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Paul

Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:

Is there a way of predicting weather snow will be dry or wet from the current model output?

It would be dry with uppers that low and low dew points thanks to the continental flow.

Pure powder.

Edited by MattStoke

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2 minutes ago, IPredictASnowStorm said:

I'm wanting that low to come up on Wednesday as that will give us more snow than this rubbish easterly :cc_confused:

Are you tripping or something ? :D

Why do you need the grief of worrying if the low will get too far north turning any snow to rain if you can get troughs and shortwaves moving west in the flow .

 

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4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Can we get a Nick S style Nick L doodle then :D pretty please 

This might be quite accurate

Image result for white

This assumes it will be so cold the seas will freeze over and having lying snow on top. :rofl:

Given the Euros/JMA and GEM which are tending to show a much larger cold pool at day 6/7, I wonder whether the GFS has this correct perhaps and hence the worries regading its output could be dismissed purely on the grounds that the depth of cold is insufficient compared to what will really happen. 

Plenty of interest, just ride the Siberian cold train and wait to see what carnage will be produced next week.

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15 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Another great day of model output with no concerns from me with what is shown.

2 points

First is that the worst model output that we have seen today and the last few days is far better than the best output that we have seen for many a year. So don't be concerned with operational variations.

The second is that normally any shortwaves scuppers any cold spell, but in this case I welcome shortwaves because once that cold air is embedded ( and movement will always be west of the general pattern), then we have shortwave snow making machines on our hands. The more shortwaves the better as far as I am concerned because the large Greenland block will keep us embedded in deep cold....

Just enjoy the output and whatever it brings.

Totally agree with this, I think there are still a couple of small points to watch for (especially regarding a shortwave in the atlantic that may jut northwards around 96hrs, if we are real unlucky it could disconect the upper high and leave us with a cold UK high, a couple of GFS go for that and couple actually do develop that synoptic.)

As you say, once the cold flow is in, shortwaves become a great way of developing some decent snowfall for many. I have a sneaky feeling several will form in this flow, I also have a gut feeling we may see a decent LP at some point, think maybe 5-10mbs lower than the 12z ECM in that easterly airflow, as happened in Feb 91+09.

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1 minute ago, Nick L said:

I'll add to this, it will all depend on what the ratio of liquid water to snow ratio these maps are using too. Dry snow will put down about 3 times more than wet snow for the same equivalent of water.

I just got off the phone to my mate "Charlie".....told him that a netweather boffin just said there'll be lots of white powder on the ground by this time next week....Think he's just had a heart attack !!....................don't worry, I'm fetching my coat.....lol

 

and just to keep things relatively on topic, another splendid day of outputs and model watching for those of a cold persuasion.....variations on a theme, but the theme is very cold and potentially very snowy, so nothing has changed!

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4 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Snow potential coming into range of the UKV now, with snow showers starting to move into northeast England on Sunday afternoon.

That must mean the ukv shows the colder air further west than the ecm on sunday and agrees with the ukmo instead🤔!!

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11 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I wish people would stop posting these inaccurate charts, they're utter nonsense. I know they're the only freely available EC snow depths but they're utter tosh.

Nick are any of their precipitation charts remotely like the official ones you see? Like the "accumulated precipitation" chart? Which would appear to hammer the east coast?

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1 hour ago, Nick L said:

I wish you guys could see the precip charts on the EC. Serious disruption Tues and Wed on this run across swathes of the country.

Yes, but lady on the lunch time BBC forecast said next week is looking "dry" !! :drunk-emoji: hopefully she sobers up before tomorrows shift!

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UKMO extended picking up an easterly with precipitation really getting going for eastern Scotland and down to NE England

ukm2.2018022712_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.144106ede9137979a8d97a8fe35b6fbe.png

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16 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I wish people would stop posting these inaccurate charts, they're utter nonsense. I know they're the only freely available EC snow depths but they're utter tosh.

As will have been said to you on many occasions I'm sure. Nick, we've shown you ours now you show us yours:D

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15 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I wish people would stop posting these inaccurate charts, they're utter nonsense. I know they're the only freely available EC snow depths but they're utter tosh.

I fixed the snow chart. Can everyone stop posting pointless accumulation maps now please.

462B18C5-5E45-4E3D-B76F-77EC7002AB07.thumb.jpeg.ee63a715f8287a6e7885185e2c12611a.jpeg

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Just now, That ECM said:

As will have been said to you on many occasions I'm sure. Nick, we've shown you ours now you show us yours:D

I'd rather not get into trouble at work I'm afraid!

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4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended picking up an easterly with precipitation really getting going for eastern Scotland and down to NE England

ukm2.2018022712_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.144106ede9137979a8d97a8fe35b6fbe.png

And possibly the se but we're not allowed to see that bit(much to the north members delight:D)

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While it's quiet..with only 406 members viewing:D

Here is some beasts from the east from the GEFS 12z:cold-emoji:❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

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14_192_850tmp.png

15_192_850tmp.png

17_192_850tmp.png

19_192_850tmp.png

20_192_850tmp.png

21_192_850tmp.png

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2 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I'd rather not get into trouble at work I'm afraid!

No worries, we wouldn't want that.......tell you what, let's play a game.....I start counting 1, 2, 3 up to 100 and when I guess the right number of cm's, just say "STOP" :wink:

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The ECM ensemble mean looks almost a carbon copy of the UKMO op run at T144 hrs.

No signs of that shortwave to the nw but the higher resolution of the op might be a better guide at this range.

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Well my simplistic UK forecast on the forthcoming brutal cold would be.....

gfsnh-1-162.thumb.png.65f27b2431061a2151ee88d712e5cd5e.png

Cloudy with the chance of Penguins.

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5 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Speaking of dew points anyone have an example of how low they go next week??

You can get them via the GFS 0.25 here, -13 or so appears to be the lowest. I would say that those on ECM would be lower than that, given the colder upper air.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/point-de-rosee/3h.htm

Edited by ukpaul

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ECM mean going from the 26th to 28th with the 850's steady at -13 in London by early March we are barely above -10 in London

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.286229a1333ceed16b347c6b9b7bc3f4.png

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Just comparing ECM 12z and GFS 12z, there looks to be a significant difference at around T192 where the ECM has pulled the High through towards Greenland, GFS much slower:

ECM1-192.GIF?20-0

gfs-0-192.png?12

As others have alluded to, and we saw from the later charts, this means in the case of ECM lower pressure and disturbances thereafter leading to potentially significant snow.  As ECM is the best performing model, I wonder if this slight potential change of direction might be repeated in future runs. Maybe something to look out for on the pub run!

Edited by Mike Poole

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