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Paul

Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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Just now, parrotingfantasist said:

I don't see any short wave over Finland..

I think he means Norway/Sweden.

Either way, clearly visible on the above quoted chart.

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27 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Nope - Same starting data, same resolution. 

So... What's the difference? 

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2 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Not sure what to make of 120. Seems a shortwave has formed over Finland. Probs delay the proper cold again. Lets see how it progresses

Screenshot_20180220-182340.png

Was there on the 0z 

ECM1-120.GIF?00

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Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

The one next to Norway? Nah that one is fine as the Scandi high and Svalbard high have already linked up :)

Geography a bit out. I meant Norway lol. Just not as clean as it could be I suppose. 

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4 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Not sure what to make of 120. Seems a shortwave has formed over Finland. Probs delay the proper cold again. Lets see how it progresses

Screenshot_20180220-182340.png

Finland next to France now?

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2 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Not sure what to make of 120. Seems a shortwave has formed over Finland. Probs delay the proper cold again. Lets see how it progresses

Screenshot_20180220-182340.png

Look at the 850 temps compared to the 00z.  Much better alignment....incoming deep cold.  I noticed today that temps here dropped to 5c max at 4pm.....continental flow beginning to seep in

 

BFTP

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T144 is fine

watch that pool of -28c air ( approx 488 dam ) - still has a nice wave with it! - its trapped & has nowhere to go -

D031B97E-D069-4000-91FD-1872D7B8E044.thumb.png.30fc74f201a3b49294d96607603bf2fa.png

 

Edited by Steve Murr

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1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

The beast is in at 144 ecm . Good agreement on that now. 😁

IMG_1679.PNG

Preferred the last few EC Det runs to be honest.  Core of the instability & cold is initially heading into France.

Although obviously, in the grand scheme of UK winters, it's another brilliant first half run.

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Quite incredible uppers from the ECM, It`s been sooo long since I was not envious of the USA (sorry wife)

ECH0-144.GIF

EDIT: sorry a bit IMBY but heck, being selfish this time.

Edited by Stuie W

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1 minute ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Geography a bit out. I meant Norway lol. Just not as clean as it could be I suppose. 

As someone with a Geography degree, I'll admit that I winced a bit there...haha

144 looks ok on ECM, just need to lift the NW end of the block further N and feed some better instability underneath towards the UK...but that may come in next frame :)

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Just now, AWD said:

Preferred the last few EC Det runs to be honest.  Core of the instability & cold is initially heading into France.

Although obviously, in the grand scheme of UK winters, it's another brilliant first half run.

Pressure seems quite high as well? 

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1 minute ago, AWD said:

Preferred the last few EC Det runs to be honest.  Core of the instability & cold is initially heading into France.

Although obviously, in the grand scheme of UK winters, it's another brilliant first half run.

I love the psychology of this thread. It's the same as this morning and I bet you loved it then!

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Core of the cold seems tilted more to the southwest than the west on the ECM. But let's see what 168 brings.

ECM0-144.GIF?20-0  gfs-1-144.png?12

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image.thumb.png.457b8d3e6b5b2b2d1480e73397992c38.png

That -28C cold pool Steve referred to has an easy route to the UK. Notice the feature over East Anglia, less cold uppers on Tuesday but snowy!

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Is that a low at 168 

IMG_1680.PNG

Snow maker?

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Is that a low at 168 

IMG_1680.PNG

It is however it does mix out the uppers a tad, still cold enough for snow and reload incoming! 

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Just now, SN0WM4N said:

Snow maker?

Yes surely that is a spell of heavy snow moving east to west.

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Well that's a bit different. Air is a less cold than the GFS at 168. -7 to -8 as opposed to -12 to -14. But it looks like it could be quite a bit snowier with that low off the east coast....Very interesting. Still a lot to be resolved!

image.thumb.png.cc41b2f65a36610db7c2030bf5d54acd.png

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168 is not as cold but still widely below the threshold for snow. Small embedded low crossing bringing widespread snow. Looks like 192 will be on the money with the super duper low uppers.

However, we cant seem to get the substantial uppers within a 168-192 window??? 

Still bitterly cold and snowy nonetheless

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