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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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5 minutes ago, jayb1989 said:

Remarkable consistency in the 6z Ens says everything regarding the low, i think we can safely say with confidence that the low will be pushing further north, how far north is now the key. I suggest there will be a fair amount of rain in the south, flooding could be a major issue as we head into the weekend.

 

Oh, I wish I could look into the future like you lol. One run and it's game over? 

Plenty of twists and turns to come throughout the week, remember it's 6 days away and a lot can change in even 24 hours! My personal opinion is that the low will run across the channel.

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Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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4 minutes ago, jayb1989 said:

Remarkable consistency in the 6z Ens says everything regarding the low, i think we can safely say with confidence that the low will be pushing further north, how far north is now the key. I suggest there will be a fair amount of rain in the south, flooding could be a major issue as we head into the weekend.

 

????. I recommend you read the updated METO update . Is definitely not following the GFS

The METO are following the ECM that looks like this ?IMG_1795.thumb.PNG.a1105ab4bbf5c92c7e77cf6a5d17dc97.PNGIMG_1796.thumb.PNG.4b96e9d36581e934a0e37dad2c51bcb9.PNG

The cold looks like staying into the following week ?

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Just now, ICE COLD said:

????. I recommend you read the updated METO update . Is definitely not following the GFS

The METO are following the ECM that looks like this ?IMG_1795.thumb.PNG.a1105ab4bbf5c92c7e77cf6a5d17dc97.PNGIMG_1796.thumb.PNG.4b96e9d36581e934a0e37dad2c51bcb9.PNG

The cold looks like staying into the following week ?

I hope you and they are correct as a cold fan. I’m just commenting on the trend as per the GFS 6z, a clear trend at that. Obviously it doesn’t mean it’s correct, but we can’t ignore it either, can we?

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1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

????. I recommend you read the updated METO update . Is definitely not following the GFS

The METO are following the ECM that looks like this ?IMG_1795.thumb.PNG.a1105ab4bbf5c92c7e77cf6a5d17dc97.PNGIMG_1796.thumb.PNG.4b96e9d36581e934a0e37dad2c51bcb9.PNG

The cold looks like staying into the following week ?

Interestingly, that's similar to the GEFS 6z mean I posted on previous page, much less progressive than the op with cold continuing much longer..I expect great things from this siberian beast!!:D:cold-emoji:

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14 minutes ago, jayb1989 said:

Remarkable consistency in the 6z Ens says everything regarding the low, i think we can safely say with confidence that the low will be pushing further north, how far north is now the key. I suggest there will be a fair amount of rain in the south, flooding could be a major issue as we head into the weekend.

 

Very brave call.  I have seen entire GFS suites flip at closer time frames than that.

I would put the chances of that GFS op run verifying at 5-10% maximum.  Only my opinion of course but the evolution just doesn't look right to me.

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1 minute ago, jayb1989 said:

I hope you and they are correct as a cold fan. I’m just commenting on the trend as per the GFS 6z, a clear trend at that. Obviously it doesn’t mean it’s correct, but we can’t ignore it either, can we?

It just amazes me that people back the GFS and GEFS . It always flip flops has for the last 2 weeks . Remember about 10 to 12 days ago it didn't even wanna no about deep cold . The ECM has been very consistent the last ten (ish) days . This back up by METO for an extended cold spell . I know where my bet is . ?

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14 minutes ago, jayb1989 said:

Remarkable consistency in the 6z Ens says everything regarding the low, i think we can safely say with confidence that the low will be pushing further north, how far north is now the key. I suggest there will be a fair amount of rain in the south, flooding could be a major issue as we head into the weekend.

 

I'm no sure flooding will be major issue in any case if it were to happen. Its not exactly been a wet winter, water tables are not at bursting, its been pretty dry the last few days. At most, local flooding maybe from any snow melt but this is not 1947 scenario again.

 

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7 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

It just amazes me that people back the GFS and GEFS . It always flip flops has for the last 2 weeks . Remember about 10 to 12 days ago it didn't even wanna no about deep cold . The ECM has been very consistent the last ten (ish) days . This back up by METO for an extended cold spell . I know where my bet is . ?

ECM flip flopped as well and then suddenly dropped a cold spell at relatively short time period. GFS followed suite with ukmo last onboard. However all models were too progressive with the cold with ecm flipping briefly to a less cold draw from the south east before flipping back.  So they all struggled in dealing with ssw.

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Truth is the models are all not that dissimiliar really and 100 miles difference is the difference between -7C 850hpa temps and 1-2C 850hpa,and the difference between total snow and a snow-rain event.

At this stage the idea being sniffed out is logical, its just whether it gets quite as far north as the GFS thinks it will.

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Yes well said! You've posted pretty much what I was going to so thanks for saving me the bother!:laugh:

With MOGREPS  going the ECM route & UKMO sticking resolutely to a very cold / cold outlook well into March I know where my money is.

BTW I can understand some folks reacting to 'poor' Op runs - we're all human after all :D

Steady as she goes guys let's enjoy the days ahead and hope you all get a damn good pasting!! :cold::cold:

Edited by Purga
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2 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

NMM advancing things a little? 

 

nmm-16-120-0.png?24-13

To my knowledge the WRF-NMM takes GFS data as its source, so whilst useful, at that range your seeing more or less what the GFS wants to do, in higher resolution.

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4 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

NMM advancing things a little? 

 

nmm-16-120-0.png?24-13

Doesn’t the NNM model use data from the GFS? Think I read that somewhere but may be mistaken.

Edit: Post above has answered this.

Edited by MattStoke
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4 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

NMM advancing things a little? 

 

nmm-16-120-0.png?24-13

I'm not expecting the low to be blown up as much as that. That will also mean less advection of the milder uppers through France. Either way, even if it eventually does turn to rain, it will be the most epic blizzard possibly of the 21st century. 

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4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

To my knowledge the WRF-NMM takes GFS data as its source, so whilst useful, at that range your seeing more or less what the GFS wants to do, in higher resolution.

Possibly but it does not exactly tally with the GFS at that time, it looks little more progressive to me. Could be wrong.

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With regard to the GFS evolution of "that" low next friday - the stamps confirm that every single run has the low placed further south and east than the control map, barring P14...therefore the progressive nature and dilution of the 850's and placement out to the west of the low is perhaps overplayed a little on the contol. In my opinion, placement in the channel and then an intense weakening is a fairly likely outcome, backed by many ensemble members.

850t-156.png

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51 minutes ago, jayb1989 said:

I hope you and they are correct as a cold fan. I’m just commenting on the trend as per the GFS 6z, a clear trend at that. Obviously it doesn’t mean it’s correct, but we can’t ignore it either, can we?

But you have said it’s safe to say with confidence the low will head North .....now it might not be correct ....so your not confident???? 

 

Im confused 

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