Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Recommended Posts

Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
  • Replies 4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    The GFS in week 2 still differing from the ECM in relation to turning the flow more easterly as we quickly lose the high over Scandinavia and replace it with a deep trough. This time the GFS looks to bring a front in from the south though the cold arctic air is beginning to surge back down through Western Russia/Finland to re-enforce the cold already in place over Europe. No point going further than this as obviously we have differing views in regard to the speed of the retrogression signal.

    gfsnh-0-210.png?18   Vs   ECH1-216.GIF?20-0

     

    As for the speed of the cold air arriving, the ECM has been solid at Monday, the GFS has trended towards the ECM in that regard whilst the UKMO is still quicker than both of these. Overall the landing date has always been generally signposted for around Monday.

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
    4 minutes ago, Big Snow said:

    I am also getting annoyed by the delay - don't get me wrong, it looks sensational...but I'm becoming more of a nervous wreck with each run!

    You and me too! First it was Saturday, then Sunday, then Monday, Now Tuesday? ;) I'll pencil in 2019 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
    1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

    Jeez.....there is no problem. I was merely pointing out that today the cold is more delayed on this run compared to the same run yesterday.

    I'm not bigging up mild weather or claiming this ain't going to happen just pointing out a fact.

    Really is like swimming in a pool of piranahs in here sometimes!

    Don't go swimming then. Surely there's only minor details in an otherwise fantastic setup. Sit back and enjoy what's unfolding in front of us. Hopefully we'll all be talking about this cold spell for years to come

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Is it getting bit concerning that it seems to keep being pushed back? The REAL beast seems to stay at day 7 onwards which concerns me a little...

    Perhaps I'm just worrying to much.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Northampton (90m ASL)
  • Location: Northampton (90m ASL)

    Relieved to see the GFS quickly ditch the 12z idea of the high sitting much closer to the UK. This evolution is very nice looking from the 18z, and not too dissimilar to the ECM. Both incredibly cold and snowy with no obvious end in sight.

    At times these past few days it's felt like the models are competing with one another at the moment to show us coldies the nicest looking charts - never in my time on Netweather have I experienced that before, and I'm not complaining!

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
    5 minutes ago, Big Snow said:

    I am also getting annoyed by the delay - don't get me wrong, it looks sensational...but I'm becoming more of a nervous wreck with each run!

    There is no delay!  Set yourself a target of Monday 6pm and I would be amazed if there are any runs going forward that do not have at least -10s over the majority of the UK by then.

    If there are and it becomes a trend then Panic!  :D

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
    12 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

     

    There is a front in there crossing from east to west bringing heavy snow across the northern half of the UK in particular and that cold exiting Scandinavia is simply outrageous.

    Is that the same feature as the 120h fax is showing or is that a separate one?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Probably going to see a bit of a split in FI with the upper high keeping the north underneath the mean easterly flow, the south gets into the milder SSE airflow as the Atlantic takes over.

    Anyway I think the GFS is probably overdoing the breakdown of the cold spell this run and is doing the classic GFS set-up of lowering heights in the Atlantic quickly.

    Fairly sure this will be on the mild side of the ensembles.

    Edited by kold weather
    • Thanks 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
    3 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

    Mild making inroads a lot earlier in this run at T+204? Short sharp shock rather than prolonged spell?

    No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

    Yes only - 14 instead of - 15 very mild?

    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Milder air coming in at 216 with a bonkers looking chart....which no doubt will look different again tomorrow.

    gfsnh-0-216.png?18

    Looking pretty solid up to 168 with anything after, good or bad, just for entertainment value!

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
    1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:

    This run very quickly going from epic to a bust.

    No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

    No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

    at 222hrs, I think I'll sleep well. Chill mate, anything past 120 take with a huge skip of salt infact don't do that as you'll need it.

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
    1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:

    This run very quickly going from epic to a bust. Seems to be pushing the cold air out north.

    No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

    No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

    I think a middle ground between the 12z gfs and 18z will be more the outcome tbh it’s just a variation on a theme but all good ?

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

    This is a very IMBY run.

    Better for the north, not as good down south. 

    Just another variation on what seems an almost inevitable very cold/severe cold spell starting Sunday night.

     

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

    Future runs could easily have the cold coming in quicker, all depends if the flow gets slacker or not really and of course initial positioning of the cold thrust.

    For me I'll be happy aslong as we don't see any trends of the cold heading into France and Spain, the cold is coming, just how cold it will get and how unstable the air gets are the big questions at the moment. 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
    1 minute ago, snowice said:

    Yes only - 14 instead of - 15 very mild?

    Unfortunately the mild air makes much more of an in-road in the unluckiest chart for coldies you could imagine. Positive uppers swinging into the south of England.

    No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
    1 minute ago, ukpaul said:

    Is that the same feature as the 120h fax is showing or is that a separate one?

    Different, the FAX just shows the potential for showers to be pushing westwards towards NE England and Scotland which makes sense given a cold feed from the Baltic sea which gives ample room to develop showers. Oddly enough that snow actually comes from a shallow low which develops close to Norway early on which loops around then heads west as the cold air marches east. A great way to see it is to look on the precipitation charts where you can clearly see the organised area of snow do a tour of Scandinavia before rushing towards Scotland.

    tempresult_jad0.gif

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
    1 minute ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

    Wait, What?

    There's a whole lot more to England than the South coast you know. The majority of the country, especially US northerners are sat in bitter air and snow.

    Not by early March. As said above no doubt it'll be different tomorrow.

    No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire

    Such is the depth of the initial cold, even for most areas in the south any precip will still be as snow on that out to the end of the week.

    • Like 4
    • Thanks 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

    Don’t shoot me down as I am a real amateur just an enthusiast but it does seem like the real cold blast is getting delayed every day so not really getting closer as such (the real cold that is) the longer it takes to get here the shorter it will be as the breakdown etc will not get further away so will end up been just a blast. Hope I’m very wrong but it’s a feeling that I have tbh

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Location: Godalming

    Ironically this run favours the north, awaiting the ensembles but i would hazard a guess that we are going to meet in the middle ground here and we will all see something from this, but more runs are needed this is not a 2010 repeat either way fascinating to follow

    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

    Thank you!

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...