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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
    6 minutes ago, Smartie said:

    Reminds me of Feb 91, that had a band of snow moving west with the push of cold air, I remember it well. 

    The precip charts do not suggest any organised snow along the cold front moving in from the east Sunday night, more of a marker to a change to much deep cold air moving in behind, though we do see snow showers pep up behind the front - as the deeper cold steepens lapse rates and causes the lake effect.

    Edited by Nick F
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    Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

    Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

    Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    As far as the intensity of this upcoming siberian beast is concerned, there is absolutely no downgrade, it looks phenomenal nationwide and snow will become very disruptive as well as ice days, penetrating frosts and severe wind-chill as the isobars tighten.(Easterly winds strengthen)..expect severe drifting, I love snow drifts!!

    Ps..I hope cornwall isn't wiped off the map as i really enjoy watching doc martin!!:shok::D:cold-emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    I see the the GFS for the end of the week and thought nooooo ?. 

    I see the UKMO at for the end of the week and thought noooooo ?. 

    But then I see this from the ECM for the next 8 days ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    ECM on the cold side of its members, but all the same, lovely graph for cold! 

    4EA26E30-3C4D-4418-AD5D-F818A2BE5364.thumb.png.068004905401df6c364b4ac6f80eb42b.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything
  • Location: Isle of Man

    Just don't know what to say this morning except for wonderful, amazing and epic !  What we have all hoped for for many years is now about to come to fruition. It is so good reading everyones informative and exciting posts regarding the latest synopics. Either route this spell takes  ECM or GFS looks amazing, depending on where you live. Can' wait till next week !

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    EDM1-144.GIF?24-12   EDM1-192.GIF?24-12   EDM1-240.GIF?24-12

    Low pressure tending to stay south of the UK, but still with the risk of snow into the south on frontal systems whilst further north showers will continue to push into windward coasts.

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    Posted
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.

    A quick question? Could it be that the Gfs is struggling with with the signal for the second ssw? Surely that must be coming into play for the timeframes in question?

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
    8 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

    Ecm Mean supportive of uk wide snow on Friday, with everywhere comfortably in low enough uppers. :)

    EDM0-144 (2).gif

    Not to be pedantic but I'd say for us on the south coast it's not 'comfortable' as you suggest! The margins are quite fine, I don't see the low getting as far north as suggested anyway personally.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

    Well this sums up my luck...The coldest spell for 10 years or whenever....and I've got my very own warm sector!!!! Anyone tell haw far north any ppn gets on ecm?

     

    Screenshot_20180224-080807.jpg

    Edited by KTtom
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    Posted
  • Location: Truro
  • Weather Preferences: winter and summer
  • Location: Truro

    I’m still a little concerned re the trend for that low coming up from the Bay of Biscay on Friday. The GFS has been hinting at bringing in slightly less  cold air in with it for the last few days and I wonder if the UKMO is picking up on it also. ECM for me is a blinder! And one that has been steadfast in holding onto the colder air past next weekend with a better angle for the Low. 

     Interesting times coming up, one that I hope brings a 80s style snow event to Cornwall and the whole of the snow starved south.

     

    wayno 

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    Interesting looking at the ECM Spreads, seems a fair few want to take the low further North than was the case yesterday, taking all into account the sweet spot could well be the Midlands, with rain towards the south coast. Obviously still time to change.

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    Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
    3 minutes ago, KTtom said:

    Well this sums up my luck...The coldest spell for 10 years or whenever....and I've got my very own warm sector! Anyone tell haw far north any ppn gets on ecm?

     

    Screenshot_20180224-080807.jpg

    That ‘warm sector’ is colder than the cold sector we’ve seen in many snow events :-)

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

    From that system at the end of the week I think the highest snow risk is for the south, with a moderate risk for central areas and a low risk further north. Increased shower activity to the north of the system as the isobars tighten. Only a low risk of it becoming too marginal in the far south. That low is not going to go very far north and the cold is not going to be broken down anytime soon. It just won’t happen.

    Edited by MattStoke
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    Posted
  • Location: North Yate, South Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: North Yate, South Glos
    4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    Not to be pedantic but I'd say for us on the south coast it's not 'comfortable' as you suggest! The margins are quite fine, I don't see the low getting as far north as suggested anyway personally.

    Not as comfortable for those in the south but with that comes the chance of very heavy snowfalls. I'd take that chance all day! Looking at the charts the cold weather would soon return anyway so a good chance of heavy snow followed by more freezing weather. Lovely!

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    53 minutes ago, That ECM said:

    The gfs control is about as good as it gets for balancing the track of lows and keeping cold enough 850s for everyone. Will it be like that? 

    So why do we keep getting op runs showing different...a  bit worrying it keeps consistently blowing up that Iberian low. Perhaps we should all just ignore it and follow the ECM and UKMO instead! :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
    10 minutes ago, KTtom said:

    Well this sums up my luck...The coldest spell for 10 years or whenever....and I've got my very own warm sector!!!! Anyone tell haw far north any ppn gets on ecm?

     

    Screenshot_20180224-080807.jpg

    It’s a small low pressure system going west. Could be good for you 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

    So why do we keep getting op runs showing different...a  bit worrying it keeps consistently blowing up that Iberian low. Perhaps we should all just ignore it and follow the ECM and UKMO instead! :)

    Because it's t144 plus and it's a variance on a theme. Ignore nothing and watch with interest.

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    Posted
  • Location: Truro
  • Weather Preferences: winter and summer
  • Location: Truro
    5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    From that system at the end of the week I think the highest snow risk is for the south, with a moderate risk for central areas and a low risk further north. Increased shower activity to the north of the system as the isobars tighten. Only a low risk of it becoming too marginal in the far south. That low is not going to go very far north and the cold is not going to be broken down anytime soon. It just won’t happen.

    Quite often you see the track of these systems often trend further south within the final 5 days. 2013 springs to mind. If so should keep the colder weather with us for longer and give us guys down south some much needed excitement.

     

    wayno 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
    11 minutes ago, KTtom said:

    Well this sums up my luck...The coldest spell for 10 years or whenever....and I've got my very own warm sector!!!! Anyone tell haw far north any ppn gets on ecm?

     

    Screenshot_20180224-080807.jpg

    To be honest mate, you want that warm sector, it indicates that there is a significant difference between 2 air masses = precipitation forming i.e only snow in this setup!

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    16 minutes ago, KTtom said:

    Well this sums up my luck...The coldest spell for 10 years or whenever....and I've got my very own warm sector!!!! Anyone tell haw far north any ppn gets on ecm?

     

    Screenshot_20180224-080807.jpg

    Probably one of the coldest warm sectors to ever cross the UK :rofl:

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    4 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

    Looks like a cold outlier to me

    Outlier might be a bit harsh, it’s got support, cold end of ensembles yes, outlier I don’t think so.

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    Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

    With such a cold airmass that’s built up there’s no way that low is just going to move north like it’s not there, it’s going to hit a brick wall and stall before moving off east imo. I’d say the low itself will go from say a line of Cornwall across the wash area with bands of snow wrapped around it. Just my thoughts anyway

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

    Thank you!

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