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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


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Posted
  • Location: Boar's Hill, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting weather
  • Location: Boar's Hill, Oxon
    12 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

    Most people have smart phones that access the internet. What’s being on a phone got the do with anything? 

    I access meteociel on my phone. ?

    Your regional details don't show up on a phone, well, not on mine anyway.

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    Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

    Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

    Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    ^going back to school^

    -explained-

    THERE ARE 4 SET SUITES PER 24 HR-ANM..

    THE GFS HAS OUTPUT OF 4 SET-PER- SUITES- OF 'NOTE' IS OF NORMAL CONSUMPTION- OF DECIPHER(UNRAVEL) IS THE OOZ/12Z..

     

    HOWEVER..ON THE UNSUBSTANSUITED DYNAMICS-REVERSE NOTIONS/AT NORTHERN HEM-/AND, THERMODYNAMICS OF SSW(STRATOSPHERIC WARMING)..

    THE GFS 18Z..

    IS UNUSALLY- THE REVERSE OUT-ITSELF...I-E..

    THE DRUNK RUN IS WAVERED BETWEEN  ITS RELATED SUITES..00z/6z/12/18z..

    18z is running the show currently!!!

    OMG.. GIVE ME A LARGE BEVERAGE ...AND QUICK!!!

     

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    13 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    March 2013 is springing to mid right now, we haven't seen the prospect of such synoptics since then. A very long drawn easterly from the depths of Russia, with cross easterly polar flow all the way to North American coast, these are rare synoptics.

    Its now a case of watching the embedded cold air inch its way into the UK day by day. Ice days certainly probable for many come Tuesday-Thursday despite the time of year. Indeed the last time we had an ice day in March was in 2013 on the 11th. 

    Another year that springs to mind is Feb 2005, but unlike then the models are suggesting a much potent cold airstream with heights retrogressing to Greenland.

    Jan 1996 also springs to mind, indeed the synoptics on offer for 28 Feb are the same as those of 26 Jan 1996 when we received 5 inches from a disturbance in the flow, not often we see such snow from an easterly.

    There are differences between GFS and ECM for later in the week, GFS showing a disturbance to our SW moving NE into central parts of the UK, this would no doubt give heavy disruptive snowfall. ECM showing less in the way of atlantic influence and instead just a bitter cold NE flow with snow showers but lots of dry weather as well.

    If you want locked in cold, then the model offer today is what you want to see, and whilst from a personal perspective I'd prefer to have seen these synoptics a few weeks back, its still pleasing to see that we can still get them. 

    I get where you are coming from but think this cold period holds far more in the offing than 2013.

    The 2013 episode was never going to elongate whereas this cold spell will as I think you know.

    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    The ICON finally waking up. Frequent heavy snow showers for all eastern counties. 

    icon-0-120.png?23-18

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Now for the pub run.  I think that with the extreme cold incoming nailed, attention will shift to the potential channel low, shown on ECM 12z at T 168.  Good to see ICON and ARPEGE in line on the earlier stuff, by the way.  

    I'm also interested in the peak depth of cold on Thursday, it could be the coldest air to make it to our shores in over 30 years.  

    Roll on GFS!

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    JMA with a 1080mb 'high' over Greenland that has to be an error??

     

    J192-21.GIF

    J192-7.GIF

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Liversedge, West Yorkshire ASL : 74m
  • Location: Liversedge, West Yorkshire ASL : 74m

    Looks like the first snow showers starting to reach eastern most areas by Sunday tea time.

    GFSOPUK18_48_43.png

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    Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, about 12 miles from Norwich
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, cold, snow, and cold snowy snow
  • Location: South Norfolk, about 12 miles from Norwich

    Just had a look at the night temps in Berlin through to Sunday week.  I chose Berlin as it is obviously east of our east.....and the current and projected temps are well below zero for the next 9 days.  Anyone on here that can predict those temps continuing through to our shores?  If so, we’ll still be in the freezer in two weeks time........

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    Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
    22 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

    The ICON finally waking up. Frequent heavy snow showers for all eastern counties. 

    icon-0-120.png?23-18

    That's an interesting choice of text, to me that's nationwide.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liversedge, West Yorkshire ASL : 74m
  • Location: Liversedge, West Yorkshire ASL : 74m

    Streamers commencing early Monday morning, particularly Thames estuary, wash and humber.

    GFSOPUK18_57_43.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    OK so at T108 it looks like a giant freezing alien purple splodge is headed straight for us. Collision course! Welcome to our shores, my friend. Mind how you go.

    gfs-1-108.png?18

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    Posted
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock

    GFS is trying something new in mid range here. we get our easterly and blizzard from South West but is it going to keep pressure higher to our north rather than Greenland being main high here

    gfsnh-0-120.png?18

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield
    1 minute ago, pages said:

    GFS is trying something new in mid range here. we get our easterly and blizzard from South West but is it going to keep pressure higher to our north rather than Greenland being main high here

    gfsnh-0-120.png?18

    Squeeze? I like it!

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    13 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    Sub 510 dam air across most of England and Wales on the T+120 fax for 12z Wednesday, such a rarity!

    D7BE22D4-21A7-46CC-B4CD-F5A463B5AEC4.thumb.gif.368f719dfdc50b809f08742d1e45c9c2.gif

    GFS 18z already very progressive in relation to the above fax 120 - has the Iberian low as a bigger feature with winds backing SE towards southern England rather than a flatter version as shown here.

    Edited by Froze were the Days
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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

    Thank you!

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