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Paul

Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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From the nhp gfs 6Z is so close at the 168hr mark to keeping us in the real cold . second low is the ball breaker but jet is still on a southerly trip

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1 minute ago, Jayces said:

Great respect for @johnholmes unbiased views and his advice has always been to compare like for like not run by run so below we have yesterdays GFS 06z 144 Versus todays 120 so same time, same parameters etc and the cold air (850's) is further South on today's run. Okay, it's not a huge amount but for our small island it can make a massive difference for a lot of people.

gfs-1-144_vqt2.png

gfs-1-120_aem5.png

Hope I did this right.

Great post that indeed we should be comparing like for like runs. For my view I see the low slightly higher pressure and correcting South. Need to look over next few runs if this will continue. If it does then game on for he south 

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1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

I'm calling it based on what the models and ensembles have been consistently showing for 24-36 hours now, anything other than this is hopecasting.

Any other interpretation of the models other than yours is hopecasting?

Edited by Wardlegacy

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1 hour ago, AWD said:

Is it me or does the 0z Arpege have the iberian LP a lot further south compared to other model output for the same timeframe;

arpegeeur-0-96.thumb.png.10a4a2b41790d52b7fde85b08b34f19f.png o

Considering the arpege is a hires short range model could it really be that wrong!?? 

I also remember back in Dec during one of the cold spells where the big 3 models were showing the cold continuing, then the arpege came out showing it turning milder  and guess what, it turned out to be correct, knowing our  luck it won't be this time but the 12z runs could be very interesting. 

Edited by Smartie
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The reality here is at the end of the week we will be in march - it's not a month of perpetual winter but one of wild twists and turns

The low pressure brings the potential for a proper snow event on a nationwide basis 

 

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Sunday has a band of rain moving up from the southwest potential for this to turn to snow as it moves further north into the colder air

06_174_preciptype.thumb.png.a45110259e12da859b0621682a2a46b5.png06_174_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.801231b3c61dffe0dcfe681d1e9bb32d.png

06_177_preciptype.thumb.png.cbb9b5348cc67b1aabd7711bb0148ee9.png06_177_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.429ebd9cd071c9e3d03ced71a0c7d17b.png

06_180_preciptype.thumb.png.1f77b2f22fc3dd33979a1d9a0d3189e0.png06_180_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.3535533694660d3ca777de7cf26483e2.png

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I wasn't expecting models to be so unified but if the low really gets stuck west of Alps and then heads north than it is a matter of day or two before the cold air is blown away. I experienced jumps from arctic days to 10C in 24 hours so I know cold air can be shifted pretty easily if the conditions are right.

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6 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I'm calling it based on what the models and ensembles have been consistently showing for 24-36 hours now, anything other than this is hopecasting.

Or interpreting why you feel what the models are showing is incorrect based on previous experience?

I am sure this is why many posters are sceptical of a quick warm up over the weekend rather than just hopecasting?

The surface cold actually appears to be pushing back South again on Sunday according to the 6z GFS unless I am mistaken?

Edited by Kentish Snowman

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11 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Well, thankfully you’re here to tell us all how the weather will pan out in 6 days time, during a record breaking double SSW and with an extreme cold pool of air affecting the UK. I’m envious, to my feeble mind anyone ‘calling it’ at this stage is clearly Einstein reborn and must be fast tracked to the Met Office with immediate effect. I’ve never seen models reverse or drastically change, after agreeing for 20 minutes. Oh, hang on.....

or maybe he is commenting on what the models quite clearly show? there has been a clear trend of warmer air being dragged up with the low for the very south of the country since yesterdays 6Z ouput.

Just looking through the GFS run, really is going to be quite snowy through Thursday/Friday.. Oxfordshire looks a sweet spot, could change slightly.

Edited by jayb1989

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3 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

You now seem to be so hellbent on this occurring because you stated it was absolutely nailed a few posts back, that you are stuck in bias confirmation mode. 

 Hopecasting? Really??

Yes I believe it is FOR THE SOUTH as I clearly stated, when you have pretty much every model on the same wavelength and the ensembles are pretty much in unanimous agreement, how can it be seen any other way? I love the cold as much as anyone but based on what the models show right now within a pretty reliable timeframe I feel my view is fair.

Edited by Weathizard

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2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Yes I believe it is FOR THE SOUTH as I clearly stated, when you have pretty much every model on the same wavelength and the ensembles are pretty much in unanimous agreement, how can it be seen any other way? I love the cold as much as anyone but based on what the models show right now within a pretty reliable timeframe I feel my view is fair.

I agree to the extent that the models are showing this. But it’s your insistence that they are definitely correct which is causing the replies that you are getting. In this situation, within the broad pattern, a 100 mile shift can make the world of difference. Usually, a 100 mile difference with your average Atlantic depression makes no difference to the overall outcome, so nobody comments on it. On a global scale, 100 miles is like millimetres.

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Whilst GFS does show less cold air moving north the ground will be that cold it won't be an instant change for the majority whilst the south does make double digits midlands north remains chilly

06_201_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.4899850dec7342f51f2c839ad521c5f6.png06_201_ukthickness850.thumb.png.fc4c5143e45c16eae3fb64e0808504e9.png

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3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Yes I believe it is FOR THE SOUTH as I clearly stated, when you have pretty much every model on the same wavelength and the ensembles are pretty much in unanimous agreement, how can it be seen any other way? I love the cold as much as anyone but based on what the models show right now within a pretty reliable timeframe I feel my view is fair.

Perhaps the "far south" might be better terminology for now?

The GFS 06z Op taken at face value, which is what this thread is about, continues the risk of snowfall, or a wintry mix, for counties such as Gloucestershire, Wiltshire on both Saturday;

5a92929b5a277_prectypeuktopo(4).thumb.png.a6cd17375568a7e497628bbb740fde3a.png

And Sunday;

5a9292ae3931b_prectypeuktopo(5).thumb.png.290ffccc16ad1ec7a97d25b9190eb555.png 

5a9292b535fe8_prectypeuktopo(6).thumb.png.ef8e6ec17a983751c333662cd16761e0.png

Yes, the far south shows rain and yes, this spreads to all other southern areas beyond the weekend but that is a long way away yet.

The recent & favourable trend is definitely to bring less cold Atlantic air into the mix over the weekend for the south of the UK but the process in which this happens along with the speed in which this happens is open to debate still.

That's ignoring the very cold working week almost upon us too, with the potential of a major snow event for the south on Thursday/Friday before any less cold Atlantic air infiltrates.

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I think the 6z looks reasonable but how does that low at the 200 hours mark not move or fill??Also the pv is know where to be seen to the nnw!!!.strange run in fi  oh slider gate the movie at 288 hours nnnnoooo! !!

Edited by swfc

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Pointless looking at snow detail re Fridays channel Low as it's 5 days out, Even so it certainly won't be mild with a bitting wind chill and Dp hovering around freezing or below. Very interesting all the same but to much scope for details to change at this range. 

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The track of the azores low wont be known until weds at least i feel, small changes in track will obviously make a huge difference to what falls from above. A discrete surface high here or there could make a difference too.

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Just to put to bed why I feel it's game over for the south/far south, here is every model at day 5.

Every model shows milder air introduced, of course they COULD be wrong.. anything is possible but for every model to be wrong at day 5 I just don't see it personally, this along with both the GFS and ECM ensemble suites, it's pretty strongly in favour of milder air taking control in the south.

IMG_0387.GIF

IMG_0388.PNG

IMG_0389.GIF

IMG_0390.PNG

IMG_0382.PNG

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