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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


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GFS showing some potentially huge amounts of snowfall from the south later next week, but takes the low further north with less cold uppers for the south by Friday. 

 

3257E0F9-4391-4880-B11F-176044697495-2835-0000031BE6DC173F.png

Edited by danm
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Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Cheers vizzy what bout T144 ?

UKMO seems to keep the low further south with cold uppers still across the whole country.

E6886865-5E1F-4131-940C-4383CF19EDA2-2835-0000031E2DB94CC0.gif

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1 minute ago, Tom Jarvis said:

The most likely sort of rain in that system would be freezing rain. That would cause chaos. 

Very good point and something to keep an eye on in regards to this system.

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Well another superb set of runs again, I think the medium range output is going to be defined by this low in the Azores. I expect it to make some progress northwards... however the GFS looks rather strange with no disruption and turning at a 90 degree angle as it moves into Europe.

I reckon it will take more of an ENE path, hopefully it will cross the channel giving me some heavy snow but we shall see. Southampton doesn't usually do too well from easterlies though it got a fair covering during January 1987 and February 1991 from what I've read.

UKMO looks a bit more realistic. Perhaps its just a case of GFS overdoing a dartboard low again :D.

The Greenland high isn't as extensive which increases the chance of the snowy events like this occuring, however a breakdown may come quicker. Still a long way off though and don't be surprised to see a cold high form over Scandi to put up a fight against the incoming low. Deep cold can be hard to shift.

 

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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It's incredibly amusing watching the GFS flail around like a drunk just dying to get some progressiveness into the run...

What's more though is that not even the LP-track of nightmares can warm up the 850s enough to prevent probable blizzard conditions.

gfs-0-192.png?12gfs-1-192.png?12

Still, in the bin for me.

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27 minutes ago, AWD said:

Won't the cold upper air start getting mixed out as any potential PPN hits southern counties though?

Looks a risk that some Mediterranean air might get into some southern counties there.

As ever, high risk but high reward if it comes off.  I'd rather have the risk of snowfall than no risk at all.

As long as the low disrupts and stays elongated the warmer uppers shouldn’t bother us.

Edit. MKN beat me to it.

Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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I note that on the Met Office synoptic charts for Monday, they have the Azores low pressure filling rapidly. If that continues if it gets to the UK it really will be a damp squib when it does.

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Next week looks unbelievable..the Gfs 12z shows max temps of minus 4 / 5 celsius later next week at the start of the meteorological spring plus huge amounts of snow and very deep drifts...gosh it's exciting:D

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Edited by Frosty.
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34 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO 144 much better with continued heavy snow across the UK

8706B89E-9E5E-4AF6-9FBC-636EC0AC3E76.thumb.png.a83420f777f6188692dc3b4fb3cbc735.png

Epic chart to be fair..... Got to be -17 or so in from the east...

 

I want my -50c easterlies....so we are getting there.  I agree re ICON, that could produce new records all round....and by some margin.  But if UKMO has it right.....that will do very nicely indeed.  

I have felt tge change in air today....the cold is snapping at us now

 

BFTP 

 

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Just now, Youcan'tbecirrus said:

or rain.

 

16 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

If that low moves up like it is on GFS . Wow there is gonna be some snow . 

IMG_1760.PNG

The GFS Low if it verifies WILL cause a thaw and Snow to Rain event in the SE. Lets hope its just the progressive nature of GFS to breakdown and revert to norm.

Still worth keeping an eye on in later runs though.     

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If my history tells me anything it is expect adjustments south from the GFS with this

Reason is simply the modl will decrease heights too fast and thus lp ends up too far north about 80 per cent of the time. The track is what I'd expect a 2 attempt to take.

Proper little winter storm though with snow, then an area of sleet or even freezing rain followed rapidly by snow. Shame it will be wrong...

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15 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

The most likely sort of rain in that system would be freezing rain. That would cause chaos. 

You only get freezing rain if the upper air temps are above zero and ground temps below zero but if a mild sector does come in then ground temps will rise above zero as the flow is coming in from the North Sea so I don't see any risks of freezing rain from this event.

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