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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


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Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

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Such is the UK weather!! 

While the first bit of our cold spell has counted down on the models beautifully for two weeks, the part after Thursday is going to be uncertain until probably T48!

Such incredibly fine margins whether the low stalls more against the block or whether it alligns itself to push the cold away from southern areas at least but maybe all within a few days after.

My bets are the GFS will slightly back off but might have to wait a couple of days before this shows. It almost always overdoes lows between D5 and D7, and that's why it gets the mild so far north. It's ensembles will probably do the same.

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Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Well, the GFS operationals continue to be determined to end the deep cold across the south later in the week / next weekend, however, the  ECM continues the deep cold flow across all the UK.

GEFS postage stamps show a range of positions of the low next Friday and Saturday, the GEFS MSLP has the low just or over the far south of UK:

loop.thumb.gif.df7a9f595033ac4db9f673ba1403b0ff.gif

Still way off getting confidence in where the low will track. ECM the best solution for those in the south, GFS better for those in the north in terms of snowfall generated by this low.

Nearer in time, not often one sees an upside down low (kink in isobars) and frontal configuration, as shown just east of Scotland / NE England on the T+72 fax for 00z Tuesday

PPVK89.thumb.gif.6897638c873b3b9f5989ab9f9918e104.gif

Prefer the ECM ! Our local forecast is snow Tues, sun Wed,  and sleet ( nearly did a Violet Elizabeth when I saw that it had been looking good last night) on Thursday for CI seems they follow GFS

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6 minutes ago, Smartie said:

Reminds me of Feb 91, that had a band of snow moving west with the push of cold air, I remember it well. 

The precip charts do not suggest any organised snow along the cold front moving in from the east Sunday night, more of a marker to a change to much deep cold air moving in behind, though we do see snow showers pep up behind the front - as the deeper cold steepens lapse rates and causes the lake effect.

Edited by Nick F
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Just don't know what to say this morning except for wonderful, amazing and epic !  What we have all hoped for for many years is now about to come to fruition. It is so good reading everyones informative and exciting posts regarding the latest synopics. Either route this spell takes  ECM or GFS looks amazing, depending on where you live. Can' wait till next week !

 

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8 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Ecm Mean supportive of uk wide snow on Friday, with everywhere comfortably in low enough uppers. :)

EDM0-144 (2).gif

Not to be pedantic but I'd say for us on the south coast it's not 'comfortable' as you suggest! The margins are quite fine, I don't see the low getting as far north as suggested anyway personally.

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Well this sums up my luck...The coldest spell for 10 years or whenever....and I've got my very own warm sector!!!! Anyone tell haw far north any ppn gets on ecm?

 

Screenshot_20180224-080807.jpg

Edited by KTtom
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I’m still a little concerned re the trend for that low coming up from the Bay of Biscay on Friday. The GFS has been hinting at bringing in slightly less  cold air in with it for the last few days and I wonder if the UKMO is picking up on it also. ECM for me is a blinder! And one that has been steadfast in holding onto the colder air past next weekend with a better angle for the Low. 

 Interesting times coming up, one that I hope brings a 80s style snow event to Cornwall and the whole of the snow starved south.

 

wayno 

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Interesting looking at the ECM Spreads, seems a fair few want to take the low further North than was the case yesterday, taking all into account the sweet spot could well be the Midlands, with rain towards the south coast. Obviously still time to change.

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3 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Well this sums up my luck...The coldest spell for 10 years or whenever....and I've got my very own warm sector! Anyone tell haw far north any ppn gets on ecm?

 

Screenshot_20180224-080807.jpg

That ‘warm sector’ is colder than the cold sector we’ve seen in many snow events :-)

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From that system at the end of the week I think the highest snow risk is for the south, with a moderate risk for central areas and a low risk further north. Increased shower activity to the north of the system as the isobars tighten. Only a low risk of it becoming too marginal in the far south. That low is not going to go very far north and the cold is not going to be broken down anytime soon. It just won’t happen.

Edited by MattStoke
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4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Not to be pedantic but I'd say for us on the south coast it's not 'comfortable' as you suggest! The margins are quite fine, I don't see the low getting as far north as suggested anyway personally.

Not as comfortable for those in the south but with that comes the chance of very heavy snowfalls. I'd take that chance all day! Looking at the charts the cold weather would soon return anyway so a good chance of heavy snow followed by more freezing weather. Lovely!

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53 minutes ago, That ECM said:

The gfs control is about as good as it gets for balancing the track of lows and keeping cold enough 850s for everyone. Will it be like that? 

So why do we keep getting op runs showing different...a  bit worrying it keeps consistently blowing up that Iberian low. Perhaps we should all just ignore it and follow the ECM and UKMO instead! :)

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10 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Well this sums up my luck...The coldest spell for 10 years or whenever....and I've got my very own warm sector!!!! Anyone tell haw far north any ppn gets on ecm?

 

Screenshot_20180224-080807.jpg

It’s a small low pressure system going west. Could be good for you 

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1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

So why do we keep getting op runs showing different...a  bit worrying it keeps consistently blowing up that Iberian low. Perhaps we should all just ignore it and follow the ECM and UKMO instead! :)

Because it's t144 plus and it's a variance on a theme. Ignore nothing and watch with interest.

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5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

From that system at the end of the week I think the highest snow risk is for the south, with a moderate risk for central areas and a low risk further north. Increased shower activity to the north of the system as the isobars tighten. Only a low risk of it becoming too marginal in the far south. That low is not going to go very far north and the cold is not going to be broken down anytime soon. It just won’t happen.

Quite often you see the track of these systems often trend further south within the final 5 days. 2013 springs to mind. If so should keep the colder weather with us for longer and give us guys down south some much needed excitement.

 

wayno 

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11 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Well this sums up my luck...The coldest spell for 10 years or whenever....and I've got my very own warm sector!!!! Anyone tell haw far north any ppn gets on ecm?

 

Screenshot_20180224-080807.jpg

To be honest mate, you want that warm sector, it indicates that there is a significant difference between 2 air masses = precipitation forming i.e only snow in this setup!

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16 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Well this sums up my luck...The coldest spell for 10 years or whenever....and I've got my very own warm sector!!!! Anyone tell haw far north any ppn gets on ecm?

 

Screenshot_20180224-080807.jpg

Probably one of the coldest warm sectors to ever cross the UK :rofl:

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