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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:

Thank you!

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Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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5 minutes ago, Bruegelian said:

Is there anything that could stop the block scooting off to Canada? As has been said, a few days ago it looked like it might settle around greenland.

Dont think so. It's headed that way come what may. But cold reload from the NE is clear on this chart from UKMO for longer term.

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

To keep it wall to wall cold we need pressure to remain high to the north just long enough to force the trough to the south through further east. A few days ago it looked likely - now less so. However fine lines here - we have all seen blocks do odd things, and speed of transition is key. Let's hope it drags its feet.

Edited by Catacol
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20 minutes ago, stokepa31 said:

sorry yes i meant east to west faster not east. DOH :)

Although we are getting easterly winds it’s probably clearer to talk about movement in a westwards direction (or eastwards) but, yes, your analysis is spot on!

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Afternoon folks

looking forward to cold week ahead and hopefully some snow. After looking at the latest GFS I think we can expect which path the low will take. Was hoping it would take a more northern France path but the models seemed to all be singing off the same hymn sheet. 

With low heights in the med I couldn't work out why the low was heading straight for Blighty. Checking then jet profile I found the answer. Still going to be cold for most but snow will be restricted to northern areas. Still time to change fingers crossed. Hope everyone is well 



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1 minute ago, ukpaul said:

Although we are getting easterly winds it’s probably clearer to talk about movement in a westwards direction (or eastwards) but, yes, your analysis is spot on!

Gotcha :) In my mind i shall call it the SSW champagne cork evolution. Just too much oomph to stop and linger a while. gotta love the power of nature. Really looking forward to the coming week and shall be grateful for whatever comes our way. Just goes to show how many ducks you need to get in a row for achieve the perfect coldie spell of weather. 

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36 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Eh? Met office 30 day update says cold for most well into March.

Not referencing the 30 dayer. Further cold is likely re further donwelling waves. but as per my post above, losing the deeply cold airmass woudl clearly be a blow for a  potential record breaking march spell  

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All those of you (including me obviously:D) hoping for a continuation of the cold will like some or all of these from the GEFS 6z!..can't wait for the snow to start..I've reserved a lamp post!:shok::cold:P20 will do nicely!


















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