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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:

Thank you!

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Yes the beast is coming, however the models are not really in the reliable yet to resemble something that may actually verify as regards snow and where it may fall yet. They are trying not to panic people I guess.

IMHO this is no ordinary situation developing and they have access to better models than we do in here. I expected the warnings to start this evening :)


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Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

John, BB6263 posted the coldest 850 temps charts for pretty much all the major cold spells including that one since the 19th century - I think it's on P104 of this thread.  I found it interesting that if Thursday, which is 1 March!, verifies as some of the models, you have to go back to January 1987 to find colder air reaching the UK.

thanks for that Mike I will take a look

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12 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Most people have smart phones that access the internet. What’s being on a phone got the do with anything? 

I access meteociel on my phone. ?

Your regional details don't show up on a phone, well, not on mine anyway.

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13 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

March 2013 is springing to mid right now, we haven't seen the prospect of such synoptics since then. A very long drawn easterly from the depths of Russia, with cross easterly polar flow all the way to North American coast, these are rare synoptics.

Its now a case of watching the embedded cold air inch its way into the UK day by day. Ice days certainly probable for many come Tuesday-Thursday despite the time of year. Indeed the last time we had an ice day in March was in 2013 on the 11th. 

Another year that springs to mind is Feb 2005, but unlike then the models are suggesting a much potent cold airstream with heights retrogressing to Greenland.

Jan 1996 also springs to mind, indeed the synoptics on offer for 28 Feb are the same as those of 26 Jan 1996 when we received 5 inches from a disturbance in the flow, not often we see such snow from an easterly.

There are differences between GFS and ECM for later in the week, GFS showing a disturbance to our SW moving NE into central parts of the UK, this would no doubt give heavy disruptive snowfall. ECM showing less in the way of atlantic influence and instead just a bitter cold NE flow with snow showers but lots of dry weather as well.

If you want locked in cold, then the model offer today is what you want to see, and whilst from a personal perspective I'd prefer to have seen these synoptics a few weeks back, its still pleasing to see that we can still get them. 

I get where you are coming from but think this cold period holds far more in the offing than 2013.

The 2013 episode was never going to elongate whereas this cold spell will as I think you know.

Edited by winterof79
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Now for the pub run.  I think that with the extreme cold incoming nailed, attention will shift to the potential channel low, shown on ECM 12z at T 168.  Good to see ICON and ARPEGE in line on the earlier stuff, by the way.  

I'm also interested in the peak depth of cold on Thursday, it could be the coldest air to make it to our shores in over 30 years.  

Roll on GFS!

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Just had a look at the night temps in Berlin through to Sunday week.  I chose Berlin as it is obviously east of our east.....and the current and projected temps are well below zero for the next 9 days.  Anyone on here that can predict those temps continuing through to our shores?  If so, we’ll still be in the freezer in two weeks time........

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22 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

The ICON finally waking up. Frequent heavy snow showers for all eastern counties. 


That's an interesting choice of text, to me that's nationwide.

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GFS is trying something new in mid range here. we get our easterly and blizzard from South West but is it going to keep pressure higher to our north rather than Greenland being main high here


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