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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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3 minutes ago, Wardlegacy said:

Though it was an upper warm front from the east that brought drizzle

a low approached from the southwest bringing southwesterlies via a warm front initially, then went to a southeastly but it had closed the curtains on that significant cold spell.

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Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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Hopefully signs from the latest Gfs run that it's in the process of backing down from a change to milder from next weekend?..anyway, turning bitterly cold with snow next week and disruption on a large scale with drifting in strengthening ESEly winds with severe wind chill and penetrating frosts..I hope the cold lasts weeks!:D:cold-emoji:

Edited by Frosty.
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Guys a Question. Today we seen on some of the outputs Gfs Ukmo and Ecm Trying to bring in mild air by 144h.  These runs today showing these cynoptics could this have anything to do with second strat warming?

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10 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

From the very latest output and had very strong ensemble support. This has been steadfast in cold until the middle of the month 

Cheers - good to hear that as i'm sure a good few more in here will! :good:

Edited by Purga
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18 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

 

Don't know why I have quote above??? Mike has invaded my post :D

Anyways, looking through GEFS its not game over as yet. Some better options in there. Who knows maybe models over reacting to something today. 

Mornings runs will be eagerly awaited I suspect :)

Edited by Jason M
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Significant differences in the GEFS as early as day 4.  I need to revise my previous pessimistic post.  This is not a done deal yet.  Matching any ensemble member to the UK fax for day 5 leads to a positive outcome for coldies.

Edited by mulzy
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3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GEFS ensemble mean at T144 might just calm the nerves:

gens-21-1-144.png?18

gens-21-0-144.png?18

Still think this will go further south, we'll see!

Nope! The HP above Greenland retrogresses too fast and LP's coming in from the SW will create a big mess of changing conditions, merely S to SE driven..

Although the ECM12 was at the end clearly a warm outlyer, it presents the trend in the models. After next weekend it is clearly gone with the cold.

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The GEFS in the reliable looks fine to me. Fun to speculate what might happen thereafter but remember if this low fails to fully break the cold we'll see a very different long-term picture emerge in the models. Time will tell.

Anyone got a coin to flip? 

Edited by Reverse Zonality
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More of a thread watcher than a participator, due to lack of knowledge, but do we have the possibility of a Thames Streamer occurring? From memory in 2009 there wasn't much on the cards even a few hours before it began to snow in my neck of the woods, and we had 6-9inches of unforcast snow that night?

 

 

   

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35 minutes ago, Hotspur61 said:

Yeah it was an interesting one with "coldie" Tomasz.Looks like snow showers starting midday onwards on Monday and Monday-Weds looks like showers will become widespread with some prolonged snowfall although he did stress some areas will get more than others(graphics showed some could get 20cms+ while others 3cms or less.Friday could be a possible blizzard for Southern Britain but did stress alot of uncertainty.Whilst models as i write this post have much of South in milder air by end of week the BBC graphics didnt indicate this but Friday is so far away in met terms we wont i feel know  until Tuesday night how far North this low pressure will go.I am just looking forward to the next 48-72 hrs unfold and then take it from there.Lets just enjoy this epic cold for the time of year and hope this ST cold snap turns into a cold spell and this time next week we will still be enjoying it:cold::)

Is this the forecast you mean?   https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43184987

 

If so, it's indeed interesting to see how much uncertainty is still being placed on the scenario from Thursday onwards, but that the the risks of blizzards into next weekend are now being emphasised.    

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2 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

While we are all here may I offer up some NAVGEM?

 

tempresult_zmo0.gif

 

 

Keeps the the low a lot less intense ? Is that right ? Or am I talking ?? 

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6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Keeps the the low a lot less intense ? Is that right ? Or am I talking ?? 

I would love to have this but Navgem over-estimates the HP above Greenland. ECM, UKMO and GFS don't see this.....

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