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Paul

Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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It's only a few days ago that confidence was high for a 2-week bitterly cold spell starting from tomorrow. Is that in the balance now?

GFS started a trend? Yday Ecm and ukmo had the low barely affecting UK; today's runs show they've moved the LP for end of next week north (compared to yday). GFS today also moves it further north (compared to its runs yday).

Interesting few days coming up, for sure.

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6 minutes ago, garylaverick said:

An incredibly persistent period of snow being modelled for the NE, unlike anything I've seen before.

tempresult_ise9.gif

North East England potentially going to bear the brunt off the Beasterly by the looks of it. 

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12 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

@nick sussex nick would pert 16 be the likely track of the low based on your exsperience of how these thing go? 

This isn’t your normal type set up.

The low moves east and then turns ne then north, it’s also different from a Channel low.

However historically any attempted breakdown with the current set up in terms of blocking gets corrected south even at closer range.

Remember in this instance the strat warming means the low will be coming up against a renewed amount of forcing from the north .

The UKMO forecasters will remain vague because what the models might show and their previous experience means they’ll be especially cautious.

We’ll see over the next few days.

Edited by nick sussex

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1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

It's only a few days ago that confidence was high for a 2-week bitterly cold spell starting from tomorrow. Is that in the balance now?

GFS started a trend? Yday Ecm and ukmo had the low barely affecting UK; today's runs show they've moved the LP for end of next week north (compared to yday). GFS today also moves it further north (compared to its runs yday).

Interesting few days coming up, for sure.

Yes crazy that there is a big possibility this world ending cold spell could be over this time next week.

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8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

12z mean looks to have gone up slightly compared to the 06z lots of scatter beyond the end of next week but the trend from GFS at present is to something less cold for the south at least

12z

graphe_ens3_nxp6.thumb.gif.e6c372646af37a0bcfae85a39486c116.gif

06z

graphe_ens3_bkb8.thumb.gif.0b698c81606694cb78f5afddcfed391f.gif

Worth noting that in the 12z, the 2nd of March uppers have decreased slightly now that its coming into the near timeframe. I expect that to continue towards Thurs/Fridays event.

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I think that it's easy to spend too much time looking at and worrying about the future, instead of enjoying the present. Even without snow, the next few days should be bitterly cold, and this on it's own produces interesting effects. 

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With this frontal feature at end of week occurs, people will get the frontal in the south and snow showers piling into say parts of north east england, yorkshire etc. Thats if current 12z gfs is correct. Ukmo have it a bit further north i think, central england would do well, parts of southern pennines would be well hit, on top of lying snow from previous days

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With that low I think it will be much closer to being resolved once we have the cold pool in place, as it's where that cold wave and the low interact that will determine where the low goes next. 

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ECM out at T72 and again a beast is heading towards us, this one seems to have rather too many front feet for my liking. That's a bit weird, no?

ECM0-72.GIF

Edited by Mike Poole

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ECM looks to be sticking with its 00z suite to me at +96

4842C1F4-E58C-4A82-845C-268BB5246854.thumb.gif.7c1b267d74fed1916fad04ce6dde5410.gif

Edited by karlos1983

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Stark differences already between GFS (left) and ECM (right) at +96.

gfs-0-96.png?12ECM1-96.GIF

Blocking appears both more robust and pushing west stronger.  ECM is also notable for delay of the 2nd LP system running behind the 1st, which should prevent the block eroding as seen in the GFS run..

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4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

ECM looks to be sticking with its 00z suite to me at +96

4842C1F4-E58C-4A82-845C-268BB5246854.thumb.gif.7c1b267d74fed1916fad04ce6dde5410.gif

Slightly further south maybe?

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This is just incredible from the ECM at 96 hours - large swathes of the UK and Ireland will be getting frequent heavy snow showers all day long. :santa-emoji:

Eastern areas from North to South buried by the end of the day. (including previous two days snowfall!)

 

873C1D20-CE22-46C8-82C0-579CFF98AE6E.png

9D58238C-A0E2-4D3A-A92C-583B7F8CCF58.png

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3 minutes ago, Matthew Gill said:

Slightly further south maybe?

I’m not involved in that debate :rofl:

i do not like the ecm 120 :nonono:

DBA7A1D5-4C5A-45F8-A0D8-6B95663A51D1.thumb.gif.b59ea88d8865f83959a62751aae7877f.gif

Drags to much mild air in. Seems very quick to me to be honest..

Edited by karlos1983

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ECM 120 is great, much less mild air mixed in than gfs! Winner!

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+120 comparison (GFS left, ECM right):

gfs-0-120.png?12?12ECM1-120.GIF

ECH1-120.GIF?24-0gfsnh-0-120.png?12?12

Very similar, aside from more robust blocking over greenland.  Also from the NH view we can see there's less disturbance to the east which should provide more resistance to LP penetration, and that siberian PV lobe looks set to flood south.  Fingers crossed, hopefully I'm not talking utter tripe! Time will tell...

 

EDIT: 120 has vindicated my views! huzzah!
 

ECH1-144.GIF?24-0

The LP is pushed back west, and the HP to our east is eroded, paving the way for a reload. Nice.  What we really want to see is that LP start to disrupt and sink south in the next frames...

Edited by weatherguy

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4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I’m not involved in that debate :rofl:

i do not like the ecm 120 :nonono:

DBA7A1D5-4C5A-45F8-A0D8-6B95663A51D1.thumb.gif.b59ea88d8865f83959a62751aae7877f.gif

Drags to much mild air in. Seems very quick to me to be honest..

Not sure I agree

SNOW.thumb.gif.652957d4fa19e8d03f4877bd23cadef0.gif

Less cold, yes. But SE winds ahead of the low will mean that it'd be an all snow event, even down to the coast.

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1 minute ago, Great Plum said:

Well, that’s not at all confusing! 

 

B4C44D0D-E240-4071-8A5B-6D5D70484F66.png

Two people looking at their locations...

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