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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:

Thank you!

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Hey folks - the ECM is rolling out, you know - A MODEL.... which can be DISCUSSED.

Clue there somewhere..

Enjoy the run, don't feed the trolls - try and stay on topic please - am just about as quick on the delete button as I am on F5 when the ECM is at frame 168 and Sylvian is putting 50 cents in the meter..

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Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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Just now, John88B said:

What does the kink in the flow mean please AWD? 

A disturbance in the flow.  Instability resulting in PPN, in this instance some snowfall.

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1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

I am now going to see if I can discover, during the 1962-63 coldest spells if the history is available to show what 850 mb temperatures were. .


John, BB6263 posted the coldest 850 temps charts for pretty much all the major cold spells including that one since the 19th century - I think it's on P104 of this thread.  I found it interesting that if Thursday, which is 1 March!, verifies as some of the models, you have to go back to January 1987 to find colder air reaching the UK.

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Just doesn't stop. Somewhere in the south could experience several days of snowfall off the ECM.

V exciting times ahead could be a year to remember. 

March 2013 for comparison archives-2013-3-11-12-0.png




Edited by SN0WM4N
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Taking the past 3 12z runs from ECM for March 1st you can see how far north the real cold air has shifted it has gone from hitting northern France to pretty much missing them







Edited by Summer Sun
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