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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Surrey
  • Location: Reigate Surrey
    1 minute ago, Jayces said:

    Great respect for @johnholmes unbiased views and his advice has always been to compare like for like not run by run so below we have yesterdays GFS 06z 144 Versus todays 120 so same time, same parameters etc and the cold air (850's) is further South on today's run. Okay, it's not a huge amount but for our small island it can make a massive difference for a lot of people.

    gfs-1-144_vqt2.png

    gfs-1-120_aem5.png

    Hope I did this right.

    Great post that indeed we should be comparing like for like runs. For my view I see the low slightly higher pressure and correcting South. Need to look over next few runs if this will continue. If it does then game on for he south 

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    Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

    Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

    Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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    Posted
  • Location: Bollington
  • Location: Bollington
    1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

    I'm calling it based on what the models and ensembles have been consistently showing for 24-36 hours now, anything other than this is hopecasting.

    Any other interpretation of the models other than yours is hopecasting?

    Edited by Wardlegacy
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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
    1 hour ago, AWD said:

    Is it me or does the 0z Arpege have the iberian LP a lot further south compared to other model output for the same timeframe;

    arpegeeur-0-96.thumb.png.10a4a2b41790d52b7fde85b08b34f19f.png o

    Considering the arpege is a hires short range model could it really be that wrong!?? 

    I also remember back in Dec during one of the cold spells where the big 3 models were showing the cold continuing, then the arpege came out showing it turning milder  and guess what, it turned out to be correct, knowing our  luck it won't be this time but the 12z runs could be very interesting. 

    Edited by Smartie
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    Posted
  • Location: Nottingham
  • Location: Nottingham

    The reality here is at the end of the week we will be in march - it's not a month of perpetual winter but one of wild twists and turns

    The low pressure brings the potential for a proper snow event on a nationwide basis 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Sunday has a band of rain moving up from the southwest potential for this to turn to snow as it moves further north into the colder air

    06_174_preciptype.thumb.png.a45110259e12da859b0621682a2a46b5.png06_174_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.801231b3c61dffe0dcfe681d1e9bb32d.png

    06_177_preciptype.thumb.png.cbb9b5348cc67b1aabd7711bb0148ee9.png06_177_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.429ebd9cd071c9e3d03ced71a0c7d17b.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Czech Republic
  • Location: Czech Republic

    I wasn't expecting models to be so unified but if the low really gets stuck west of Alps and then heads north than it is a matter of day or two before the cold air is blown away. I experienced jumps from arctic days to 10C in 24 hours so I know cold air can be shifted pretty easily if the conditions are right.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
    6 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    I'm calling it based on what the models and ensembles have been consistently showing for 24-36 hours now, anything other than this is hopecasting.

    Or interpreting why you feel what the models are showing is incorrect based on previous experience?

    I am sure this is why many posters are sceptical of a quick warm up over the weekend rather than just hopecasting?

    The surface cold actually appears to be pushing back South again on Sunday according to the 6z GFS unless I am mistaken?

    Edited by Kentish Snowman
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    11 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

    Well, thankfully you’re here to tell us all how the weather will pan out in 6 days time, during a record breaking double SSW and with an extreme cold pool of air affecting the UK. I’m envious, to my feeble mind anyone ‘calling it’ at this stage is clearly Einstein reborn and must be fast tracked to the Met Office with immediate effect. I’ve never seen models reverse or drastically change, after agreeing for 20 minutes. Oh, hang on.....

    or maybe he is commenting on what the models quite clearly show? there has been a clear trend of warmer air being dragged up with the low for the very south of the country since yesterdays 6Z ouput.

    Just looking through the GFS run, really is going to be quite snowy through Thursday/Friday.. Oxfordshire looks a sweet spot, could change slightly.

    Edited by jayb1989
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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
    3 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

    You now seem to be so hellbent on this occurring because you stated it was absolutely nailed a few posts back, that you are stuck in bias confirmation mode. 

     Hopecasting? Really??

    Yes I believe it is FOR THE SOUTH as I clearly stated, when you have pretty much every model on the same wavelength and the ensembles are pretty much in unanimous agreement, how can it be seen any other way? I love the cold as much as anyone but based on what the models show right now within a pretty reliable timeframe I feel my view is fair.

    Edited by Weathizard
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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    Yes I believe it is FOR THE SOUTH as I clearly stated, when you have pretty much every model on the same wavelength and the ensembles are pretty much in unanimous agreement, how can it be seen any other way? I love the cold as much as anyone but based on what the models show right now within a pretty reliable timeframe I feel my view is fair.

    I agree to the extent that the models are showing this. But it’s your insistence that they are definitely correct which is causing the replies that you are getting. In this situation, within the broad pattern, a 100 mile shift can make the world of difference. Usually, a 100 mile difference with your average Atlantic depression makes no difference to the overall outcome, so nobody comments on it. On a global scale, 100 miles is like millimetres.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Whilst GFS does show less cold air moving north the ground will be that cold it won't be an instant change for the majority whilst the south does make double digits midlands north remains chilly

    06_201_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.4899850dec7342f51f2c839ad521c5f6.png06_201_ukthickness850.thumb.png.fc4c5143e45c16eae3fb64e0808504e9.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    Yes I believe it is FOR THE SOUTH as I clearly stated, when you have pretty much every model on the same wavelength and the ensembles are pretty much in unanimous agreement, how can it be seen any other way? I love the cold as much as anyone but based on what the models show right now within a pretty reliable timeframe I feel my view is fair.

    Perhaps the "far south" might be better terminology for now?

    The GFS 06z Op taken at face value, which is what this thread is about, continues the risk of snowfall, or a wintry mix, for counties such as Gloucestershire, Wiltshire on both Saturday;

    5a92929b5a277_prectypeuktopo(4).thumb.png.a6cd17375568a7e497628bbb740fde3a.png

    And Sunday;

    5a9292ae3931b_prectypeuktopo(5).thumb.png.290ffccc16ad1ec7a97d25b9190eb555.png 

    5a9292b535fe8_prectypeuktopo(6).thumb.png.ef8e6ec17a983751c333662cd16761e0.png

    Yes, the far south shows rain and yes, this spreads to all other southern areas beyond the weekend but that is a long way away yet.

    The recent & favourable trend is definitely to bring less cold Atlantic air into the mix over the weekend for the south of the UK but the process in which this happens along with the speed in which this happens is open to debate still.

    That's ignoring the very cold working week almost upon us too, with the potential of a major snow event for the south on Thursday/Friday before any less cold Atlantic air infiltrates.

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    I think the 6z looks reasonable but how does that low at the 200 hours mark not move or fill??Also the pv is know where to be seen to the nnw!!!.strange run in fi  oh slider gate the movie at 288 hours nnnnoooo! !!

    Edited by swfc
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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Pointless looking at snow detail re Fridays channel Low as it's 5 days out, Even so it certainly won't be mild with a bitting wind chill and Dp hovering around freezing or below. Very interesting all the same but to much scope for details to change at this range. 

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    Posted
  • Location: East Durham
  • Location: East Durham

    The track of the azores low wont be known until weds at least i feel, small changes in track will obviously make a huge difference to what falls from above. A discrete surface high here or there could make a difference too.

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Just to put to bed why I feel it's game over for the south/far south, here is every model at day 5.

    Every model shows milder air introduced, of course they COULD be wrong.. anything is possible but for every model to be wrong at day 5 I just don't see it personally, this along with both the GFS and ECM ensemble suites, it's pretty strongly in favour of milder air taking control in the south.

    IMG_0387.GIF

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    IMG_0389.GIF

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    IMG_0382.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Donaghadee, Co. Down
  • Location: Donaghadee, Co. Down
    39 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

    Well, thankfully you’re here to tell us all how the weather will pan out in 6 days time, during a record breaking double SSW and with an extreme cold pool of air affecting the UK. I’m envious, to my feeble mind anyone ‘calling it’ at this stage is clearly Einstein reborn and must be fast tracked to the Met Office with immediate effect. I’ve never seen models reverse or drastically change, after agreeing for 20 minutes. Oh, hang on.....

    Bit harsh in your assessment of what is a very sensible post and a very viable outcome. The models whether some like it or not are at the minute and have been for the last few days been showing less cold / milder conditions approach from fri / sat onwards. The models and yes even the UKMO introduce these conditions to particularly southern England. These are backed by the ensembles. Anyone thinking otherwise must have blinkers on if they can’t see the trend across the different models.

    We may have had a record breaking SSW but as the experts have said in the strat thread, it doesn’t always guarantee cold for us. We do get a blast for a few days yes and yes there will be snow. Will it be record breaking - imho no. The issue is the HLB drifts to the west to Greenland and on some runs further towards the eastern seaboard. The block need to set up shop over Scandy as it has done previously in many of the real cold spells that the UK as seen previously were it has on occasions remained for several weeks. 

    There will be further tweaks north and south but imo the trend is there and the deep cold lasts no more than a few days.

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

    Thank you!

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