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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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1 hour ago, Weathizard said:

It's game over for the far south, pretty much unanimous agreement amongst the GFS and ECM ensemble suites for a fast warm up, I mean... anyone who can't see that in the GFS ensembles is in serious denial, people will say it's a 6 days away but we've seen once the GFS and ECM suites are onboard at this range they aren't often wrong.

 

Question for the more intelligent ones regarding the SSW, as it was a record reversal do you think to some extent that is what is shooting the coldest uppers straight through us at a vast rate of knots as the cold pool seems to move through us very fast, all things considered.

IMG_0382.PNG

Not really there have been plenty of times when GFS and ECM have together "agreed" and it's gone a completely different way.  Think of all the times when GFS & ECM agreed we were going to be buried under 25 feet of snow 5 days out and then at T+24/48 the cold spell completely evaporates and we ended up warm instead.

If this was showing a snow storm and staying cold for 2 weeks everyone says its FI, could change etc but somehow because it shows a breakdown and 2 models kind of agree it's suddenly "game over"???  If that low tracks 100 miles south it's far from game over and that level of correction is probably well within margin of error for the models concerned.

Yes it's there and it's showing a warm up for some BUT it's not certain, it's not game over.

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From what I can see it’s looks very warm Friday in the CI’s forecasts here backing the idea that it warms, had been showing a forecast of sleet and 4c early this morning now showing rain and a max of 9c and a SW wind. 

But with east F7 and snow on the Thursday max of 4c which had been sleet same time 24 hours before. Wednesday a cold SE wind dry max 1c , that has been consistent for days. Tuesday NE snow showers 2c.  

Could all be different tomorrow, I shall just enjoy any snow that happens to appear!  

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Please post tweets in the model tweets thread not in here, the reason we ask this is precisely what just happened (with the now deleted posts), a short tweet is often open to interpretation, which leads to misinformation and chinese whispers doing the rounds through the thread. 

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1 minute ago, Tog said:

From what I can see it’s looks very warm Friday in the CI’s forecasts here backing the idea that it warms, had been showing a forecast of sleet and 4c early this morning now showing rain and a max of 9c and a SW wind. 

But with east F7 and snow on the Thursday max of 4c which had been sleet same time 24 hours before. Wednesday a cold SE wind dry max 1c , that has been consistent for days. Tuesday NE snow showers 2c.  

Could all be different tomorrow, I shall just enjoy any snow that happens to appear!  

9c is not very warm 

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14 minutes ago, radiohead said:

06Z ICON 120

iconeu_uk1-56-120-0.png?25-10

 

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

GFS 0z shows this also, turns back to rain readily then onwards though as the mild air is introduced

IMG_0386.PNG


6 days away still. Reading to much into the specifics of these charts surely?
I think we see the trend for questions over the event toward the south, will it be rain or snow or something in between?  ...Will the event occur as its currently forecast? Probably not imo, it is still too early to call at this stage.
I will hold fire to see whether the models come to (or continue to come to) agreement in a day or twos time before taking gospel in those chart cherry-picking for Friday. 
I for one am very interested to see how this all develops!  Models are, after all, subject to change - interesting runs ahead! 
 

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1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Let’s see where we are by tonight.

The actual block is expected to head further west but you only need a small correction in where the low goes to bring quite different conditions.

There’s been some corrections this morning from the outputs which have improved slightly from last night in terms of snow.

As long as you maintain that surface flow from the east even if the 850s become less cold it will still be cold at the surface .

Wouldn't the surface cold be enhanced by lying snow ? I am not sure how much the models factor this in. 

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On 22/02/2018 at 10:36, Steady Easterly said:

Many parts in the East especially, but also other areas, would be cut off if this output is anywhere near correct, quite incredible charts. Model watching will never be quite the same again after all this.

Latest runs seem to be showing a very Snowy Thursday for the SW , This is before Fridays possible event and shows as all Snow . 

 

prectypeuktopo.png

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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Saturday afternoon sees the south in high single figures elsewhere 1c to 4c still sub-zero for Scotland

06_153_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.e7bfe06bb28a7e99154a537799d06051.png06_153_ukthickness850.thumb.png.b2a5a45acedcbbfb015d3fe58025f101.png

GFS 06z shows On Sat Only the extreme south is showing 7/8c. From M4 north it is 1c / 2c and -3cm to -5c uppers.. more than cold enough for snow to continue ! 

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