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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

    Big freeze on way snow showers next week for most bitter easterly flow end nextweek low in the south gfs tends blow them up as week goes on that will trend south. ECM looks to be going with the meto staying in cold well in March and also if low stays to south places like south west and southern England South East England and midlands we see a lot of snow ..:yahoo::cold:

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    Edited by abbie123
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    Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

    Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

    Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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    Posted
  • Location: Milton keynes
  • Location: Milton keynes

    In my opinion I would say that the low forecast,for late next week will stay just to the south of the UK,so basically south wales across to east Anglia and north will see snow!anywhere south of this will most likely be rain possibly sleet as the air is so cold.that's how is see it at the moment.interesting to see the ECM reload the cold after the low has passed,pretty amazing really!

    Edited by Lukesluckybunch100
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Looks like a lot riding on that end of week low pressure. ECM is just pure nirvana, with the snowstorm moving and and the colder air winning out. GFS could lead to heavy rain with too much milder air mixing in....literally on a knife edge. Those in the north and Scotland look like staying in the freezer come what may. All eyes peeled!!

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    2 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

    With such a cold airmass that’s built up there’s no way that low is just going to move north like it’s not there, it’s going to hit a brick wall and stall before moving off east imo. I’d say the low itself will go from say a line of Cornwall across the wash area with bands of snow wrapped around it. Just my thoughts anyway

    You may well be correct there.what you do need also besides the entrenched cold is to maintain some good heights to the nnw to be keep pressure on areas of low pressure trying to push in.The time scale is such that it may be the low runs onto iberia but thats all in the future

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    Posted
  • Location: Rhoose, South Wales
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Rhoose, South Wales

    I think the low showing on the models for late Thursday/Friday will struggle to make any Northwards track and I think a line from West to East along the M4 may be as far North as it get before heading off South East ..the cold block will be just too strong by then for it to make any great inroads ...my tuppence worth anyway

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    Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
    10 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    Outlier might be a bit harsh, it’s got support, cold end of ensembles yes, outlier I don’t think so.

    Tad more conclusive oooop north 

     

     

    0083C735-5C6C-4BC6-AAED-F3F2C089B127.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Looking at the op runs and it is such a fine line for the south with regards to this low. GFS op is actually so cold at the surface is stays as snow despite higher 850hpa for most. The SE gets a rare spell of freezing rain before the snow comes back.

    The fact it isvery much on the higher end of the ensembles suggests the op maybe slightly overdoing the strength of the low.

    Also worth noting the trend seems to be for the system to curve up further west, a risky set-up depending onwhether the low even gets far enough north.Great runs for the SW though for sure!

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

    People worrying that the GFS would bring rain in the south but it actually brings nothing but snow on the 0z. It's only after the low has cleared that temperatures slowly lift in the far south. Remember that uppers aren't important in this setup unless they shoot up above freezing.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    5 minutes ago, Raythan said:

    Tad more conclusive oooop north 

     

     

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    Yes not surprising, the milder members and the op won’t remove the cold at all really the further north you are. 

    Anyway lots of ice to go under the bridge before Chanel lowgate!

    in a month and year never to be spoken of again, the southwest was due to be smashed by a channel low down to +18 hrs and it missed the south coast and gave N France and the Channel Islands Narnia conditions. So I’m not at all convinced this low will make much if any inroads come the end of the week!

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: Deal, Kent
  • Location: Deal, Kent
    12 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch100 said:

    In my opinion I would say that the low forecast,for late next week will stay just to the south of the UK,so basically south wales across to east Anglia and north will see snow!anywhere south of this will most likely be rain possibly sleet as the air is so cold.that's how is see it at the moment.interesting to see the ECM reload the cold after the low has passed,pretty amazing really!

    I don't know much about weather, however I believe the uppers forecasted during the arrival of the low should keep any precipitation as snow. Although the low is mild and pushes well into the cold sector on current runs, it seems unlikely to me that it will reintroduce warmth enough for rain and sleet.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    People worrying that the GFS would bring rain in the south but it actually brings nothing but snow on the 0z. It's only after the low has cleared that temperatures slowly lift in the far south. Remember that uppers aren't important in this setup unless they shoot up above freezing.

    Yeah despite how marginal it looks,its probably the best run for snow, widespread 10-20cms, even in the SE as the short spell of freezing rain does nothing to the snowpack.

    ECM has barely any snow outside of the SW,they get between 10-20cms on this run, would imagine the moors would get, well more!

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl

    Personally I’m hoping for a halfway house between ECM and GFS for end of this week, as I’m not seeing ‘significant’ (upwards of circa 5cms) of snow for areas south and west of Birmingham.

    The East looks like it will do great, particularly NE England and the South East too. Scotland always does well!

    The best chance for the rest of us though is this front at the end of the week, so I ‘hope’ it gets far enough north to provide a decent fall for the South, SW, Mids and Wales, without it turning to rain in the south.

    I expect it however to not get that far north and mainly just affect places south of the M4 (can’t believe I’m writing that!) My selfish worry from a Midlands perspective is the cold will gradually mix out as the new month progresses and we’ll end up missing out!

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    41 minutes ago, jayb1989 said:

    Interesting looking at the ECM Spreads, seems a fair few want to take the low further North than was the case yesterday, taking all into account the sweet spot could well be the Midlands, with rain towards the south coast. Obviously still time to change.

    I think the spreads look larger because the mean is a bit lower. 

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    A lot of uncertainty this morning with the low moving ne and this is also effected by a shortwave which heads sw to meet it.

    Unusually the bigger ensemble spread in the ECM is between T120hrs and T168hrs hrs and then we see less spread after that which suggests the longer term pattern has more support.

    You can tell by looking at a selection of ECM ensembles from across the UK and into mainland Europe that low pressure is more likely to track ne.

    Much depends on when the low near Iberia starts to turn ne and at this range that’s still subject to change .

    The ECMs main difference with the GFS is the amount of trough disruption and this is helped by that little patch of green you see just to the north at T144hrs hrs which is an area of stronger positive heights which adds a bit more forcing on the low to the sw.

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    Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
    2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    The ECMs main difference with the GFS is the amount of trough disruption and this is helped by that little patch of green you see just to the north at T144hrs hrs

     

    For me the models that are quickest to remove the heights to our North and get the Scandi lows in quicker (NAVGEM and ICON 00z) are the ones that keep us in the freezer with out French low going East.

    ICOOPEU00_144_1.pngNVGOPEU00_144_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

    For my fellow north westerners 

    Topographic lift is less relevant when the flow is particular strong. Tied in with hopefully some high(ish) lapse rates and painfully low temps and dps, showers shouldn't have too much of a problem sailing over the Pennines. 

    For those saying the rain shadow won't be in effect at all- yes it will. As always, regardless of what it is, topographic lift will always take some 'power' away from the showers, meaning that either side of higher ground receives the highest amount of PPN before the shower dissipates completely. 

    Hard to see from current modelling how anywhere west of Manchester's higher routes will see lying snowfall from this setup. Yes it'll be sub-zero by day and night but couple that with the time of year and that's no match for the power of the sun. I'd like to remind everyone that we're only two weeks away from the first moderate UV indexes of 2018 in the SW. That's enough to give those with fair skin sunburn. If it can burn skin, what do you think it'll do to a light covering if snow? Farewell! 

    I think our best chance comes from the breakdown. A classic battleground, but then marginality comes back into play. Cold yes, but not snowy for the north west of England as per usual really. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
    11 minutes ago, Gustywind said:

    Personally I’m hoping for a halfway house between ECM and GFS for end of this week, as I’m not seeing ‘significant’ (upwards of circa 5cms) of snow for areas south and west of Birmingham.

    The East looks like it will do great, particularly NE England and the South East too. Scotland always does well!

    The best chance for the rest of us though is this front at the end of the week, so I ‘hope’ it gets far enough north to provide a decent fall for the South, SW, Mids and Wales, without it turning to rain in the south.

    I expect it however to not get that far north and mainly just affect places south of the M4 (can’t believe I’m writing that!) My selfish worry from a Midlands perspective is the cold will gradually mix out as the new month progresses and we’ll end up missing out!

    Good post....let' go out with a bang not a whimper ...Ukmo 168 looks ideal.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dover. Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, sun, thunder, storms, frosts, summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Dover. Kent
    7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    UKMO extended has a nasty looking low moving up from the south-west that coupled with winds from the east could deliver significant amounts of snow quite widely

    ukm2.2018030300_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.25e8478e9cbb0a2dc7889b78fc090f58.png

    In days of yore, the first attack fails bringing show in a line all points southward from north Pembrokeshire to Portsmouth with a possible extension east as far as Hastings on the coastal strip.

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    Posted
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
    6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    UKMO extended has a nasty looking low moving up from the south-west that coupled with winds from the east could deliver significant amounts of snow quite widely

    ukm2.2018030300_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.25e8478e9cbb0a2dc7889b78fc090f58.png

    Correct me if I'm wrong but this set up reminds me of the great blizzard of January 1982 which left 40-60 cm of level snow widely across the south west, west country and south Wales and up to 80cms in places. I'm not saying we'd get anything like these amounts from it but the set up looks similar.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    3 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

    For me the models that are quickest to remove the heights to our North and get the Scandi lows in quicker (NAVGEM and ICON 00z) are the ones that keep us in the freezer with out French low going East.

    ICOOPEU00_144_1.pngNVGOPEU00_144_1.png

    They’re actually quicker to develop the omega block and you’ll see the shortwave to the North gets absorbed by the main low to the sw but much further east.

    The others take the shortwave sw into the Atlantic.

    Anyway at least before the low uncertainty lots of interesting weather to come.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    UKMO extended has a nasty looking low moving up from the south-west that coupled with winds from the east could deliver significant amounts of snow quite widely

    ukm2.2018030300_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.25e8478e9cbb0a2dc7889b78fc090f58.png

    In 24 hrs the low has moved 100/150 further ne. It's the next frame which would be of interest. North? East? SE? West is the only one we could say no to imo.

     

    IMG_0619.PNG

    Edited by That ECM
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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

    Thank you!

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