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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    Just now, essexweather said:

    No suprises with the 00Z ECM this morning. Backs up the last MOGREPS run with the cold affecting majority of NW Europe inc. UK through to second week of March. Solid support as per last half dozen runs.

    Any milder interlude in the South would only be temporary with the colder uppers quickly returning post-low.

    Do you know how far north they see that system progressing? Obviously will chop and change at this range but would be interesting to know.

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    Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

    Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

    Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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    Posted
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, wind and summer storms
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan
    1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

    Hi mate ^^ see my post above-

    The UKMO track was appearing to go North @144 however if its just doing an orbit like ECM where it comes up & kisses the SW then is pushed back SW again thats fine as long as theres eastward energy over France holding the continental flow ahead-

    UKMO 144 is slightly warmer @144 than ECM but margins are fine for all-

    S

    Thank you for taking the time to answer. Living in the Heads of the valley I'm actually getting a little bit excited now. It's been a pretty decent winter here thus far but if it plays out as the ecm suggests we will be rivalling Dec 2010 where we had just over a foot of level snow! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh
    13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    As well as the SW you got places like the NE who are also under deep snow & continues @168 - !

    Agree Steve, a lot of focus on the low pressure system at day 5-6  (understandably so) but the North Sea snow machine is in full effect in NE England and E Scotland with deep lapse rates creating heavy showers and strong winds blowing these well inland ... non stop for over a week !

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    Posted
  • Location: NG16 -- North Nottinghamshire
  • Location: NG16 -- North Nottinghamshire

    Good morning

    struggling to make heads or tails of these charts !

    can anyone shed any light on north Midlands , Nottinghamshire approx 80 miles inland from the wash 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl
    2 minutes ago, tyson99 said:

    Good morning

    struggling to make heads or tails of these charts !

    can anyone shed any light on north Midlands , Nottinghamshire approx 80 miles inland from the wash 

     

    Depends for what timing, but the charts are showing you remaining very cold (and potentially snowy) for some time

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    Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
    24 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Well the ECM is superb

    Blizzard for many - Cornwall wiped off the map - then back into the upper air cold pool & heavy snow showers @168 !

    41C93D59-7EA7-4AE9-A3FD-8490BA734819.thumb.png.6fe8964441a8c7a0bee9947ca0a8ab35.png

    Look at the kinks in those bars. Steve I’m gonna but you a charger for your birthday ?

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    Posted
  • Location: NG16 -- North Nottinghamshire
  • Location: NG16 -- North Nottinghamshire
    2 minutes ago, Great Plum said:

    Depends for what timing, but the charts are showing you remaining very cold (and potentially snowy) for some time

    Thanks for replying !

    from my little knowledge of the charts I don't expect much / if any snow accumulation for my location 

    Am I correct in thinking if snow is to reach inland ( 80 miles inland from the wash ) the "low" needs to move a lot further north ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    2 minutes ago, tyson99 said:

    Thanks for replying !

    from my little knowledge of the charts I don't expect much / if any snow accumulation for my location 

    Am I correct in thinking if snow is to reach inland ( 80 miles inland from the wash ) the "low" needs to move a lot further north ?

    Models are poor with shower distribution. Expecting heavy snow showers to push further west than the charts show given the parameters. Only really areas to the west of high ground missing out, but even there a few showers are possible.

    Edited by MattStoke
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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    GFS ensembles are on viagra this morning with a fast rise & 'warm up' after a 96 hour or cold spell, I simply do not buy the GFS in these situation, time and time again it's been proven dreadful in these sypnotics and given the ECM consistency in keeping cold in place this is more likely IMO.

     

    Not discounting it completely as that would be silly but I feel given it's bias to smashing cold air out the way with ease and overdoing northwards progression of lows it's unlikely.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales
    18 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

    Yikes. ECM looks the best possible run yet for the south and southwest of England.

    Surely the ECM would see snow right upto South Wales and central England from that low pressure?

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    The gfs control is about as good as it gets for balancing the track of lows and keeping cold enough 850s for everyone. Will it be like that? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    4 minutes ago, PompeyFC said:

    Surely the ECM would see snow right upto South Wales and central England from that low pressure?

    Yeah i thought that to think the gfs is best for the midlands and maybe the ecm has the low abit to far south the central england??

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Mild winters, wet & windy summers
  • Location: Hampshire
    12 minutes ago, PompeyFC said:

    Surely the ECM would see snow right upto South Wales and central England from that low pressure?

    Yes, South Wales would be in the sweet spot, as per Jan 82, I was there?

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    44 minutes ago, essexweather said:

    No further north than Coleshill was mentioned on the earlier briefing.

    Sorry. To clarify, is that the centre of the low or how far the precipitation gets?

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Well, the GFS operationals continue to be determined to end the deep cold across the south later in the week / next weekend, however, the  ECM continues the deep cold flow across all the UK.

    GEFS postage stamps show a range of positions of the low next Friday and Saturday, the GEFS MSLP has the low just south or over the far south of UK in the means:

    loop.thumb.gif.df7a9f595033ac4db9f673ba1403b0ff.gif <------ click to animate

    Still way off getting confidence in where the low will track. ECM the best solution for those in the south, GFS better for those in the north in terms of snowfall generated by this low.

    Nearer in time, not often one sees an upside down low (kink in isobars) and frontal configuration, as shown just east of Scotland / NE England on the T+72 fax for 00z Tuesday

    PPVK89.thumb.gif.6897638c873b3b9f5989ab9f9918e104.gif

    Edited by Nick F
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    Morning each :)

    Things look very nice this morning for the next 5 days with no downgrades for what could be a repeat and best setup since Feb 1991,maybe better as that one was cut short by low pressure moving in from the southwest

    Also dam line of 510 will be over us by Wednesday which is very rare indeed ,as for snow ,moderate falls for most and heavy falls where the troughs and streamers form in the very unstable air which will be over us by Wednesday

    Weather will be stealing all the headlines next week

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
    21 minutes ago, SnowMcSnowFace said:

    Love the look of the cold front on the Fax at +48 rolling in behind the 528 dam

    20180224.0541.PPVI89.png

    Reminds me of Feb 91, that had a band of snow moving west with the push of cold air, I remember it well. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Such is the UK weather!! 

    While the first bit of our cold spell has counted down on the models beautifully for two weeks, the part after Thursday is going to be uncertain until probably T48!

    Such incredibly fine margins whether the low stalls more against the block or whether it alligns itself to push the cold away from southern areas at least but maybe all within a few days after.

    My bets are the GFS will slightly back off but might have to wait a couple of days before this shows. It almost always overdoes lows between D5 and D7, and that's why it gets the mild so far north. It's ensembles will probably do the same.

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    3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    Well, the GFS operationals continue to be determined to end the deep cold across the south later in the week / next weekend, however, the  ECM continues the deep cold flow across all the UK.

    GEFS postage stamps show a range of positions of the low next Friday and Saturday, the GEFS MSLP has the low just or over the far south of UK:

    loop.thumb.gif.df7a9f595033ac4db9f673ba1403b0ff.gif

    Still way off getting confidence in where the low will track. ECM the best solution for those in the south, GFS better for those in the north in terms of snowfall generated by this low.

    Nearer in time, not often one sees an upside down low (kink in isobars) and frontal configuration, as shown just east of Scotland / NE England on the T+72 fax for 00z Tuesday

    PPVK89.thumb.gif.6897638c873b3b9f5989ab9f9918e104.gif

    Prefer the ECM ! Our local forecast is snow Tues, sun Wed,  and sleet ( nearly did a Violet Elizabeth when I saw that it had been looking good last night) on Thursday for CI seems they follow GFS

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

    Thank you!

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    • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

      UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2021-05-13 09:41:14 Valid: 13/05/2021 0600 - 14/05/2021 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - WEDS 13TH MAY 2021 Click here for the full forecast

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