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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:

Thank you!

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Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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With 850’s no higher than -7c even on Southern coasts, that is a total full on white out of epic proportions next Thurs for those under the ppn. Jesus H.

Edited by Southender
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I don't think there will be any mild mush pushing up from the south on this run!:D..fantastic Ecm 12z with another reload from the NE.:cold-emoji:

It's a snow fest ❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

Edited by Frosty.
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Hi all,

Been following this forum for 5 years waiting for the beast to come and bite me like it used to in the 70' and 80's.

Thanks for all the expert posts guys its been a rollercoaster ride, maybe this time it really is true :)


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3 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

A little request regarding comments being made, as many are on their phones at this time and rely on commentary. There have just been more comments about 'for the south' (and that could have been for elsewhere) and, yes, you are looking at your backyard, but these are countrywide events as shown by the charts. 

For the benefit of others - these are 'great for the midlands', 'great for Wales', great for Ireland',  'great for northern England' and, maybe a little less, 'great for Scotland'.

Just to be clear.

Thanks for this. On the East Coast of NI and have no idea how these charts affect us as I use the commentary for understanding. 

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A quite amazing ECM run! The low from the south is gAining traction- high risk for some but high reward at the same time! I am of the mind it would be worth the risk to perhaps see a truly great snowfall event even if it ran the risk of milder air eventually creeping in!

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Sweet Baby Jesus.....it's still going at 192. What an event this would be.  The uppers would still be conducive to  snow nationwide....with an attack from the north east brewing?  Just stunning output, dare I say another upgrade?

ECU1-192.GIF?23-0 ECU0-192.GIF?23-0 ECH1-192.GIF?23-0

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Actually not bad agreement tonight from the models. The ECM looks pretty much spot on to where I was expecting the low to be, big event for the south, especially the SW. It'll be interesting to see what the ECM produces snow depth wise between 144hrs-192hrs.

Details are very difficult at this stage but the broad trend is there. Still more likely to trend south than north BUT at the moment the 12z GFS really wasn't as far out as I first thought. Shift 12z GFA south 100 miles and it looks like ECM and vice versa.

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10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Taking the past 3 12z runs from ECM for March 1st you can see how far north the real cold air has shifted it has gone from hitting northern France to pretty much missing them







The way it's correcting Northwards, it seems that it will shift even more. But we don't want anymore corrections, do we?

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