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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Cheers vizzy what bout T144 ?

UKMO seems to keep the low further south with cold uppers still across the whole country.

E6886865-5E1F-4131-940C-4383CF19EDA2-2835-0000031E2DB94CC0.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
1 minute ago, Tom Jarvis said:

The most likely sort of rain in that system would be freezing rain. That would cause chaos. 

Very good point and something to keep an eye on in regards to this system.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

Well another superb set of runs again, I think the medium range output is going to be defined by this low in the Azores. I expect it to make some progress northwards... however the GFS looks rather strange with no disruption and turning at a 90 degree angle as it moves into Europe.

I reckon it will take more of an ENE path, hopefully it will cross the channel giving me some heavy snow but we shall see. Southampton doesn't usually do too well from easterlies though it got a fair covering during January 1987 and February 1991 from what I've read.

UKMO looks a bit more realistic. Perhaps its just a case of GFS overdoing a dartboard low again :D.

The Greenland high isn't as extensive which increases the chance of the snowy events like this occuring, however a breakdown may come quicker. Still a long way off though and don't be surprised to see a cold high form over Scandi to put up a fight against the incoming low. Deep cold can be hard to shift.

 

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

I’m looking forward to skiing on my ‘Reigate Massif’ newly formed Glacier after the UKMO run 

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL

It's incredibly amusing watching the GFS flail around like a drunk just dying to get some progressiveness into the run...

What's more though is that not even the LP-track of nightmares can warm up the 850s enough to prevent probable blizzard conditions.

gfs-0-192.png?12gfs-1-192.png?12

Still, in the bin for me.

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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
27 minutes ago, AWD said:

Won't the cold upper air start getting mixed out as any potential PPN hits southern counties though?

Looks a risk that some Mediterranean air might get into some southern counties there.

As ever, high risk but high reward if it comes off.  I'd rather have the risk of snowfall than no risk at all.

As long as the low disrupts and stays elongated the warmer uppers shouldn’t bother us.

Edit. MKN beat me to it.

Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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Posted
  • Location: Dartmoor (954 AMSL)
  • Location: Dartmoor (954 AMSL)

I note that on the Met Office synoptic charts for Monday, they have the Azores low pressure filling rapidly. If that continues if it gets to the UK it really will be a damp squib when it does.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Next week looks unbelievable..the Gfs 12z shows max temps of minus 4 / 5 celsius later next week at the start of the meteorological spring plus huge amounts of snow and very deep drifts...gosh it's exciting:D

12_123_uk2mtmp.png

12_123_preciptype.png

12_123_mslp850.png

12_138_uk2mtmpmin.png

12_144_uk2mtmp.png

12_144_mslp850.png

12_144_ukthickness850.png

12_144_ukthickness.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
34 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO 144 much better with continued heavy snow across the UK

8706B89E-9E5E-4AF6-9FBC-636EC0AC3E76.thumb.png.a83420f777f6188692dc3b4fb3cbc735.png

Epic chart to be fair..... Got to be -17 or so in from the east...

 

I want my -50c easterlies....so we are getting there.  I agree re ICON, that could produce new records all round....and by some margin.  But if UKMO has it right.....that will do very nicely indeed.  

I have felt tge change in air today....the cold is snapping at us now

 

BFTP 

 

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Posted
  • Location: blackburn
  • Weather Preferences: heavy snow/ heatwaves
  • Location: blackburn
20 minutes ago, terrier said:

Wow just wow words fail me 68E8A03B-31CB-4044-9D5D-FDFB22691D67.thumb.png.3dc757671b63d11272514eb382610155.png:cold:

And me....I live in that hole ...very disturbing and it keeps showing up.

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Posted
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, Snow in Winter
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent
Just now, Youcan'tbecirrus said:

or rain.

 

16 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

If that low moves up like it is on GFS . Wow there is gonna be some snow . 

IMG_1760.PNG

The GFS Low if it verifies WILL cause a thaw and Snow to Rain event in the SE. Lets hope its just the progressive nature of GFS to breakdown and revert to norm.

Still worth keeping an eye on in later runs though.     

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

If my history tells me anything it is expect adjustments south from the GFS with this

Reason is simply the modl will decrease heights too fast and thus lp ends up too far north about 80 per cent of the time. The track is what I'd expect a 2 attempt to take.

Proper little winter storm though with snow, then an area of sleet or even freezing rain followed rapidly by snow. Shame it will be wrong...

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
15 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

The most likely sort of rain in that system would be freezing rain. That would cause chaos. 

You only get freezing rain if the upper air temps are above zero and ground temps below zero but if a mild sector does come in then ground temps will rise above zero as the flow is coming in from the North Sea so I don't see any risks of freezing rain from this event.

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