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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    1 minute ago, kold weather said:

    That just goes to show how entrenched the cold air is at the surface. 

    Usual 850hpa rules don't apply here guys. Even 0C at 850hpa will probably still be snow at the surface in this type of set-up.

    06z GFS running, lets see how it evolves the situation.

    The beauty of a continental air mass :)

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    Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

    Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

    Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

    Low looks a bit further north on this run so far, but we'll see how it goes.

    Edited by MattStoke
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    Posted
  • Location: Nottingham
  • Location: Nottingham

    The convection clearly showing on the models now.

    And updated warning for Tuesday matches this- yellow across most of the country just issued!

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    Posted
  • Location: Truro
  • Weather Preferences: Cold
  • Location: Truro
    16 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    Are we really having discussions regarding snow melt ,come on guys we have like the best charts ever. ?

    Icon looking good ? 

    GFS 6z out to T48 . Yes this at just T48 .STUNNING. 

    IMG_1781.PNG

    Looks as though the cold uppers are spreading across the UK a little quicker?

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    LP positioing at 120hrs looks even worse for the south on this run, more round LP rather then flattened suggests milder air will make it to the south of England at least. 06z is going to be likely to give RAIN to the south I suspect...

    Yep,132hrs round LP will mean rain for the south away from the SW once the LP gets enough north. HORRIBLE run for the SE in particular.Good still the further west/north you are.

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    Cold air mixing out ?

    IMG_1789.PNG

    But on the bright side completely different to the ECM ?

    Edited by ICE COLD
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    Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent

    Hopefully that low pressure building in Italy can stop the warmer southerlies getting in and keep the easterly going

     

    GFSOPEU06_153_1.png

     

    Need our low to slide east now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

    Watching the GFS trying to get to grips with these setups is like watching a monkey trying to balance a plate of gravy on it's head while ice skating.

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    Posted
  • Location: Truro
  • Weather Preferences: Cold
  • Location: Truro
    3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    Still very cold and some people getting buried ?

    IMG_1790.PNG

    IMG_1791.PNG

    Its my fault, I just told the wife to get some tin food in. Lets hope its being a little over progressive with its Northerly track. If the other models join in to the same extent then I guess the likelihood increases

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    The GFS 06z is again one mans treasure - but another mans loss-

    However - Despite looking awful its movement is towards the ECM solution by recurving the low- There is also x2 lows which will now have less propulsion northwards- 

    so on the face of it not great but working back towards the better ground

    By 156 the rain has turned back to snow... 

    1D4F4DD1-9E38-4D04-AB84-9DE99BA02A33.thumb.png.12f667c405ccc7f5e0f2acb9134d7568.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    1 hour ago, Backtrack said:

    For my fellow north westerners 

    Topographic lift is less relevant when the flow is particular strong. Tied in with hopefully some high(ish) lapse rates and painfully low temps and dps, showers shouldn't have too much of a problem sailing over the Pennines. 

    For those saying the rain shadow won't be in effect at all- yes it will. As always, regardless of what it is, topographic lift will always take some 'power' away from the showers, meaning that either side of higher ground receives the highest amount of PPN before the shower dissipates completely. 

    Hard to see from current modelling how anywhere west of Manchester's higher routes will see lying snowfall from this setup. Yes it'll be sub-zero by day and night but couple that with the time of year and that's no match for the power of the sun. I'd like to remind everyone that we're only two weeks away from the first moderate UV indexes of 2018 in the SW. That's enough to give those with fair skin sunburn. If it can burn skin, what do you think it'll do to a light covering if snow? Farewell! 

    I think our best chance comes from the breakdown. A classic battleground, but then marginality comes back into play. Cold yes, but not snowy for the north west of England as per usual really. 

    To put it simply, UV doesn't melt snow... think Alpine skiing...:D:cold:

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

    Incredible snowstorm on the 06Z GFS. Far more severe looking than 1982 if that came off. Parts of Ireland, Wales or SW England would be facing catastrophic conditions the like of which haven't been seen for many years if that happened. Can't fathom how massive the drifts would be with such strong winds and intense ppn. Stunning.

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    3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    Still very cold and some people getting buried ?

    IMG_1790.PNG

    IMG_1791.PNG

    Yes i think this is a fair middle ground and is about where we will see the low track. North Midlands could see hours and hours of snow. South of Oxfordshire likely to see rain after initial snow. Hopefully the rest of the GFS suite will give us an idea of where this sits. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
    4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    Still very cold and some people getting buried ?

    IMG_1790.PNG

    IMG_1791.PNG

    Looking forward to yet more West Sussex cold rain! I’ve had six ‘events’ down here this winter with heavy frontal rain in Tm temps of between 1-3c and it ain’t fun. Hopefully with much lower dewpoints and embedded cold this time round we’ll have a better chance from that system IF it tracks that way for going out with a bang rather than a whimper. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Got to laugh at the GFS, completely displaces all the cold air and brings the low up at a pretty terrible angle. Useless model.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    What a messy looking GFS for the UK. Its a big downgrade both in termsof temps and also the amount of snow that falls as the strongest pluse is too far west. Ireland does well however.

    For the south this wouldbe quite the poor way to end any cold spell, brief snow followed by alot of rain (esp in SW) followed by some snow as it winds down again. Meanwhile atlantic is about to take over around 168hrs...

    Further north stays as snow BUT synoptics are poor for long term cold on this run.

    Anyway I STILL will stand firm and think the LP is beingmodelled too far north, countless times this happens only for the LPto get adjusted south because its overdone the low...BUT the trend isn't good right now.

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    Got to laugh at the GFS, completely displaces all the cold air and brings the low up at a pretty terrible angle. Useless model.

    Why? It’s perfectly plausible.

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

    Thank you!

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