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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I don't like Mondays but something tells me i will next week..great start to the Gfs 12z!:D:shok::cold:

    12_69_mslp850.png

    12_69_ukthickness850.png

    12_69_ukthickness.png

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    Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

    Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

    Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    34 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Anyway - models !

    ICON time

    its had a rough few runs now going with the shortwave dropping into the ridge - still on the table btw 

    Done it again.

    Pros and cons here. It would probably scupper any chance of the coldest March day record on the 1st. But it looks like it would bring a spell of snow through the country (dare I say marginal in the far west?!?). And it would probably prolong the cold (minus 16 uppers already back into the east by the end of Thursday on this run) because it will build cold back in behind the trough and the low to the south will be shut out.

    ECM had a few members go this way this morning - who fancies a wager we'll see this on the op run tonight??

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)

    All looking good so far on the GFS out to t90! Bitter cold in place from Monday and good placement of the high pressure. Large cold pool encroaching.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    ICON is most definitely an upgrade for the cold air much further north 12z compared with 00z

    12z

    icon-1-168.thumb.png.45f09b8ce3422ee646f59e5637a89cf7.png

    00z

    icon-1-180.thumb.png.b26ebd2c02edb8475bf6e3c0ec00b5b6.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

    Could easily reach sub -20C across the SE & where there is snowcover with this chart from the ICON!

    icon-0-168.png?23-12icon-1-168.png?23-12

    Edited by Panayiotis
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Ukmo t96, nice!!

    IMG_0615.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    1 minute ago, Panayiotis said:

    Could easily reach sub -20 across the SE where there is snowcover with this chart from the ICON!

    icon-0-165.png?23-12icon-1-168.png?23-12

    Looks like the ICON has given up here, just a mass of nothingness over the near continent and British Isles.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Even though its unlikely I like the ICON evolution-

    screams of record breakers...

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)

    UKMO 120 looking excellent again

     

    110A0770-4B62-49D4-93F4-7164B1C9BA71-2835-000003154BA9B9B0.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    GFS and UKMO pretty much on the same page at 120 so I would think ICON unlikely at this stage.

    the UKMO 144 looks like that low would bring a lot of snow next frame or two.

    UN144-21.GIF?23-17

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

    Thank you!

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