings snow across the UK for the start of March from the NE, there are quite a few of its perts doing the same thing ........a new wintry trend? 

Edited by Banbury
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1 hour ago, Mucka said:

Canadian PV gets nuked?

gfsnh-0-60.pnggfsnh-0-240.png

GFS reserves the better eye candy for later but we have seen some stunning winter charts again this morning.

 

1 hour ago, Mucka said:

Canadian PV gets nuked?

gfsnh-0-60.pnggfsnh-0-240.png

GFS reserves the better eye candy for later but we have seen some stunning winter charts again this morning.

There was a second smaller SSW which helped bring down that beast, apparently the first one was not enough, transferring energy eastwards, as you would expect, the second warming is currently or has just finished happening which is 2 of 3, the third being expected at the end of March, i did mention it but to no attention as everyone was ramping yesterday!?,if what the models have shown over the past few runs, the position of a high, short waves, along with lots of positives, it could be down to the brief further change in the strat,again,affecting models further for a few runs so… it will be getting cold, and it will have snow potential, but they need to be in the t96 t72 for being 100%, or near enough, on more details of where when how and what. Food for thought, think I like GEM this morning, S’ely with deep cold uppers penetrating central southern England, aswell as the whole country unlike other runs where the high gets a bit to nosey. This shows that there is still variation even now. I’m not saying it’s incorrec, but as we all know things change, even when it’s a trend. Constant snow showers and frigid, all the way to the end of the run, this is still going to be special !

DDA9788F-70AD-4D63-8B63-97658CCC2D57.png

55C0DF64-CFF1-4A75-84EC-45BBCB1E26EB.png

138B1664-281E-4582-AAA5-F86E15823C18.png

AC559E36-5FA8-4009-91DA-E549AE4D4CCA.png

35E49362-AFC3-4541-8C4A-4A5E8693D632.png

ABD86D8D-D8B3-4AF9-8B87-E2B55D2B650E.png

Edited by Justin123
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27 minutes ago, Banbury said:

GFS is still v good IMO, it brings snow across the UK for the start of March from the NE, there are quite a few of its perts doing the same thing ........a new wintry trend? 

Yes something the GFS picked up on a few days ago, With High Pressure moving West over Greenland bringing a  cold N/Ely flow. Here's Mondays 00z chart against today's. Very wintry charts again this morning..

viewimage-20.thumb.png.003988d81eb83b62f73e15e389b4a55b.pngviewimage-23.thumb.png.01a228d9c9720953d715d21eeb8090b9.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Let' be honest, the bitterly cold air is pretty much nailed on next week. Small variations thou in the runs seems to move the emphasis of snow distribution from the south east tot more northern areas...might not go down to well bet that' the way I see it as an overall picture. Good to see a strong scandi high forecast for the following week to keep the cold locked in and as said above further snow moving in from the north east.

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