Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Recommended Posts

Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
  • Replies 4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    Just now, Nick L said:

    Such is the depth of the initial cold, even for most areas in the south any precip will still be as snow on that out to the end of the week.

    Yes, one of those situations where it will snow hard with uppers of -2c (as shown on the precip charts). 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
    Just now, Astral Goat Juice said:

    Ah well. Better pack away the snowboard, -7 uppers in my location. Looks bad for the South though. 

    I'm also in the north and would be in -3 uppers, which is a tad more concerning.

    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    2 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

    Ah well. Better pack away the snowboard, -7 uppers in my location. Looks bad for the South though. 

    Don't bet on it. Anywhere in that green zone its snowing like crazy. Also comes back south. IMBY at this point its been snowing for days!

    All just for fun though as it will change.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham

    The cold never really leaves the North! Because the direction is South Easterly late on even with moderate uppers that will all be as snow and a low pressure heading North incredible!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock

     I mean this unreal at 192 everyone will be digging themselves.out

    gfs-0-186.png?18

    those in the know can you explain why thou we are not seeing more go under block into the med at earlier timeframe?

     the low to west of Spain looks like it wants to disrupt at 162 but doesn't really and then attacks from south bringing warm uppers from med on eastern flank before the heading south east finally at 252,

     

    gfs-0-162.png?18 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield - 228m/748ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Sheffield - 228m/748ft ASL

     

    1 minute ago, Jason M said:

    Yes, one of those situations where it will snow hard with uppers of -2c (as shown on the precip charts). 

    I seem to repeat this every year when people are concerned about snow potential when milder uppers mix with continental air; there's no need to worry!  Easterly air is drier, and therefore you don't need the -5/-6c uppers required for snowfall from PM air.  In any case, this is really just splitting hairs at post t+200, as the scenario will likely be very different.  In the meantime, excellent output!

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    8 minutes ago, Nick L said:

    Such is the depth of the initial cold, even for most areas in the south any precip will still be as snow on that out to the end of the week.

    Given we have uppers above 0C, got to be in with a chance of a freezing rain event around 228hrs on the 18z GFS. Still got very cold surface layer cold as evidenced by having still sub zero dew points at 231 as well...

    As you say, taking a very close look at the pattern, its actually still a snow event for most despite a warmer layer around 850hpa...

    Edited by kold weather
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

    The posts about it being delayed are really becoming irritating. The real cold has always been expected to arrive between late Sunday and Monday. You expect the output to be going back and forth on the exact timing. It is not been put further and further back. Some runs have brought it forward.

    This run is just another variation on the general theme of deep cold with potential for snow. People need to stop fretting about specific detail. The models will be appalling with detail at this range. It’s the general theme that matters.

    As for the GFS trying to bring in milder air. I don’t buy it. Everything looks perfect for a prolonged cold spell. Plus, we know the GFS almost always breaks down cold spells too quickly.

    • Like 4
    • Thanks 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    Just now, MattStoke said:

    The posts about it being delayed are really becoming irritating. The real cold has always been expected to arrive between late Sunday and Monday. You expect the output to be going back and forth on the exact timing. It is not been put further and further back. Some runs have brought it forward.

    This run is just another variation on the general theme of deep cold with potential for snow. People need to stop fretting about specific detail. The models will be appalling with detail at this range. It’s the general theme that matters.

    As for the GFS trying to bring in milder air. I don’t buy it. Everything looks perfect for a prolonged cold spell. Plus, we know the GFS almost always breaks down cold spells too quickly.

    When this spell does break down it probably will be from the south rather than the west. It may well be too quick bringing warmer air up from the south but the end game may look something like this (whether that be in 1 week or 3weeks time).

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)

    I don't get all this delay talk!  The coldest uppers have been modelled to arrive late Sunday or early Monday for days.  Some runs have had this slightly earlier and some slightly later.

    People are so jumpy tonight!  We are then fretting about a bit of milder air getting into the South at 200 hours plus despite not believing the cold is actually going to arrive at just 100 hours.

    What a mental hobby this is!  :rofl:

    The pub run is just a variation of a theme with the theme being a rearrangement of these words.....

    Easterly Cold Snowy Stupendously

    Edited by Kentish Snowman
    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Mild winters, wet & windy summers
  • Location: Hampshire

    gfs-0-162.png?18

    I have a feeling that future runs will show the high further south which will water down the easterlies.  My gut feeling is that the coldest weather will head further south into France and Spain.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    There is no way this 18z FI will verify for several reasons which I just can't be bothered to get into, but basically if we get the sort of retrogession seen out to 168 there is no way it will sink back S/SE in FI as with this run.

    18z FI is a bit of a joke actually but worth noting there is no actual breakdown.

    In actuality the Atlantic would disrupt SE far more readily, the polar trough drop much more sharply, the high be further West through FI and the Atlantic undercut more effectively.

     

     

     

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
    21 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

    The GFS in week 2 still differing from the ECM in relation to turning the flow more easterly as we quickly lose the high over Scandinavia and replace it with a deep trough. This time the GFS looks to bring a front in from the south though the cold arctic air is beginning to surge back down through Western Russia/Finland to re-enforce the cold already in place over Europe. No point going further than this as obviously we have differing views in regard to the speed of the retrogression signal.

    gfsnh-0-210.png?18   Vs   ECH1-216.GIF?20-0

     

    As for the speed of the cold air arriving, the ECM has been solid at Monday, the GFS has trended towards the ECM in that regard whilst the UKMO is still quicker than both of these. Overall the landing date has always been generally signposted for around Monday.

    GFS loves a bit of an Atlantic party though, esp at low-res and even with that NWP. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Another variation but the trend is there. Blocking right until the end. The finer details yet to be decided....

    • Like 7
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

    Thank you!

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...