Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Paul

Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Well, the GFS operationals continue to be determined to end the deep cold across the south later in the week / next weekend, however, the  ECM continues the deep cold flow across all the UK.

GEFS postage stamps show a range of positions of the low next Friday and Saturday, the GEFS MSLP has the low just or over the far south of UK:

loop.thumb.gif.df7a9f595033ac4db9f673ba1403b0ff.gif

Still way off getting confidence in where the low will track. ECM the best solution for those in the south, GFS better for those in the north in terms of snowfall generated by this low.

Nearer in time, not often one sees an upside down low (kink in isobars) and frontal configuration, as shown just east of Scotland / NE England on the T+72 fax for 00z Tuesday

PPVK89.thumb.gif.6897638c873b3b9f5989ab9f9918e104.gif

Prefer the ECM ! Our local forecast is snow Tues, sun Wed,  and sleet ( nearly did a Violet Elizabeth when I saw that it had been looking good last night) on Thursday for CI seems they follow GFS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Smartie said:

Reminds me of Feb 91, that had a band of snow moving west with the push of cold air, I remember it well. 

The precip charts do not suggest any organised snow along the cold front moving in from the east Sunday night, more of a marker to a change to much deep cold air moving in behind, though we do see snow showers pep up behind the front - as the deeper cold steepens lapse rates and causes the lake effect.

Edited by Nick F
  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As far as the intensity of this upcoming siberian beast is concerned, there is absolutely no downgrade, it looks phenomenal nationwide and snow will become very disruptive as well as ice days, penetrating frosts and severe wind-chill as the isobars tighten.(Easterly winds strengthen)..expect severe drifting, I love snow drifts!!

Ps..I hope cornwall isn't wiped off the map as i really enjoy watching doc martin!!:shok::D:cold-emoji:

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I see the the GFS for the end of the week and thought nooooo 😁. 

I see the UKMO at for the end of the week and thought noooooo 😁. 

But then I see this from the ECM for the next 8 days 😲

IMG_1771.PNG

IMG_1772.PNG

IMG_1773.PNG

IMG_1774.PNG

IMG_1775.PNG

IMG_1776.PNG

IMG_1777.PNG

IMG_1778.PNG

IMG_1779.PNG

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM on the cold side of its members, but all the same, lovely graph for cold! 

4EA26E30-3C4D-4418-AD5D-F818A2BE5364.thumb.png.068004905401df6c364b4ac6f80eb42b.png

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just don't know what to say this morning except for wonderful, amazing and epic !  What we have all hoped for for many years is now about to come to fruition. It is so good reading everyones informative and exciting posts regarding the latest synopics. Either route this spell takes  ECM or GFS looks amazing, depending on where you live. Can' wait till next week !

 

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EDM1-144.GIF?24-12   EDM1-192.GIF?24-12   EDM1-240.GIF?24-12

Low pressure tending to stay south of the UK, but still with the risk of snow into the south on frontal systems whilst further north showers will continue to push into windward coasts.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A quick question? Could it be that the Gfs is struggling with with the signal for the second ssw? Surely that must be coming into play for the timeframes in question?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Ecm Mean supportive of uk wide snow on Friday, with everywhere comfortably in low enough uppers. :)

EDM0-144 (2).gif

Not to be pedantic but I'd say for us on the south coast it's not 'comfortable' as you suggest! The margins are quite fine, I don't see the low getting as far north as suggested anyway personally.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well this sums up my luck...The coldest spell for 10 years or whenever....and I've got my very own warm sector!!!! Anyone tell haw far north any ppn gets on ecm?

 

Screenshot_20180224-080807.jpg

Edited by KTtom
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m still a little concerned re the trend for that low coming up from the Bay of Biscay on Friday. The GFS has been hinting at bringing in slightly less  cold air in with it for the last few days and I wonder if the UKMO is picking up on it also. ECM for me is a blinder! And one that has been steadfast in holding onto the colder air past next weekend with a better angle for the Low. 

 Interesting times coming up, one that I hope brings a 80s style snow event to Cornwall and the whole of the snow starved south.

 

wayno 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting looking at the ECM Spreads, seems a fair few want to take the low further North than was the case yesterday, taking all into account the sweet spot could well be the Midlands, with rain towards the south coast. Obviously still time to change.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Well this sums up my luck...The coldest spell for 10 years or whenever....and I've got my very own warm sector! Anyone tell haw far north any ppn gets on ecm?

 

Screenshot_20180224-080807.jpg

That ‘warm sector’ is colder than the cold sector we’ve seen in many snow events :-)

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From that system at the end of the week I think the highest snow risk is for the south, with a moderate risk for central areas and a low risk further north. Increased shower activity to the north of the system as the isobars tighten. Only a low risk of it becoming too marginal in the far south. That low is not going to go very far north and the cold is not going to be broken down anytime soon. It just won’t happen.

Edited by MattStoke
  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Not to be pedantic but I'd say for us on the south coast it's not 'comfortable' as you suggest! The margins are quite fine, I don't see the low getting as far north as suggested anyway personally.

Not as comfortable for those in the south but with that comes the chance of very heavy snowfalls. I'd take that chance all day! Looking at the charts the cold weather would soon return anyway so a good chance of heavy snow followed by more freezing weather. Lovely!

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, That ECM said:

The gfs control is about as good as it gets for balancing the track of lows and keeping cold enough 850s for everyone. Will it be like that? 

So why do we keep getting op runs showing different...a  bit worrying it keeps consistently blowing up that Iberian low. Perhaps we should all just ignore it and follow the ECM and UKMO instead! :)

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Well this sums up my luck...The coldest spell for 10 years or whenever....and I've got my very own warm sector!!!! Anyone tell haw far north any ppn gets on ecm?

 

Screenshot_20180224-080807.jpg

It’s a small low pressure system going west. Could be good for you 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

So why do we keep getting op runs showing different...a  bit worrying it keeps consistently blowing up that Iberian low. Perhaps we should all just ignore it and follow the ECM and UKMO instead! :)

Because it's t144 plus and it's a variance on a theme. Ignore nothing and watch with interest.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

From that system at the end of the week I think the highest snow risk is for the south, with a moderate risk for central areas and a low risk further north. Increased shower activity to the north of the system as the isobars tighten. Only a low risk of it becoming too marginal in the far south. That low is not going to go very far north and the cold is not going to be broken down anytime soon. It just won’t happen.

Quite often you see the track of these systems often trend further south within the final 5 days. 2013 springs to mind. If so should keep the colder weather with us for longer and give us guys down south some much needed excitement.

 

wayno 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Well this sums up my luck...The coldest spell for 10 years or whenever....and I've got my very own warm sector!!!! Anyone tell haw far north any ppn gets on ecm?

 

Screenshot_20180224-080807.jpg

To be honest mate, you want that warm sector, it indicates that there is a significant difference between 2 air masses = precipitation forming i.e only snow in this setup!

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

ECM on the cold side of its members, but all the same, lovely graph for cold! 

4EA26E30-3C4D-4418-AD5D-F818A2BE5364.thumb.png.068004905401df6c364b4ac6f80eb42b.png

Looks like a cold outlier to me

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Well this sums up my luck...The coldest spell for 10 years or whenever....and I've got my very own warm sector!!!! Anyone tell haw far north any ppn gets on ecm?

 

Screenshot_20180224-080807.jpg

Probably one of the coldest warm sectors to ever cross the UK :rofl:

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Looks like a cold outlier to me

Outlier might be a bit harsh, it’s got support, cold end of ensembles yes, outlier I don’t think so.

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...