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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

Posted Images

UKMO puts the low in the worst possible position for England as it will quickly mix the cold out for everyone -Ireland / Scotland may hang on to the cold air -

The ICON is really what we need for sustained cold -

First set of overnights that have been poor - however if thats what happens then well still 5 - 6 days of special weather ahead of it - would just be a shame to go out with mild southerlies -

Let see what ECM brings - plenty of time for it all to change :)

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO puts the low in the worst possible position for England as it will quickly mix the cold out for everyone -Ireland / Scotland may hang on to the cold air -

The ICON is really what we need for sustained cold -

First set of overnights that have been poor - however if thats what happens then well still 5 - 6 days of special weather ahead of it - would just be a shame to go out with mild southerlies -

Let see what ECM brings - plenty of time for it all to change :)

get the cold air in first and it could be hard to shift - personally I think the models are overplaying the northern extend of the lows at the end of the week . . . 

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GFS 5 day mean is now @-16 for EA coast

2988EF2D-38A5-4961-8306-CB6D53AE0AA8.thumb.png.a791c270d09a0b555ddd97891293c5b1.png

The mean @ day 6 / 7 gets up to -4c for the S/SE with some mixing -8c line around the midlands

Other than the extreme SE its great to be fair :)

 

Edited by Steve Murr
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Slight downgrade on the longevity as said to maybe a 6 or 7 day event, but I have noticed a lot over the years that the 0z runs normally are Debbie downers only to pick up as the day goes by, so let's see if this is still the case.

Still spectacularly snowy and a small shift to who gets the heaviest of stuff but still pretty much a nationwide event.

S80224-05162679.jpg

Edited by geordiekev
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The milder air only really gets into the far south on the GFS, after the low has gone. That system would be all snow thanks to the very cold air at the surface and low dew points. Temperatures still struggling to get above freezing for most next weekend. Looks very good to me.

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54 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

GFS buries Central and Southern UK with a 2 day blizzard from that low. Thought the UKMO looked similar.

Totally agree...great runs from gfs and ukmo for widespread snow...really tighteing up the isobars later in the week ahead of the snow as it inches north..probably going to be a ot of imby posts over this...those in the east and south east not so keen, but western and central areas it' the best set up for something more interesting than dry and very cold conditions...granted it' a risky set up but it will be spring by then after all.

Edited by KTtom
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gfs-0-198.png?0

As some have already pointed out, It wouldn't seem likely for this low to track much further north as this air will be frigid and likely keep it in the channel. Plus with surface cold I still agree unless you're in the far south west, you'd see a significant amount of snow. Either way Monday-Friday look incredible 

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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Nerve wreckng stuff at 144 this morning!!

UKMO 144

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

850S

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

Wheres the low going is the question..

Into the hearts and minds of Southerners. That low might even get a nickname once its payload is realised. 

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1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

ECM1-120.GIF?24-12

Am not liking this new trend at all tbh 

All 3 agree on bringing the low so close that the cold will surely mix out. Somewhere will get pasted but all of a sudden the synoptic are so so and following the isobars leads to Malaga instead of russia?

Don't they traverse the 'Siberian' bit of the 'vortex' before reaching us?

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3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

ECM1-120.GIF?24-12

Am not liking this new trend at all tbh 

All 3 agree on bringing the low so close that the cold will surely mix out. Somewhere will get pasted but all of a sudden the synoptic are so so and following the isobars leads to Malaga instead of russia?

I still think it's too early. They won't really know until Weds/Thurs once the cold is entrenched. Even if there's rain, it would likely turn back to snow as the low tracked east.I think the models will really struggle with this for the days to come

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